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研究生: 吳柔瑾
Wu, Jou-Chin
論文名稱: 複合模型與高維誤差變數下的遷移學習方法探討
Transfer learning for complex models and high-dimensional error-prone variables
指導教授: 陳立榜
Chen, Li-Pang
口試委員: 周珮婷
張欣民
黃偉恆
孫誠佑
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 商學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 144
中文關鍵詞: 高維資料分析測量誤差統計學習變數選取
外文關鍵詞: high-dimensional data analysis, measurement error, statistical learning, variable selection
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  • 遷移學習在統計分析中扮演著日益重要的角色,尤其當資料可用性快速成長及需要整合多個來源資料的資訊時。雖然目前已有大量方法利用來源資料提升目標資料的估計效果,但仍有許多重要問題尚未探討。本論文旨在針對包含測量誤差與其他複雜特徵的資料,研發適用的遷移學習方法。
    在第一章中,我們概述本論文,並回顧相關主題,包含複雜資料的統計模型、測量誤差模型與遷移學習及變數選取,並對每個主題進行文獻回顧。
    卜瓦松迴歸模型已成為描述計數型應變數及共變數關係的常用方法。隨著資料收集的快速發展,獲取額外的來源資訊已變得更為容易。為了有效地應用來源資料改善原始資料的估計效果,遷移學習方法被認為是一種策略。然而,給定資料集面臨的挑戰包括測量誤差和變數的高維度。在第二章中,我們提出了一種新的策略來處理具有測量誤差的計數型應變數,並使用來源資料估計測量誤差模型中的參數,然後採用遷移學習方法導出不偏估計量。此外,為了提高預測精準度並避免模型不確定性,我們進一步建立了模型平均策略。模擬和乳癌資料研究驗證了所提出方法的良好表現且能有效處理測量誤差的問題。
    在第三章中,我們研究了含有測量誤差共變數的無母數廣義相加模型(GAMs),並提出了一種新的基於測量誤差校正迴歸樹的遷移學習方法,以同時偵測資訊豐富的來源資料、變數選取和測量誤差校正的問題。同時,我們開發了方法偵測資訊豐富的來源資料及估計測量誤差模型中的未知變異數。模擬結果顯示,本文方法於非線性關係下,在預測精準度和變數選取方面均優於現有方法。將此方法應用於世界衛生組織全球衛生觀察站的真實死亡率資料,驗證了其實用性。
    在第四章中,我們分析了事件發生時間資料,並針對具有測量誤差共變數的加速失效模型提出了遷移學習方法。其中的挑戰包括:因設限而產生的不完整應變數、高維度設定中無關變數,以及資料收集過程中引入的測量誤差。為了同時解決多個資料集分析中的這些挑戰,我們採用了遷移學習方法,並結合了模擬外推法(SIMEX)及梯度提升演算法,從而有效地進行變數選取及校正測量誤差。我們進一步開發了一種基於交叉驗證的策略,用於偵測資訊豐富的來源資料集,並在不依賴輔助資訊的情況下估計測量誤差的變異數。所提出的方法適用於多種設限機制。大量的模擬研究以及對浸潤性小葉癌資料的實際應用,證實了本方法的有效性與優異的實證表現。
    最後,第五章總結了本論文,並討論了相關內容,同時展望未來的研究方向。


    Transfer learning plays an increasingly important role in statistical analysis, particularly with the rapid growth of data availability and the need to integrate information from multiple sources. While a large body of methods have been developed to leverage source data to improve estimation for target data, many important problems remain underexplored. In this dissertation, we focus on the development of transfer learning methods for data with measurement error and other complex features.

    In Chapter 1, we provide an introduction to the dissertation and review relevant topics including statistical models for complex data, measurement error models, and transfer learning and variable selection, and literature review for each topic.

    Poisson regression model has been a popular approach to characterize the count response and the covariates. With the rapid development of data collections, the additional source information can be easily recorded. To efficiently use the source data to improve the estimation under the original data, the transfer learning method is considered a strategy. However, challenging issues from the given datasets include measurement error and high-dimensionality in variables. In Chapter 2, we propose a novel strategy to handle error-prone count responses and estimate the parameters in measurement error models by using the source data, and then employ the transfer learning method to derive the debiased estimator. Moreover, to improve the prediction and avoid the model uncertainty, we further establish the model averaging strategy. Simulation and breast cancer data studies verify the satisfactory performance of the proposed method and the validity of handling measurement error.

    In Chapter 3, we study nonparametric generalized additive models (GAMs) with noisy covariates and propose a novel error-corrected regression tree-based transfer learning method to address informative source detection, variable selection, and error correction simultaneously. Meanwhile, we develop valid strategies for source data detection and estimation of unknown variances in measurement error models. Simulation results demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance in both prediction accuracy and variable selection compared to existing approaches, particularly under nonlinear relationships. An application to real-world mortality data from the WHO Global Health Observatory confirms the practical utility of our method.

