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研究生: 寇菲力
論文名稱: 論貨幣政策與資產價格
Essays on Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
指導教授: 林佐裕
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
International Doctor Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IDAS)
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 85
中文關鍵詞: 貨幣政策資產價格
外文關鍵詞: Monetary
相關次數: 點閱:101下載:22
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  • This thesis consists of two essays on the relations
    hip between monetary policy and
    asset price dynamics. The first essay examines the
    extent to which Greece, Ireland,
    Portugal and Spain experienced property bubbles and
    investigates the role of
    European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy in th
    e formation of these bubbles in
    the period from 1999 to 2012. The analysis shows th
    at Spain and Ireland experienced
    the largest bubble formation followed by Portugal a
    nd Greece. Cointegration tests and
    VEC impulse responses indicate a significant long-
    and short-run relationship
    between ECB’s monetary policy and bubble formation
    in Greece, Ireland and Spain.
    The second essay examines long- and short-run dynam
    ics between global commodity
    prices, economic activity and monetary policy of Ch
    ina in the period from 1998M01
    to 2012M12. While Toda and Yamamoto (1995) type Gra
    nger causality tests provide
    no evidence for a long-run relationship between mon
    etary policy and commodity
    prices, VAR generalized impulse responses suggests
    that agricultural commodity
    prices overshoot in response to a drop in the real
    interest rate. The analysis further
    finds evidence that industrial metals prices tend t
    o be higher when China’s exchange
    rate regime is relaxed.

    1. Introduction ...................................
    ...................................................
    .......................... 1
    2. Monetary Policy and Real Estate Bubbles ........
    ...................................................
    ...... 9
    2.1. Introduction .................................
    ...................................................
    .....................9
    2.2. Literature Review ............................
    ...................................................
    ...............16
    2.2.1. Real Estate Bubbles ........................
    ...................................................
    .........16
    2.2.2. Monetary Policy and Property Bubbles .......
    ...............................................19
    2.3. Framework ....................................
    ...................................................
    .................20
    2.3.1. Property Bubble Determination ..............
    ...................................................
    .20
    2.3.2. Monetary Policy Transmission ...............
    ...................................................
    .23
    2.4. Data .........................................
    ...................................................
    .......................25
    2.5. Empirical Analysis ...........................
    ...................................................
    ..............29
    2.5.1. Long-Run Dynamics ..........................
    ...................................................
    .....29
    2.5.2. Short-Run Dynamics .........................
    ...................................................
    ......32
    2.6. Discussion ...................................
    ...................................................
    ...................37
    2.7. Conclusion ...................................
    ...................................................
    ...................41
    3. Monetary Policy and Global Commodity Prices ....
    ................................................. 4
    4
    3.1. Introduction .................................
    ...................................................
    ...................44
    3.2. Framework ....................................
    ...................................................
    .................51
    3.3. Data and Methodology .........................
    ...................................................
    ..........53
    3.3.1. Data........................................
    ...................................................
    ..................53
    3.3.2. Methodology.................................
    ...................................................
    ...........59
    3.4. Empirical Analysis ...........................
    ...................................................
    ..............62
    3.4.1. Unit Root Tests and Lag Length Selection....
    .............................................62
    3.4.2. VAR Estimation and Model Robustness ........
    ............................................64
    3.4.3. Long-Run Dynamics ..........................
    ...................................................
    .....65
    3.4.4. Short-Run Dynamics .........................
    ...................................................
    ......67
    3.5. Conclusion ...................................
    ...................................................
    ...................70
    4. Conclusion .....................................
    ...................................................
    ....................... 73
    5. References .....................................
    ...................................................
    ........................ 78

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