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研究生: 鄭家佶
Zheng, Jia-Ji
論文名稱: COVID-19期間美國貨幣政策衝擊對台灣的傳遞效果: 以事件研究法分析
Pass-Through of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks on Taiwan During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Event Study Analysis
指導教授: 荒井夏來
Natsuki, Arai
口試委員: 郭炳伸
Kuo, Biing-Shen
林軒馳
Lin, Hsuan-Chih
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: COVID-19 危機貨幣政策衝擊傳遞效果事件研究法台灣經濟
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101727
相關次數: 點閱:127下載:48
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  • 2020年COVID-19席捲全球,聯邦基金利率自2008年全球金融危機以來再次觸底,美國量化寬鬆政策回歸,對世界經濟產生外溢效果。本文運用事件研究法,選定COVID-19期間重要的貨幣政策公告時點,通過台灣公司債券與公債殖利率、匯率、股價三個管道,分析美國整體貨幣政策與非傳統貨幣政策衝擊對台灣的傳遞效果是否存在,並使用日內資料 (Intraday data),以認定純粹的衝擊效果。而本文研究結果為:
    1.美國整體擴張貨幣政策衝擊對台灣公司債殖利率、台美交叉匯率沒有顯著傳遞效果,存在降低台灣公債殖利率以及使台灣股價下挫的微小傳遞效果,效果在債市與股市之間有替代關係。
    2.美國非傳統貨幣政策衝擊存在使台幣相對美元升值的微小傳遞效果。然而非傳統衝擊通過美國公債殖利率對台灣股價並沒有傳遞效果,唯通過MBS指數使台灣股價下挫的傳遞效果存在,顯示美國QE政策主要透過風險證券衝擊台灣股市,但效果可能非常有限。
    3.相較於整體貨幣政策,美國非傳統貨幣政策衝擊致使台灣公債殖利率下降之傳遞效果較大。


    第一章 緒論 1
    第二章 文獻探討 5
    第三章 研究方法 7
    第一節 事件研究法與主要模型設定 7
    第二節 資料與背景 8
    第四章 實證結果與分析 23
    第一節 日資料分析 23
    第二節 日內資料分析 33
    第五章 結論與建議 44
    參考文獻 46
    附錄一、FED與貨幣政策工具 48
    附錄二、研究限制 50

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