台灣房價持續多年居高不下，使民眾購屋的負擔日益增加，因此政府近年實施多項打房政策。其中，自2021年7月1日實施之實價登錄2.0，針對預售屋的資訊揭露與交易管理進行重大修正，無疑對房地產市場產生深遠的影響。因此，本研究藉由探討預售屋實價登錄制度對成屋價格之影響，並以不同房市結構之台中市與台南市為例，檢視實價登錄新制度推動前後，成屋與預售屋市場價格的互相影響情形。了解實價登錄實施後預售屋對成屋影響變化是否有不同，以及資訊透明化對房價的影響。研究採用內政部不動產實價登錄資料，建立2012年第四季至2024年第四季之預售價格季指數，並以內政部住宅價格指數為成屋資料，另外加入相關總體經濟變數。方法上使用自我迴歸分配落後模型ARDL與誤差修正模型ECM，分析預售屋價格對成屋價格之長短期影響，並進行共整合檢定與模型穩健性測試，增加模型的解釋度與可靠性。

研究結果顯示，台中地區預售屋價格對成屋價格具有顯著正向影響，政策實施後的交乘項亦為顯著正向，顯示預售市場具備穩定的定錨效果，且政策上路後預售屋價格影響力加強。而台中房價同時受消費者物價指數、經濟成長率、股價指數與利率等總體變數顯著影響，反映出市場對景氣與資本市場變動反應敏感，屬資金導向與投資性明顯之市場，其價格修正速度亦高於台南。相較之下，台南地區對預售屋價格長期反應較弱，僅短期顯著，顯示政策應持續加強監管，其總體經濟變數中則以物價指數與建築成本為長期顯著因子，價格更依賴生活成本與供給條件。政策虛擬變數在台中及台南均為長期顯著負向，顯示政策實施後具壓抑價格之效果。此結果呈現兩市的不動產市場差異及政府對房市管制之效果，與兩市分別為投資及自住導向市場相符。

整體而言，預售屋實價登錄政策對兩市呈現不同結果，顯示預售屋市場資訊透明化，將對不同地區價格形成產生異質性影響。本研究亦補足中南部實證文獻缺口，並指出不同地區應採取差異化政策措施，未來政策推動應考量地方市場結構差異，並強化制度監督與價格透明度，以穩定房市發展。

In Taiwan, housing prices have continued the rising trend, increasing the financial burden on buyers. In response, the government implemented several housing market regulations, including the Actual Price Registration 2.0 policy in July 2021, which enhanced transaction transparency for pre-sale houses. Therefore, this study examines the impact of the policy on existing house prices, using Taichung and Tainan as a case study due to their distin-ct market structures.

Using quarterly data from Q4 2012 to Q4 2024, this study constructs price indices for pre-sale and existing houses based on data from the Department of Land Administration, supplemented with macroeconomic indicators such as mortgage rates, stock indices, GDP growth, and construction cost indices. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) are employed to analyze both short- and long-term relationships between pre-sale and existing house prices. Cointegration tests and model diagnostics are applied to ensure robustness.

The results indicate that in Taichung, pre-sale housing prices have a significant positive effect on existing house prices, and this effect is further strengthened after the Actual Price Registration 2.0 policy. Taichung's housing prices are also significantly influenced by CPI, GDP growth, stock index, and interest rates, reflecting an investment-driven market with fast price adjustment. In contrast, Tainan shows weaker and delayed responses to pre-sale prices. The policy dummy is significantly negative in the long term, suggesting a suppressive effect on prices. CPI and construction costs are the main long-term drivers in Tainan, indicating a market more sensitive to living costs and policy signals. These results confirm structural differences between the two cities, aligned with their investment- and self-use-oriented market characteristics.

These findings suggest that the effects of price transparency policies are heterogeneous across regions. Policymakers should consider local market differences and strengthen institutional transparency to promote housing market stability.

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