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研究生: 蘇嘉勛
Jose Alfredo Sosa
論文名稱: 自動化對宏都拉斯製造業的就業影響
Automation and its effect on employment in Honduras manufacturing industry
指導教授: 吳文傑
Wu, Jack
口試委員: 何小台
Ho, Chester
劉助
Liu, James
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 自動化就業製造業宏都拉斯
外文關鍵詞: Automation, Employment, Manufacturing industry, Honduras
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMBA.012.2019.F08
相關次數: 點閱:89下載:9
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  • The impact that automation and the introduction of new technologies have on employment has been a subject of study for decades. Technological advances throughout history have deeply altered the employment structure of economies in all parts of the world. Since the first industrial revolution in 1760, workers began to question and somewhat fear the introduction of technologies that would automate tasks and even eliminate entire jobs.
    The focus of this research lies in evaluating the effects automation has had on the manufacturing industry of Honduras. In order to achieve this, a number of quantitative and qualitative sources of data were evaluated. These include studies and researches on the topics of automation, employment and reshaping of skills, reports and statistics on Honduras macroeconomic data as well as employment trends and impact of foreign investment. Finally, an interview was conducted with an expert in technology implementations to gain a first-hand perspective in the subject of automation in Honduras.
    After the evaluation of this data, the following key results were obtained: A gradual transition into more deeply automated manufacturing plants in Honduras is expected in the long run. For now, the country’s low labor costs act as a cost-effective way for international companies to continue manufacturing their products. Developed countries with higher levels of education will not be severely affected by automation. These countries have a larger number of workers who possess higher skill levels and whose jobs are not easily automatable. Underdeveloped economies like Honduras should stress the implementation of policies that will enhance their population’s skills and education levels, these policies should serve to enhance the quality of life at all levels of society.

    1. Introduction 1
    1.1. Objectives 2
    1.1.1. General 2
    1.1.2. Specific 2
    2. Literature Review 3
    2.1. What is Automation? 3
    2.2. Automation & Employment in History - Theories and Facts 4
    2.2.1. Keynes & Technological Unemployment - 1930 4
    2.2.2. Sector Economic Model by Fisher, Clark & Fourastiè - 1939 5
    2.2.3. Schumpeter & Creative Destruction - 1950 6
    2.2.4. Shaiken & the Evaluation of the American Industry - 1984 7
    2.2.5. Zuboff & the Age of the Smart Machine - 1989 7
    2.2.6. Rifkin & the Decline of the Global Labor Force - 1995 8
    2.2.7. Levy, Murnane & the New Division of Labor - 2004 9
    2.2.8. Cowen & the Great Stagnation - 2011 10
    2.2.9. McAfee, Brynjolfsson & the Race against the Machine - 2011 10
    2.2.10. Frey, Osborne & the Future of Employment - 2013 12
    2.2.11. Automation in OECD Countries by Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn - 2016 14
    2.2.12. McKinsey’s Views on Automation, Employment & Productivity - 2017 17
    2.2.13. PricewaterhouseCoopers & the Impact of Automation - 2018 20
    3. Research Question 25
    3.1. Hypothesis 25
    4. Country Overview: Honduras 26
    4.1. Economic Landscape 27
    4.1.1. Exports 27
    4.1.2. 4.1.2. Imports 29
    4.2. The Manufacturing Industry 30
    4.2.1. National Perspective & Background 30
    4.2.2. Gross Output (GO) 31
    4.2.3. Gross Value Added (GVA) 32
    4.2.4. Contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 32
    4.2.5. Commercial Balance 34
    4.3. Employment Trend 36
    4.3.1. Industry Participants 38
    4.4. Projections 40
    4.4.1. Plan Honduras 20/20 40
    4.4.2. Direct Investment 41
    4.5. Risks & Rewards 44
    5. Methodology 45
    5.1. Research Method 45
    5.1.1. Pragmatism 45
    5.1.2. Positivism 46
    5.1.3. Realism 46
    5.1.4. Interpretivism 46
    5.1.5. Selected Research Ideology 47
    5.2. Data Collection 47
    5.2.1. Primary Data 47
    5.2.2. Secondary Data 48
    5.3. Data Analysis 49
    6. Results 50
    6.1. Impact of New Technologies on the Labor Market 50
    6.2. Winners and Losers in Industry 4.0 51
    6.3. Costs and Benefits of Automation 52
    6.4. What does the Future Hold? 53
    7. Conclusions & Limitations 54
    8. References 57
    9. Appendix 60

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