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研究生: 蔡素娟
Tsai, Shu-Chuan
論文名稱: 租稅負擔與人口流動—以台灣各縣市為例
Tax Burden and Internal Migration—Evidence from Counties and Cities in Taiwan
指導教授: 黃智聰
口試委員: 葉凱莉
鄭政秉
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 行政管理碩士學程
Master for Eminent Public Administrators
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 61
中文關鍵詞: 租稅負擔有效稅率平均稅率人口流動
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/THE.NCCU.MEPA.017.2018.F09
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  • 本論文主要的研究目的在於研究台灣各縣市租稅負擔對人口流動的影響。本文利用1995至2010年共16年台灣23縣市的追蹤資料進行研究。在研究方法上,經過多個檢定方法的檢定結果顯示,二元固定效果模型是最佳的實證模型,因此本論文採用此實證模型進行估計。在租稅負擔的變數設定方面,本論文分別採用有效稅率(模型一)與平均稅率(模型二)進行實證估計。由於經過成對解釋變數的相關係數與VIF的估計顯示,解釋變數之間並未有共線性的問題,因此可以確定本論文的估計應有一定的準確性。本論文主要的研究發現為,租稅負擔(不論是有效稅率或平均稅率)在統計上確實對台灣各縣市的人口淨流入率具有負向的影響。此外,每人享有社會福利支出、每戶每年實質可支配所得、服務業就業人口所占比例、是否有地方首長選舉,都對各縣市的人口淨流入率有正向的影響。本論文的結論支持Tiebout(1956)所提出之「以腳投票」理論、Borjas’s(1999)所提出福利磁吸假說、以及Huang and Chang(2017)所提出存在幽靈選民。


    The main purpose of this thesis is researching the Influence of tax burden to internal migration from counties and cities in Taiwan. This research is conducted by the tracking data from 23 counties and cities in Taiwan within16years from 1995 to 2010. Take much verification methods into accounts, the result illustrates that two-factor model is the best empirical model,therefore, this thesis takes this pratical modle as the method to estimate.In terms of the virable of tax burden, the thesis conducts effecive tax rate (model one)and average tax rate(model two) seperately. Because of the illustrating by correlation coefficient and VIF, there is no colinearity concern within explaination virable. Therefor, the thesis is quite accuracy. The main study found is that tax burden has negative effect on the rate of social increase rate of population no matter by using effecive tax rate or average tax rate. Besids,there are some facts which may have positive effct on the rate of net internal migration such as social welfare expenditure 、 substantial disposable income、the percentage of service industry and whether there is local head election or not. The conclusion of this thesis supports the theory of voting by foot,Tiebout(1956)、welfare magnetic hypothesis,Borjas's(1999) and the exsiting of ghost voter,Huang and Chang(2017).

    目 次
    第一章 前言……………………………………………………1
    第一節 研究背景與目的………………………………………1
    第二節 研究架構與進行流程…………………………………7
    第二章 文獻回顧………………………………………………10
    第一節 人口流動理論…………………………………………10
    第二節 影響人口流動之相關文獻……………………………13
    第三節 探討台灣地區人口流動之相關文獻…………………16
    第三章 租稅負擔與人口流動現況分析………………………19
    第一節 台灣各縣市的淨流入率………………………………19
    第二節 台灣各縣市的租稅負擔………………………………23
    第四章 研究方法………………………………………………26
    第一節 實證模型說明…………………………………………26
    第二節 模型設定與資料來源…………………………………32
    第三節 變數之設定與假設……………………………………36
    第五章 實證結果分析…………………………………………40
    第一節 實證結果分析…………………………………………40
    第二節 區域與時間特質效果估計分析………………………48
    第三節 解釋變數間相關性檢定………………………………51
    第六章 結論與政策建議………………………………………53
    第一節 結論……………………………………………………53
    第二節 政策建議………………………………………………55
    參考文獻………………………………………………………57

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    三、政府出版品
    內政部統計處(1994-2005),《中華民國台閩地區人口統計》。台北市:行
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    台北市:監察院審計部。

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