我以台灣資本市場在1991至2010年之上市公司作為樣本，研究資
本市場發展程度對於企業現金股利之資訊內涵的影響。我們首先觀察支
付公司數占整體上市公司數比重以及加權平均股利發放率，發現台灣資
本市場並不存在消失股利的現象。接著透過羅吉斯模型、Life Regression
Tobit Model以及多變量迴歸分析，分別對台灣上市公司發放股利傾向、
股利發放率，以及現金股利宣告效果進行分析。我發現儘管我國不存在
股利消失現象，資本市場發展程度的確負向影響公司發放股利傾向、股
利支付率，以及宣告增發股利時的宣告效果，代表現金股利的資訊意涵
卻隨資本市場發展而弱化。另外機構投資人持股比率上升，顯著降低了
現金股利的宣告效果。唯本土機構投資人持股比例越高，公司發放股利
的傾向隨之增加，呼應了我國資本市場對於股利仍有一定的重視程度及
偏好。

The main contribution of this article is that I use the variable of development
of capital market as the main reason resulting in the decrease of the likelihood of
companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, and it also
weakens the announce effect of cash dividends.
There are some results we can see in this investigation. First, through
observing the trend of the percentage of cash-dividend –payer firms to all TWSE
firms and the trend of market value weighted payout ratio, we can see there is no
“disappearing dividends” phenomenon in Taiwan capital market from 1991 to
2010.
Second, the development of capital market not only decreases the likelihood
of companies to pay cash dividends and cash dividends payout ratio, but also
weakens the announce effect of cash dividends.
Third, the more shares held by institutional investors, the weaker announce
effect caused by cash dividends announcement. However, firms with higher
percentage of shares held by local institutional investors are much likely to pay
dividends. It somehow means that cash dividends are preferred and respected.

一、 中文部分
江淑玲(1998)，「我國上市公司股利政策之研究」，國立政治大學會計學系博士班博士
論文，民國87年6 月。
方以唐(2005)，「股票股利消失?台灣上市公司股利政策之探討」，國立東華大學國際
經濟研究所未出版之碩士論文。
陳憲民(1989)，「台灣上市公司股利政策趨勢與公司特性之研究」，銘傳大學國際企業
管理研究所未出版之碩士論文。
黃桂榮(1997)，「企業特性與交易市場對股票股利資訊內涵影響程度之研究」，政治大
學會計學研究所未出版之碩士論文。
王象康(2006)，「台灣上市公司現金股利與庫藏股政策之探討」，交通大學財務金融研
究所未出版之碩士論文。
王錦瑩(2002) ，「台灣上市公司盈餘分配行為對股價影響之研究」，國立政治大學企
業管理研究所博士論文。
湯翠萍(2004)，「財務彈性-上市公司實施庫藏股之實證研究」，國立中山大學財務管
理研究所未出版之碩士論文。

二、 英文部分
Asquith, P., and D. Mullins (1983), “The impact of initiating dividend payments on
shareholders’ wealth,” Journal of Business, 56, 77-96.
Baker, M. and J. Wurgler (2004), “ A catering theory of dividends,” Journal of Finance, 59,
1125-1165.
Bhattacharya, S. (1979), “Imperfect information, dividend policy, and ‘The bird-in-the-hand’
fallacy,” Bell Journal of Economics, 10, 259-270.
Demirgüç, A. and R. Levine (2001), “Bank-based and market-based financial systems:
Cross-country comparison, in Demirgüç, A. and R. Levine Eds., Financial Structure and
Economic Growth: Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Markets and Development,
Cambridge,” MA, MIT Press, 81-140.
Denis, D.J. and I. Osobov (2008), “Why do firms pay dividend? International evidence on the
determinants of dividend policy,” Journal of Financial Economics, 89, 62-82.
Easterbrook, F.H. (1984), “Two agency-cost explanations of dividends, American Economic
Review 74,” 650-659.
Fama, E. F., and K.R. French (2001), “Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics
or lower propensity to pay?” Journal of Financial Economics, 60, 3- 44.
Gordon, M. J. (1963), “Optimal Investment and Financing Policy,” Journal of Finance, 60,
1389-14265
Grullon, G., R. Michaely, S. Benartzi, and R.H. Thaler (2005), “Dividend changes do not
signal changes in future profitability,” Journal of Business, 78, 1659-1682.
Hoberg, Gerard, and Nagpurnanand Prabhala (2009), “Disappearing dividends, catering, and
risk,” Review of Financial Studies, 22, 79-116.
Jensen, M.C. (1986), “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers,”
American Economic Review, 76, 323-329.
Jensen, M.C. and W. H. Meckling (1976), “Theory of the Firm : Managerial Behavior,
Agency Costs and Ownership Structur,” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 305-360.
Miller M. H. and F. Modigliani (1961), “Dididend Policy, Growth and Valuation of Shares,”
Journal of Business.
Yakov Amihud and Kefei Li (2006), “The Declining Information Content of Dividend
Announcements and the Effects of Institutional Holdings,” Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, 637-660.
Yaniv Grinstein and Roni Michaely (2005), “Institutional Holdings and Payout Policy,”
Journal of Finance , 60, 1389-1426.