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研究生: 嚴筑平
Yen, Chu-Ping
論文名稱: 普京時期的俄羅斯外交戰略及其在俄烏戰爭中的實踐與局限
Russian Foreign Strategy under Vladimir Putin: Its Implementation and Limitations in the Russo-Ukrainian War
指導教授: 連弘宜
Lien, Hong-Yi
口試委員: 崔琳
Tsui, Lin
魏百谷
Wei, Pai-Ku
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
Master's Program in Strategic and International Affairs
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 204
中文關鍵詞: 普京俄羅斯外交戰略俄烏戰爭北約東擴攻勢現實主義地緣政治華爾滋三層次分析齊甘科夫停戰困境
外文關鍵詞: Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Strategy, Russia–Ukraine War, NATO Enlargement, Offensive Realism, Geopolitics, Waltz's Three Levels of Analysis, Andrei P. Tsygankov, Ceasefire Dilemma
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  • 本研究以普京時期俄羅斯外交戰略為核心,探討其形成背景、核心內涵及其在俄烏戰爭中的實踐成效與局限。研究以攻勢現實主義與地緣政治理論為基礎,輔以華爾滋三層次分析架構,分析俄羅斯外交戰略之形成,並以俄烏戰爭為案例,檢視其外交戰略之實踐及發展。
    研究發現,普京時期俄羅斯外交戰略並非固定不變,而是隨國內政治、安全需求及國際體系變遷呈現階段性演變。2000年代初期以改善對西方關係及恢復國家實力為主,展現「務實合作」的外交取向;2008年喬治亞戰爭後,逐步轉向以恢復大國地位、維護勢力範圍及推動多極國際秩序為核心的「有限度制衡」;2014年克里米亞事件及2022年俄烏戰爭爆發後,則演變為以反制西方、維護勢力範圍及挑戰既有國際秩序的「有限修正主義」外交戰略。
    俄烏戰爭並未改變俄羅斯維護國家安全、戰略自主及大國地位等外交戰略目標,而是促使其透過軍事、能源、經貿、外交及深化與非西方國家合作等方式,回應西方制裁並維持其外交操作空間。俄羅斯外交戰略除受到戰略目標、安全需求、政治體制、民族主義及經濟結構等內在因素限制;亦受美國、歐洲及中國、印度、土耳其等外部行為者制約,持續影響其外交運作空間與政策效果。
    最後,本文依據齊甘科夫(Andrei P. Tsygankov)提出之四項外交戰略評估標準,檢視俄羅斯外交戰略於俄烏戰爭中的實踐成效。研究認為,俄羅斯雖在維持戰略自主、鞏固國家認同及突破部分外交孤立等方面取得一定成果,但亦付出經濟制裁、國際孤立、長期戰爭消耗及安全風險升高等代價。整體而言,俄羅斯外交戰略雖展現一定韌性,卻亦面臨外部制約、停戰困境及高昂戰略成本。


    This study examines the foreign strategy of Russia during the Putin era, focusing on its formation, core principles, and its implementation, achievements, and limitations in the Russia–Ukraine War. The study employs Offensive Realism, Geopolitics, and Kenneth N. Waltz's Three Levels of Analysis as its theoretical framework to explore the formation of Russia's foreign strategy, using the Russia–Ukraine War as the principal case for examining its implementation and development.
    The findings indicate that Russia's foreign strategy under Vladimir Putin has not remained static but has evolved in response to changes in domestic politics, security concerns, and the international system. During the early 2000s, Russia adopted a pragmatic cooperation approach aimed at improving relations with the West and restoring national strength. Following the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, its strategy gradually shifted toward limited balancing, emphasizing the restoration of great-power status, the preservation of its sphere of influence, and the promotion of a multipolar international order. After the 2014 Crimea crisis and the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022, Russia's foreign strategy further evolved into a form of limited revisionism, characterized by countering the West, safeguarding its sphere of influence, and challenging the existing international order.
    The Russia–Ukraine War did not alter Russia's fundamental strategic objectives of safeguarding national security, maintaining strategic autonomy, and preserving its status as a great power. Instead, Russia increasingly relied on military operations, energy diplomacy, economic and trade measures, diplomatic engagement, and cooperation with non-Western countries to respond to Western sanctions and preserve its diplomatic maneuvering space. The study further finds that Russia's foreign strategy has been constrained not only by internal factors, including strategic objectives, security demands, the political system, nationalism, and economic structure, but also by external actors, particularly the United States, Europe, China, India, and Türkiye, all of which have significantly affected Russia's diplomatic flexibility and policy effectiveness.