    In Chapter 4, we analyze the time-to-event data and propose transfer learning for accelerated failure time models with noisy covariates, where the challenges include incomplete outcomes arising from censoring, the presence of irrelevant variables in high-dimensional settings, and measurement error introduced during data collection. To simultaneously address these challenges in the analysis of multiple datasets, we adopt the transfer learning method by incorporating the simulation and extrapolation (SIMEX) approach and the boosting algorithm, which together enable effective variable selection and correction for measurement error. We further develop a cross-validation-based strategy to identify informative source datasets and to estimate the measurement error variance without relying on auxiliary information. The proposed method is applicable to a broad class of censoring mechanisms. Extensive simulation studies and an application to invasive lobular carcinoma data demonstrate the validity and strong empirical performance of the proposed approach.

    Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes the dissertation with discussions and outlines future research.

    Abstract ................... i
    List of Tables ................... viii
    List of Figures ................... xi
    1 Introduction ................... 1
    1.1 Statistical Models for Complex Data ................... 1
    1.1.1 Poisson Regression Model ................... 2
    1.1.2 Generalized Additive Model (GAM) .................... 2
    1.1.3 Accelerated Failure Time Model for Survival Data ................... 2
    1.2 Measurement Error Models ................... 3
    1.2.1 Modeling Measurement Error with Continuous Variables ................... 3
    1.2.2 Modeling Measurement Error with Count Variables ................... 4
    1.3 Transfer Learning and Variable Selection ..................... 4
    1.4 Background and Relevant Literature Review .................... 6
    1.4.1 Error-Contaminated Poisson Regression Models ................... 6
    1.4.2 Nonparametric Generalized Additive Models with Noisy Covariates ................... 9
    1.4.3 Accelerated Failure Time Models for Survival Data and Noisy Covariates ................... 11
    1.5 Outline of the Dissertation ................... 12
    2 Transfer Learning for Error-Contaminated Poisson Regression Models ................... 14
    2.1 Notation and Models ................... 14
    2.1.1 Data Structure and Regression Models .................. 14
    2.1.2 Measurement Error Model ................... 15
    2.2 Methodology ................... 17
    2.2.1 Correction of Measurement Error ................... 17
    2.2.2 Transfer Learning with Measurement Error in Responses ................... 21
    2.2.3 Computational Implementation via Local Quadratic Approximation ................... 25
    2.3 Estimation with Unknown Parameters in Measurement Error Models ................... 26
    2.4 Model Averaging ................... 28
    2.5 Numerical Studies ................... 30
    2.5.1 Simulation Setup ................... 30
    2.5.2 Simulation Results ................... 31
    2.6 Real Data Analysis ................... 33
    2.6.1 Data Description ................... 33
    2.6.2 Analysis Results ................... 34
    3 Transfer Learning for Nonparametric Generalized Additive Models with Noisy Covariates ................... 66
    3.1 Notation and Models ................... 66
    3.1.1 Data Structure ................... 66
    3.1.2 Measurement Error Model ................... 67
    3.2 Methodology ................... 68
    3.2.1 Transfer Learning for Nonparametric Generalized Additive Models ................... 68
    3.2.2 Detection of Source Data ................... 71
    3.3 Transfer Learning with Measurement Error in Covariates ................... 72
    3.3.1 Estimation with Measurement Error Correction ................... 72
    3.3.2 Estimation with Unknown Variance in Measurement Error Models ................... 74
    3.4 Numerical Studies ................... 75
    3.4.1 Simulation Setup ................... 75
    3.4.2 Simulation Results ................... 77
    3.5 Real Data Analysis ................... 80
    3.5.1 Data Description ................... 80
    3.5.2 Analysis Results ................... 81
    4 Transfer Learning for Accelerated Failure Time Models with Noisy Covariates ................... 100
    4.1 Notation and Models ................... 100
    4.1.1 Data Structure and Accelerated Failure Time Model ................... 100 4.1.2 Measurement Error Model ................... 101
    4.2 Methodology ................... 102
    4.2.1 Construction of Estimating Function ................... 102
    4.2.2 Two-Stage Transfer Learning Framework with SIMEXBoost ................... 104
    4.2.3 Detection of Source Data ................... 107
    4.2.4 Estimation with Unknown Variance in Measurement Error Models ................... 109
    4.3 Numerical Studies ................... 111
    4.3.1 Simulation Setup ................... 111
    4.3.2 Simulation Results ................... 113
    4.4 Real Data Analysis ................... 115
    4.4.1 Data Description ................... 115
    4.4.2 Analysis Results ................... 116
    5 Summary and Discussion ................... 134
    References ................... 137

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