本文旨在探討央行數位貨幣（Central Bank Digital Currency，以下簡稱CBDC）之發行政策及外部衝擊，對小型開放經濟體系中資產配置、匯率動態與財政調整之影響。本文利用資產組合平衡學派的模型架構，建構一個具備存量—流量一致性的動態總體經濟模型。不同於傳統模型，本文將具備計息功能與便利性利得之 CBDC 作為全新的資產納入模型中，並引入 CBDC 數量干預法則與政府預算限制，允許政府透過發行 CBDC 來融通財政赤字。在此架構下，本文比較恆常性與暫時性 CBDC 擴張政策在未預期與預料到情境下的效果，並探討外國利率上升衝擊所引發的調整過程。
本研究發現：（一）若央行實施無預警之恆常性 CBDC 擴張，財富效果將引發民間消費擴張與經常帳惡化，使匯率在衝擊瞬間產生跳躍式的劇烈貶值。（二）若央行改採預料到的暫時性 CBDC 擴張政策，民眾的預期會提前改變並提供跨期預調整空間，使得匯率在政策宣告當下的跳躍幅度降至最低，有效緩解短期震盪。（三）若面臨外國利率上升的衝擊，引發資本外流與匯率貶值壓力時，央行將透過數量干預函數來調節 CBDC 的發行數量，透過收縮國內流動性來推升本國資產的隱含相對報酬，此舉能抵銷部分資本外逃動機，相較於毫無干預的被動策略，採取積極的干預策略能有效縮小匯率超幅調整的幅度。

This study investigates the effects of central bank digital currency (CBDC) supply policies and external shocks on asset allocation, exchange rate dynamics, and fiscal adjustment in a small open economy. Using the portfolio balance approach, this study develops a dynamic macroeconomic model characterized by stock–flow consistency. Unlike conventional models, the framework incorporates an interest-bearing CBDC that provides a convenience yield as a new asset within the financial system. It also introduces a quantitative CBDC intervention rule and a government budget constraint, under which the government may finance fiscal deficits through CBDC issuance. Within this framework, the study compares the effects of permanent and temporary CBDC expansion policies under anticipated and unanticipated scenarios and examines the adjustment process triggered by an increase in the foreign interest rate.
The main findings are as follows. First, an unanticipated permanent expansion in CBDC supply generates a wealth effect that stimulates private consumption and worsens the current account, causing the exchange rate to depreciate sharply upon impact. Second, when the central bank instead adopts an anticipated temporary CBDC expansion policy, private agents adjust their expectations in advance, allowing for intertemporal pre-adjustment. As a result, the exchange rate adjustment at the time of the policy announcement is minimized, thereby effectively mitigating short-run fluctuations. Third, when an increase in the foreign interest rate triggers capital outflows and depreciation pressure, the central bank adjusts the quantity of CBDC through its quantitative intervention rule. By contracting domestic liquidity, this policy raises the implicit relative return on domestic assets and partially offsets the incentive for capital flight. Compared with a passive no-intervention strategy, active intervention effectively reduces the magnitude of exchange rate overshooting.

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