    Finally, this study evaluates Russia's foreign strategy in the Russia–Ukraine War based on Andrei P. Tsygankov's four criteria for assessing foreign strategy: security, autonomy, identity, and welfare. The findings suggest that Russia has achieved a certain degree of strategic autonomy, strengthened national identity, and partially mitigated diplomatic isolation. However, these achievements have come at the cost of economic sanctions, international isolation, prolonged military attrition, and heightened security risks. Overall, while Russia's foreign strategy has demonstrated considerable resilience, it continues to face increasing external constraints, difficulties in achieving a ceasefire, and mounting strategic costs.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機與目的 1
    第二節 文獻回顧 5
    第三節 研究途徑與方法 36
    第四節 研究範圍與限制 41
    第五節 研究架構與章節安排 43
    第二章 普京時期的俄羅斯外交戰略 47
    第一節 普京的外交戰略構想(個人層次) 47
    第二節 俄羅斯內部需求與戰略利益(國家層次) 63
    第三節 國際秩序與俄羅斯安全觀衝突(國際層次) 72
    第四節 小結 79
    第三章 俄烏戰爭中的外交戰略實踐與內在局限 83
    第一節 戰前外交與戰爭啟動的戰略邏輯 83
    第二節 戰爭爆發後的外交戰略實踐 92
    第三節 俄羅斯外交戰略之內在局限 107
    第四節 小結 121
    第四章 外交戰略的外部制約與停戰困境 123
    第一節 美國因素對俄羅斯外交戰略的外部制約與停戰判斷之影響 123
    第二節 歐洲制裁與援烏政策對俄羅斯外交戰略之制約 135
    第三節 非西方大國與區域樞紐國家對俄羅斯外交戰略之支撐與限制 148
    第四節 小結 161
    第五章 結論 165
    第一節 研究成果 165
    第二節 未來研究建議 175
    參考文獻 179
    一、中文部分 179
    二、英文部分 183
    三、俄文部分 204

    一、 中文部分:
    (一)專書
    王家豪,《普京的俄羅斯帝國夢》(臺北市:新銳文創/秀威資訊科技,2022年)。
    史蒂文.李.梅耶(Steven Lee Myers)著,陳珮榆譯,《普丁正傳:新沙皇的崛起與統治》(新北市:好優文化出版有限公司,2022年)。
    伊蓮娜.科斯秋琴科(Elena Kostyuchenko)著,胡宗香譯,《我深愛的國家:俄國女孩的真實告白》(新北市:衛城出版,2024年)。
    波波羅(Bobo Lo)著,袁靖、傅瑩譯,《孤獨的帝國:俄羅斯與新世界無序》(北京:中信出版社,2019年)。
    胡逢瑛,《俄羅斯再次崛起?》(臺北市:秀威資訊科技,2013年)。
    胡逢瑛、吳非,《俄羅斯公共外交與地緣政治:烏克蘭危機之下普京時代的再造》(臺北市:獨立作家,2016年)。
    馬克.加萊奧蒂(Mark Galeotti)著,方偉達譯,《普丁戰爭:從車臣到烏克蘭》(臺北市:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2023年)。
    許湘濤,《地緣政治學》(臺北市:元華文創有限公司,2022年)。
    連弘宜,《普京時期的俄羅斯對外政策》(臺北市:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2017年)。
    提摩西.史奈德(Timothy Snyder)著,林俊宏譯,《到不自由之路:普京的集權邏輯與全球民主的危機》(新北市:聯經出版,2023年)。
    廖舜右,《國際關係總論》(第四版)(新北市:揚智文化,2016年)。
    劉必榮,《看世界的方法:國際觀的第一本書》(臺北市:先覺出版股份有限公司,2014年)。
    瑪莎.葛森(Masha Gessen)著,林添貴譯,《普京:沙皇再臨》(臺北市:時報文化,2012年)。
    謝東,《硬漢鐵腕-普京傳:還你一個奇蹟般的俄羅斯》(臺北市:廣達文化事業有限公司,2014年)。
    謝爾希.浦洛基(Serhii Plokhy)著,劉卉立譯,《俄烏戰爭:世界新秩序的建立》(臺北市:貓頭鷹出版,2024年)。
    鄭欽模,《重返強權:俄羅斯國家安全政策變革之研究(1989–2019)》(臺北市:翰蘆圖書,2016年)。
    (二)專書論文
    吳玉山,〈如何站位?俄烏戰爭與戰略抉擇〉,收錄於《思想(REFLEXION 46):後全球化與俄烏戰爭》(新北市:聯經出版,2023年)。
    葉國俊,〈俄烏戰爭下的歐洲:整合與分歧〉,收錄於《思想(REFLEXION 46):後全球化與俄烏戰爭》(新北市:聯經出版,2023年)。
    許菁芸,〈俄羅斯半總統制下普欽歸位與民主發展之探討〉,收錄於李明主編,《普欽執政下的俄羅斯》(臺北市:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2015年)。
    連弘宜、黃建豪,〈普欽時期俄羅斯軍事戰略的轉變〉,收錄於李明主編,《普欽執政下的俄羅斯》(臺北市:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2015年)。
    鄭欽模,〈從華約、解約到另立新約:論普欽的新安全政策〉,收錄於李明主編,《普欽執政下的俄羅斯》(臺北市:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2015年)。
    (三)期刊論文
    林穎佑,〈俄烏戰爭的軍事反思〉,《展望與探索》第21卷第2期(2023年2月),頁95-102。
    洪德欽,〈歐盟在俄烏衝突中針對俄羅斯採取之制裁措施〉,《歐亞研究》第19期(2022年4月),頁65–66。
    崔琳,〈俄羅斯聯邦公民民族主義與普丁的對外政策〉,《人文社會科學研究》第3卷第1期(2009年3月),頁79–102。
    連弘宜,〈領導層更迭:俄羅斯外交走向初探〉,《台俄經貿》第11期(2012年8月),頁22–29。
