| 研究生: |
李東泰 Lee, Tung-Tai |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
個人資產累積指南策略之研究 A Study on Personal Asset Accumulation Strategy |
| 指導教授: |
羅秉政
Kendro Vincent |
| 口試委員: |
羅秉政
Kendro Vincent 陳韋達 Chen, Wei-Da 陳姿穎 Chen, Tzu-Ying |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
國際金融學院 - 國際金融碩士學位學程 Master’s Program in Global Banking and Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 53 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 個人資產累積 、景氣循環 、定期不定額 、投資體驗 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Personal Asset Accumulation, Business Cycle, Variable DCA, Investment Experience |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:30 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
隨著個人理財意識抬頭,定期定額(Dollar Cost Averaging, DCA)因其紀律性與分散時點風險特性,成為個人理財投資之熱門策略。然而,其缺乏對市場位階之判斷,導致資金運用效率受限。本研究旨在建構一套適用於個人投資者之「指南策略」,探討如何運用公開之總體經濟數據動態調整投入節奏,以在不試圖預測市場之前提下,同時優化資產累積績效與投資體驗。
本研究首先以國發會「景氣對策信號」進行初步驗證,確認依據景氣位階
調整投入乘數之可行性;進一步為改善官方燈號「訊號離散」之限制,選取具領先特性之「M1B」與「股價指數」,透過滾動百分位(Rolling Percentile)與線性插值法,建構具「連續性」訊號之「景氣指標定期不定額(EI-DCA)」策略,並引入動能修正與高檔停扣機制。經以台灣市場具代表性之ETF進行十年期滾動回測,實證顯示,EI-DCA在期末財富總值與年化報酬率(IRR)均顯著優於定期定額,且「停扣機制」能有效提升資金運用效率;在投資體驗上,亦能有效縮短帳面虧損時間以及虧損比例。此外,穩健性檢定發現策略效益與標的之「波動度」呈現正相關,顯示本策略特別適合應用於高波動之成長型資產。
本研究結論指出,透過景氣指標定期不定額策略執行「逢低加碼、高檔停
扣」之動態配置,不僅有效提升了定期定額之資金效率,更具體量化了其創造之顯著績效差距,為長期投資人提供一套兼具獲利潛力與實務執行性之具體操作指南。
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is widely adopted but suffers from capital inefficiency due to a lack of market valuation assessment. This study aims to construct a practical "guide strategy" by using macroeconomic data to dynamically adjust investment multipliers, there by optimizing asset ccumulation performance and investment experience.
The study constructs a continuous "Economic Indicator DCA (EI-DCA)" strategy using M1B and the Stock Price Index via rolling percentiles and linear interpolation. Ten-year rolling backtests on representative Taiwan ETFs demonstrate that EI-DCA significantly outperforms traditional DCA in both terminal wealth and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The "suspension mechanism" effectively enhances capital efficiency, while the strategy also shortens the period of unrealized losses (underwater days). Furthermore, robustness tests indicate a positive correlation between strategy benefits and asset volatility.
In conclusion, this study quantifies the significant performance gap created by the EI-DCA strategy. It confirms that the dynamic allocation of "increasing multipliers at lows and suspending at highs" can structurally upgrade the capital efficiency of traditional DCA, providing a concrete and empirically backed operational guide for long-term investors.
第一章 緒論 p.1
第一節 研究背景與動機 p.1
第二節 研究目的 p.3
第二章 文獻回顧 p.4
第一節 資產配置與市場環境 p.4
第二節 投資策略與景氣循環指標 p.5
第三節 策略績效衡量指標 p.8
第三章 研究方法 p.12
第一節 研究期間與資料來源 p.12
第二節 景氣循環指標選取與訊號定義 p.14
第三節 交易策略模型建構 p.15
第四節 績效與風險評估指標 p.20
第四章 實證結果與分析 p.26
第一節 景氣燈號策略績效實證 p.26
第二節 基準情境分析 p.28
第三節 穩健性檢定 p.34
第四節 實證結果總結 p.38
第五章 結論與建議 p.40
第一節 研究結論 p.40
第二節 實務投資建議 p.41
第三節 研究限制與後續建議 p.42
參考文獻 p.44
附錄 p.46
Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J., & Odean, T. (2009). Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose. The Review of Financial Studies, 609–632.
Bodie, Z., Kane, A., & Marcus, A. J. (2014). Investments. McGraw-Hill Education.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S., & Zabarankin, M. (2005). Drawdown measure in portfolio optimization. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(01), 13-58.
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of finance, 40(3), 793-805.
Fama, F.E. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. The American economic review, 71(4), 545-565.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Friedman, M. (1961). The lag in effect of monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy, 69(5), 447-466.
Ilmanen, A. (2003). Stock-bond correlations. The Journal of Fixed Income, 13(2), 55.
Israelov, R., & Lo, S. (2023). Time In vs. Timing the Market: The Advantages of Lump-Sum Investing Over Dollar-Cost Averaging. THE JOURNAL.
Jegadeesh, N. (1990). Evidence of predictable behavior of security returns. The Journal of finance, 45(3), 881-898.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision making under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
Latane, A.H. (1959). Criteria for choice among risky ventures. Journal of Political Economy, 67(2), 144-155.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. . (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk Magazine, 17(10), 99-102.
Markowitz, M.H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7 (1). 1, 71-91.
Mosk, B., Pangallo, L.,& Zema, S. M. (2022). Cross-asset correlations in a more inflationary environment and challenges for diversification strategies. Financial Stability Review, November 2022. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2022/html/ecb.fsrbox202211_02~7abb48e333.en.html
Sharpe, F.W. (1966). Mutual fund performance. The Journal of Business, 39(1), 119-138.
Sortino, F. A., & Price, L. N. (1994). Performance measurement in a downside risk framework. The Journal of Investing, 3(3), 59-64.
Statman, M. (1995). A behavioral framework for dollar-cost averaging. Journal of Portfolio Management, 22(1), 70-78.
全文公開日期 2031/01/20