本研究將中國物質能力的持續增長視為結構性背景，探討在美日同盟此一非對稱同盟中，國家主觀的威脅認知如何作為核心政策驅動因素，影響美日同盟強度的變遷。本研究擺脫過往偏重物質能力對比的線性分析，探究成員國如何詮釋對手的戰略意圖與具體行為，進而催化同盟內部的調整機制。
本研究採質性個案研究，採用過程追蹤與文獻分析法，檢視2005年至2024年間美日同盟強度的演進。在分析架構上，本文建立以美日兩國對中威脅認知為自變數的理論模型，並將日本同盟義務承擔與美國延伸性嚇阻姿態視為操作化要素，進而以範疇、深度與凝聚力三者作為綜合測量依變數同盟強度變化的指標。在實證分析上，本文將二十年的歷史演進依序劃分為2005-2008年、2009-2012年、2013-2020年以及2021-2024年四個階段，檢視美日兩國如何以逐步推動防衛指針修訂、法律體制解禁與嚇阻機制升格等方式因應地緣政治的觸發事件以及區域安全環境的變化，最終促成同盟強度的實質變化。
研究結果驗證了理論假設，確認對中威脅認知的趨同、日本積極義務的承擔以及美國延伸嚇阻姿態的強化，與美日同盟強度的增強存在顯著的正向連動關係。本研究補充了Stephen Walt提出的威脅平衡論，突顯具體觸發事件與進攻意圖歸因對同盟調整的作用；揭示了不對稱同盟中弱勢盟友管理被拋棄恐懼，與強勢盟友強化嚇阻以確保扈從的的雙向保證機制；證明在不修改基礎條約文本的前提下，同盟仍可透過次級的戰略指引與雙邊常設機制的革新，實現同盟強度的重構。

Viewing the continuous growth of China's material capabilities as the structural background, this study explores how a state's subjective threat perception serves as a core policy driver influencing the transformation of the U.S.-Japan alliance strength within an asymmetric alliance. Moving beyond past linear analyses that focused exclusively on comparisons of material capabilities, this paper delves into how alliance members interpret the strategic intentions and concrete behaviors of their adversary, thereby catalyzing internal alliance adjustment mechanisms.
Positioned as a qualitative case study, this research employs process tracing and documentary analysis to examine the evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance strength from 2005 to 2024. In terms of the analytical framework, this paper establishes a theoretical model with the two nations' threat perception of China as the independent variable. It treats Japan's assumption of alliance obligations and the U.S. extended deterrence posture as operationalized elements. Consequently, scope, depth, and cohesion are utilized as comprehensive indicators to measure the dependent variable, changes in alliance strength. Regarding the empirical analysis, this study chronologically divides the twenty-year historical development into four distinct phases: 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2020, and 2021-2024. Within this framework, the paper examines how the U.S. and Japan responded to geopolitical trigger events and shifts in the regional security environment by progressively driving the revision of defense guidelines, the lifting of legal restrictions, and the elevation of deterrence mechanisms, which ultimately facilitated a substantive shift in the alliance strength.
The research findings validate the theoretical hypotheses, confirming that the convergence of threat perceptions toward China, Japan's active assumption of obligations, and the strengthening of the U.S. extended deterrence posture share a significant positive correlation with the enhancement of the U.S.-Japan alliance strength. The academic contributions of this study are threefold. First, it supplements the balance of threat theory proposed by Stephen Walt, highlighting the decisive role of concrete trigger events and offensive intention attribution in alliance adjustments. Second, it reveals a two-way assurance mechanism in asymmetric alliances, wherein the weaker ally proactively manages the fear of abandonment while the stronger ally strengthens deterrence to ensure the ally's bandwagoning. Finally, it proves that even without modifying foundational treaty texts, an alliance can achieve a restructuring of its strength through secondary strategic guidelines and innovations in bilateral standing mechanisms.

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※期刊文獻與專書
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蔡東杰、盧信吉，2020，〈日本對美國同盟戰略之調整：威脅平衡視角之探討〉，《戰略與評估》，10（2）：62-87。https://indsr.org.tw/uploads/indsr/files/202203/a0de6a08-af68-4bf5-84b1-11114412ac11.pdf
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