    楊瑞頤,〈俄羅斯的「全球南方」外交政策剖析〉,《東北亞學刊》2024年第3期,頁96–110。
    (四)網路資料
    徐子軒,〈烏俄戰爭3年:烏克蘭終止俄國天然氣過境,但歐盟還沒準備好〉,《轉角國際》,2025年1月7日,https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/8473297(檢索日期:2025年4月4日)。
    路西,〈普京:克里米亞是俄國不可分割的部分〉,《BBC NEWS 中文》,2014年3月18日,https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/03/140318_russia_crimea_putin(檢索日期:2025年4月21日)。
    陳韻安,〈【國際大人物】EP4|普亭曾把自己跟沙皇相比,入侵烏克蘭是為了「恢復帝國榮光」?〉,《關鍵評論網》,2023年8月18日,https://www.thenewslens.com/article/189740(檢索日期:2025年4月5日)。
    魏百谷,〈2024年普丁訪中觀察〉,《財團法人海峽交流基金會》,2024年8月22日,https://www.sef.org.tw/article-1-204-15380(檢索日期:2025年6月10日)。
    〈普京電視講話全文(1.3萬字)〉,《洞傳媒》,2022年2月22日,https://taiwandomnews.com/%E5%9C%8B%E9%9A%9B/22085/(檢索日期:2026年1月18日)。
    〈中國公布12點烏克蘭和平方案 美、歐對北京立場存疑〉,《上報》,2023年2月24日,https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=3&SerialNo=166716(檢索日期:2026年3月8日)。
    〈中俄聯合聲明不再提友好無止境 學者:俄烏戰爭影響〉,《中央通訊社》,2024年5月16日,https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202405160405.aspx(檢索日期:2026年3月9日)。
    余文琦,〈觀點/俄烏戰爭可能讓印度再次以「不結盟政策」影響世界局勢〉,《TVBS新聞網》,2022年4月18日,https://news.tvbs.com.tw/world/1769129(檢索日期:2026年3月9日)。
    Andrew E. Kramer and Stanley Reed,〈西方石油巨頭無視制裁繼續與俄合作〉,《紐約時報中文網》,2014年6月11日,https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20140611/c11russiaenergy/zh-hant/(檢索日期:2025年11月3日)。
    二、 英文部分:
    (一) Official Documents
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    Council of the European Union. “Ukraine: Council Extends the Mandate of the EU Military Assistance Mission for Two Years.” November 8, 2024. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/11/08/ukraine-council-extends-the-mandate-of-the-eu-military-assistance-mission-for-two-years/pdf/ (accessed March 28, 2026).
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    European Commission. “Ukraine: EU Agrees to Exclude Key Russian Banks from SWIFT.” March 2, 2022. https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/ukraine-eu-agrees-exclude-key-russian-banks-swift-2022-03-02_en (accessed March 10, 2026).
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    Council of the European Union. “European Council, 19 March 2026.” March 19, 2026. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2026/03/19/ (accessed March 29, 2026).
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    (二) Books
    Borozna, Angela, and Lada V. Kochtcheeva. War by Other Means: Western Sanctions on Russia and Moscow's Response. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.
    Connolly, Richard. Russia's Response to Sanctions: How Western Economic Statecraft Is Reshaping Political Economy in Russia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
    Jakupec, Viktor. The EU's Strategic Dilemma in the Ukraine War: Sanctions, Military Aid, and the Struggle for Coherence in Foreign Policy. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025.
    Lo, Bobo. Vladimir Putin and the Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing, 2003.
    Rieker, Pernille, and Mathilde T. E. Giske. European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order: European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.
