| 研究生: |
陳明勝 Chen, Ming-Sheng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
基於自然語言分析建構預測企業信用評等變動之模型 Construction of Corporate Credit Rating Prediction Model Based on Natural Language Analysis |
| 指導教授: |
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu 趙世偉 Chao, Shih-Wei |
| 口試委員: |
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu 趙世偉 Chao, Shih-Wei 徐之強 Hsu, Chih Chiang 許育進 Hsu, Yu Chin |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 50 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 自然語言分析 、神經網路 、領域遷移 、企業信用預警 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Natural Language Analysis, Neural Network, Domain Adaption, Corporate Credit Prediction |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202200901 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:89 下載:0 |
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為改進過去語言分析模型無法辨認語言一字多義以及訓練域與預測域不一致之問題,本研究嘗試以BERT(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers)模型針對金融領域文本進行領域遷移(Domain Adaption),比較有無經過遷移對模型效能之改進,接著以遷移過之模型分析RavenPack資料庫內所含的美國企業相關新聞,並以此建構信用評等變動預警模型。
本研究實證結果顯示,經過遷移之模型預測財金文本情緒的預測準確率比未經遷移之模型高出30.47%,且領域遷移後辨認的新聞情緒提升對未來企業信用評等變動的預測。另外,本研究建構四個隨機森林模型,用以證明企業金融財務面的媒體情緒隱含對企業未來評級可能變動的有效資訊。
To improve the inability of the language analysis model to recognize the polysemy of the language and the inconsistency between the training domain and the prediction domain, this study uses the BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) model to perform Domain Adaption for the financial corpus. The adaption improves the performance of the model, and we further use the adapted model to analyze the news related to US companies contained in the RavenPack database and construct an early warning model for credit rating changes.
The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy of the adapted model in predicting the sentiment of financial texts is 30.47% higher than that of the non-adapted one, which shows that adaption learning indeed improves the prediction of the corporate credit rating changes. Also, we developed four different random forest models to prove that the media sentiment on the company's financial news contains effective information on the possible changes in the company's future rating.
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究目的 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
2.1 衡量企業信用風險 3
2.2 文字分析模型 5
第三章 研究方法 10
3.1 BERT 模型 10
3.2 隨機森林 14
3.3 模型績效衡量指標 17
第四章 實證分析 22
4.1 資料處理 22
4.2 特徵生成 24
4.3 建構信用評等預警模型 28
4.4 各模型預警成效 31
第五章 結論與建議 45
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全文公開日期 2027/07/14