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研究生: 謝長杰
Hsieh, Chang-Chieh
論文名稱: 應用長短期記憶神經網絡於指數型基金之研究
A Study of ETFs Trading Strategy Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks
指導教授: 胡毓忠
Hu, Yuh-Jong
口試委員: 林士貴
Lin, Shih-Kuei
李韋憲
Li, Wei-Hsien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 資訊科學系碩士在職專班
Excutive Master Program of Computer Science
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 39
中文關鍵詞: 交易策略小波轉換長短期記憶神經網絡
外文關鍵詞: Trading strategy, Wavelet transform, LSTM
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202100813
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  • 近年來,長短期記憶(LSTM)技術被廣泛用於預測金融市場的資產價格走勢。然而,這些研究方法中只有少數可以帶來實際利潤。因此本研究提出了一種新的混合模型,稱為動態WT-FLF-LSTM,它在一定的損失函數下結合了小波變換和LSTM。我們評估了六個主要市場ETF的交易策略。盈利表現在所有市場均有大幅提升。所有市場的最大跌幅都在20%以內,而平均交易日在11到16天之間。這一結果表明我們的模型適用於現實世界的交易。此外,我們的模型在大多數金融市場中的表現優於買入並持有策略的基準。為了顯示我們方法的穩健性,我們在台灣50ETF上測試了長期策略,並獲得了30.82%的年化回報率和1.07的夏普比率。


    In recent years, the Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) technique widely used to predict asset price movements in the financial market. However, in practice, only a few of these studies’ methods could lead to actual profits. This paper presents a novel hybrid model called dynamic WTFLFLSTM, which combines wavelet transform and LSTM under a certain loss function. We evaluate the trading strategy in six significant markets’ ETF. The profitability performance has a substantial enhancement in all markets. The maximum drawdown in all markets is contained within 20%, while the average trading days are between 11 and 16. This outcome indicates the suitability of our model for real world trading. Furthermore, our model outperforms the benchmark of a buyandhold strategy in most financial markets. To show our method’s robustness, we test the longshot strategy on the Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050.TW) and obtain an annualized return of 30.82% and a Sharpe ratio 1.07. Our study provides a robust trading system with a lower forecasting error.

    1 Introduction 1
    2 Literature 3
    3 Methodology 6
    3.1 Wavelet Transform 6
    3.2 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 9
    3.2.1 LSTM Algorithm 9
    3.2.2 Forex Loss Function (FLF) 11
    3.3 Trading Strategy 12
    3.4 System Pipeline 14
    4 Empirical Analysis 17
    4.1 Data Description 17
    4.2 Profitability Comparison 18
    4.3 Mean Square Error Comparison 27
    4.4 Profitability of the Long-short Strategy 27
    5 Conclusions 33
    6 Future Work 35
    Reference 36

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