| 研究生: |
謝淑惠 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣地區股價泡沫現象之檢定 |
| 指導教授: | 林祖嘉 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系 Department of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 1991 |
| 畢業學年度: | 79 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 69 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:275 下載:0 |
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第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的.............................1
第二節 研究方法與本文架構.............................3
第二章 泡沫現象理論與實證文獻回顧
第一節 前言.............................5
第二節 泡沫現象理論文獻回顧.............................5
第三節 泡沫現象實證文獻回顧.............................11
第三章 實證模型之建立
第一節 前言.............................24
第二節 Hausman 設立檢定法(Specification test)之簡介.............................25
第三節 實證模型之建立.............................27
第四章 實證結果分析
第一節 前言.............................33
第二節 資料來源說明.............................33
第三節 研究方法及實證結果.............................34
第五章 結論及建議
第一節 結論.............................58
第二節 建議.............................58
附錄一 根據Hannan and Ouinn(1979)所得最適落差階次選擇.............................60
一、英文部份
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Hannan,E. J. and B. G. Quinn,"The Deteraination of the order of an Autoregression ."Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series, B XLI (1979), p190~195
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Jean Tirole (1985) "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations" Econolletrica 53, 6, (Dec), P1499~1528.
John Y. Compell and Robert J. Shiller, "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends", The Journal of Finance, Vol XLII No3. July 1988,P661~676.
Kenneth D. West (1987)"A Specification test for Speculative Bubbles". Quarterly Journal of Economics, P663 ~580.
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Lintner, John. "Distribution of Incomes of Coporations Among Dividends,Retained Earnings, and Taxes, "American Economic Review Proceedings, May 1956,66,P97 ~113.
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Marsh, Terry and Robert Merton (1986), "Dividend Volatility and Variance Bounds Test for the Rationality of Stock Market Prices" American Economic Review 76.3, P483 ~498.
Obstfeld,M. and K.Rogoff, "Ruring Out Nonstationary Speculative Bubbles" forthcoming, Journal of Monetary Economics, (1986).
Robert Shiller "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior" AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, MAY 1990.P58~62.
Robert Shiller "The Marsh-Merton Model of Manaigier's Smoothing of Dividends" American Economic Review. (June) 1986, P499 ~.
Shiller, Robert (1981), "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Bo Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dvidends? American Ecorioaic Reviey 71.3 (June) P421~436.
Shiller. Robert J." Stock Prices and Social Dynamics " Brookings Papers Econ. Activity, no. 2 (1984) ,P457~498.
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二.中文部份
張麗蕙,台灣股價波動之總體經濟因素分西析,國立政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文,民國78年。
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