隨著永續氣候議題與轉型風險日益受到重視，各國政府相繼推出更嚴格的氣候相關法規，企業所面臨的碳排放管理壓力也與日俱增。在此背景下，如何有效降低碳排放、同時維持穩定的財務表現，已成為企業經營的重要課題。然而，現有研究多聚焦於單一年度的靜態碳排放水準，較少探討企業長期累積的減碳努力是否真正降低了其面臨的營運風險。此外，在永續金融制度快速發展的背景下，永續經濟活動等制度性分類標準能否強化市場對企業減碳成效的認可，亦尚缺乏系統性的實證研究。
本研究以自然資源基礎觀點(Natural-Resource-Based View, NRBV)為理論核心，探討企業累積三年碳排放強度變化、永續經濟活動認定與企業營業風險之間的關係，並進一步檢視永續經濟活動認定能否強化累積減碳成效對降低營業風險的效果。研究以2018至2022年台灣上市櫃公司為樣本，進行全產業分析，並進一步針對鋼鐵業與水泥業兩大高碳排產業建構子樣本進行檢驗。營業風險以資產報酬率標準差與個股報酬特有波動度三年平均值兩種代理變數加以衡量。
實證結果顯示，在全產業樣本中，企業累積碳排放強度的改善能顯著降低未來的盈餘波動，顯示長期減碳能力已在內部財務穩定性上產生可量測的效益。在高碳排產業的永續經濟活動認定的直接效果上，僅達最低認定門檻的企業，其市場特有波動度反而較高，顯示處於轉型初期的企業短期內面臨較高的市場不確定性。在調節效果上，永續經濟活動認定確實能強化累積碳排改善對降低盈餘波動的邊際效果，但在市場特有風險的定價層面，受限於制度推行初期的訊號可信度不足與代理衝突的干擾，調節效果尚未能穩健顯現。

As climate regulations tighten globally, firms face mounting pressure to manage carbon emissions while maintaining stable financial performance. Yet existing research has largely focused on static, single-period carbon emission levels, leaving open the question of whether long-term, cumulative carbon abatement efforts genuinely reduce operational risk. Moreover, whether institutional sustainability classifications, such as sustainable economic activity (SEA) recognition, can strengthen market confidence in firms' carbon reduction achievements remains empirically underexplored.
Drawing on the Natural-Resource-Based View, this study examines the relationships among cumulative three-year carbon emission intensity change, SEA recognition, and corporate operational risk, and tests whether SEA recognition moderates the risk-reducing effect of cumulative carbon abatement. Using Taiwan-listed firms from 2018 to 2022, the study conducts both a full-industry analysis and a sub-sample analysis focused on the steel and cement sectors. Operational risk is proxied by the standard deviation of return on assets and the three-year average idiosyncratic volatility.
Results show that cumulative carbon intensity improvements significantly reduce future earnings volatility in the full sample. In high-carbon industries, firms at the minimum SEA threshold exhibit higher idiosyncratic volatility, reflecting elevated market uncertainty during early-stage transition. SEA recognition amplifies the marginal risk-reducing effect of carbon abatement on earnings volatility; however, its moderating effect on market-level risk pricing remains inconclusive, constrained by nascent institutional credibility and persistent agency conflicts.

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