本研究探討景氣循環與總體經濟因子對臺灣人身保險保費收入之影響，以2008年至2025年之月資料為研究樣本，分析總保費收入以及壽險、健康險、傷害險及年金險等四類保險商品。研究選取景氣對策信號、失業率、消費者信心指數、公債利率、消費者物價指數、匯率及股價指數等變數，並採用多元線性迴歸模型（OLS）與向量自我迴歸模型（VAR）進行分析。研究結果顯示，景氣循環與總體經濟因子對保費收入有顯著影響，且不同險種具高度異質性與時間遞延效果。在短期當期影響上，失業率與消費者物價指數攀升會大幅削弱購買力，對總保費與壽險收入產生顯著負向衝擊。在動態傳導上，健康險與傷害險因損失規避心理而展現出逆景氣循環特性。特別值得關注的是年金險，其對經濟變數反應最快，落後期僅一期。當景氣對策信號與股價指數上揚，財富效果顯著帶動年金險需求；同時，失業率上升引發對所得中斷之焦慮，亦促使大眾增加年金險配置以防禦長壽風險。本研究證實多數總體經濟衝擊對保費收入具有時間遞延效果，顯示保險需求對經濟環境變化之反應並非立即發生。

This study examines the effects of business cycles and macroeconomic factors on premium income in Taiwan’s life insurance market. Using monthly data from 2008 to 2025, the study analyzes total premium income as well as premiums from individual life insurance, health insurance, accident insurance, and annuity insurance. The explanatory variables include the Business Cycle Indicator, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Government Bond Yield, Consumer Price Index, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Index. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models are employed for empirical analysis. The results indicate that business cycles and macroeconomic factors significantly affect premium income, demonstrating high product heterogeneity and distinct time-lag effects. In the short term, rising unemployment and inflation severely constrain purchasing power, creating a significant negative shock on total and life insurance premiums. Dynamically, health and accident insurance exhibit countercyclical characteristics driven by consumers' loss aversion. Particularly notable is annuity insurance, which reacts fastest with merely a one-period lag. Upward trends in economic indicators and stock markets boost annuity demand through the wealth effect. Simultaneously, rising unemployment provokes anxiety over income interruption, prompting consumers to increase annuity allocations to hedge against longevity risks. This study confirms that most macroeconomic shocks have a time-lag effect on premium income, indicating that the response of insurance demand to changes in the economic environment is not immediate.

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