| 研究生: |
惠郁修 Hui, Yu-Hsiu |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
運用LSTM及投資組合優化模型建立基於0050成分股的交易策略 Using LSTM and portfolio optimization model to establish an investment strategy based on 0050 |
| 指導教授: |
蕭明福
Shaw, Ming-Fu 廖四郎 Liao, Szu-Lang |
| 口試委員: |
蕭明福
Shaw, Ming-Fu 廖四郎 Liao, Szu-Lang 林建秀 Lin, Chien-Hsiu 黃俊仁 Huang, Chun-Jen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 66 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 資產管理 、長時間短期記憶神經網路 、平均數-變異數模型 、MVF模型 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | portfolio management, Long-Short Term Model, Mean-Variance model, Mean–variance with forecasting model |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:38 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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在過去投資組合管理的研究上,多是利用傳統的投資組合理論進行資產管理,而近年來越來越多的研究將人工智能用於優化投資組合,本文嘗試以元大台灣50 ETF之成分股為基礎,結合長時間短期記憶神經網路來預測股價的下期變動,再從中選取預測報酬率較高的多檔股票完成股票篩選,最後結合三種資產權重配置的方法建構風險分散投資組合,分別為等權重、選取最小變異數的平均數-變異數模型以及考慮了預測報酬率的MVF模型。
實證結果發現在大部分的時間段裡,運用長時間短期記憶神經網路進行選股的交易策略皆呈現較高的報酬,無論是結合等權重、平均數-變異數模型及MVF的方法進行資產權重配置,投資績效皆能優於元大台灣50 ETF,顯示長時間短期記憶神經網路在投資組合當中具有一定程度的貢獻,而在實際交易情況下,則是結合等權重、平均數-變異數模型呈現較好之績效。
In the past research on investment portfolio management, most of them used traditional investment portfolio theory for asset management. In recent years, more and more researches have used artificial intelligence to optimize investment portfolios. In this thesis, we try to use the constituent stocks of the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF as the basis and combine the Long-Short Term Model to predict the next stock price change. Then select multiple stocks with higher predicted returns. Finally, three asset weight allocation methods are combined to construct a risk-diversified investment portfolio, which are equal weight, the mean-variance model with the minimum variance selected, and the Mean–variance with forecasting model considering the predicted rate of return.
The empirical results found that the trading strategy of using Long-Short Term Model for stock selection has higher returns in most time periods. Regardless of the method of asset weight allocation combined with equal weight, mean-variance model and Mean–variance with forecasting model, the investment performance can be better than Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF. Shows that the Long-Short Term Model has a certain degree of contribution in the investment portfolio. In the actual trading situation, the combination of equal weight and mean-variance model presents better performance.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 股價預測方法相關文獻 3
第二節 投資組合理論相關文獻 4
第三章 研究方法 6
第一節 長時間短期記憶網路 6
第二節 Mean-Variance模型 9
第三節 MVF模型 11
第四章 實證分析 13
第一節 實證流程 13
第二節 深度學習模型預測股票漲跌幅 14
第三節 投資組合權重配置 22
第四節 實證結果 24
第五章 結論與建議 30
第一節 結論 30
第二節 未來展望 30
參考文獻 31
附錄 33
附錄一 TOP10個股選取次數 33
附錄二 TOP10選股結果 35
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全文公開日期 2028/06/25