    Sakwa, Richard. Putin Redux: Power and Contradiction in Contemporary Russia. (London: Routledge, 2014)https://www.taylorfrancis.com/reader/read-online/f0c83993-b988-4cd0-8d4a-232716c78cf4/book/epub?context=ubx (accessed July 4, 2026).
    Sakwa, Richard. Russia against the Rest: The Post-Cold War Crisis of World Order. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017.
    Stoner, Kathryn E. Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021.
    Talseth, Lars-Christian U. The Politics of Power: EU–Russia Energy Relations in the 21st Century. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2017. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-33126-3
    Tsygankov, Andrei P. Russia's Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity. New York: Bloomsbury Academic, 2025. https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/monograph?docid=b-9798216413196 (accessed January 4, 2026).
    Tungul, Lucie, ed. Europeanisation and Eurasianism in Turkey and Ukraine: Balancing between Integration and Autonomy. London: Routledge, 2025.
    (三) Book Chapters
    Cadier, David. “Policies towards the Post-Soviet Space: The Eurasian Economic Union as an Attempt to Develop Russia’s Structural Power?” In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, edited by David Cadier and Margot Light. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. pp. 156–174.
    Cadier, David, and Margot Light. “Conclusion: Foreign Policy as the Continuation of Domestic Politics by Other Means.” In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, edited by David Cadier and Margot Light. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. pp. 204–216.
    Dabrowski, M., and S. Avdasheva, “Sanctions and Forces Driving to Autarky,” in M. Dabrowski, ed., The Contemporary Russian Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis (Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2023), pp. 271–286.
    Drezner, Daniel W., “Lose-Lose: The Economic Sanctions of the Russo-Ukrainian War,” in Hal Brands, ed., War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024), pp. 274–285.
    Hill, Fiona. “How Vladimir Putin’s World View Shapes Russian Foreign Policy.” In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, edited by David Cadier and Margot Light. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. pp. 42–61.
    Russell, John. “Whose ‘Near Abroad’? Dilemmas in Russia’s Declared Sphere of Privileged Interests.” In Russia and Its Near Neighbours: Identity, Interests and Foreign Policy, edited by Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet, 109–128. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
    Sakwa, Richard. “Dualism at Home and Abroad: Russian Foreign Policy Neo-revisionism and Bicontinentalism.” In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, edited by David Cadier and Margot Light. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. pp. 65–79.
    Laenen, Ria. “Russia’s ‘Vital and Exclusive’ National Interests in the Near Abroad.” In Russia and Its Near Neighbours: Identity, Interests and Foreign Policy, edited by Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet, 17–38. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
    Lin, Bonny, and Brian Hart, “Accelerating Profound Changes Unseen in a Century: Chinese Assessments of and Responses to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” in Hal Brands, ed., War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024), pp. 239–257.
    (四) Journal Articles
    Chang-Liao, Nien-Chung, “The Limits of Strategic Partnerships: Implications for China’s Role in the Russia-Ukraine War,” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 44, No. 2 (2023), pp. 226–247.
    Cheterian, Vicken. “Friend and Foe: Russia–Turkey Relations before and after the War in Ukraine.” Small Wars & Insurgencies 34, no. 7 (2023): 1268–1287.
    Düben, Björn Alexander, and Heidi Wang-Kaeding, “Don’t Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste: China’s Response to the Russia–Ukraine War,” International Politics, Vol. 61, No. 5 (2024), pp. 923–947.
    Fitzsimmons, Michael, “Russian Strategy and the End of the INF Treaty,” Survival, Vol. 60, No. 6 (2018), pp. 119–136.
    Gabuev, Alexander, “The Russia That Putin Made: Moscow, the West, and Coexistence Without Illusion,” Foreign Affairs, April 17, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russia-putin-made-alexander-gabuev (accessed May 26, 2025).
    Hall, Ian. “India 2024: Challenges and Contention in Foreign Policy.” Asia Maior 35 (2024): 315–334.
    Hill, Fiona, and Angela Stent. “The World Putin Wants: How Distortions About the Past Feed Delusions About the Future.” Foreign Affairs. August 25, 2022. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent (accessed March 21, 2026).
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    Parmeter, Ian. “Strategic Ambiguity: Turkey, Russia and the War in Ukraine.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of European Studies 15, no. 2 (2023): 18–31.
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    Wódka, Jakub. “Turkey’s Middlepowermanship, Foreign Policy Transformation and Mediation Efforts in the Russia-Ukraine War.” Studia Europejskie – Studies in European Affairs 4 (2023): 219–239.
    (五) Research Reports
    Ash, Timothy et al., “How to End Russia’s War on Ukraine: Safeguarding Europe’s Future, and the Dangers of a False Peace,” Chatham House, June 27, 2023, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine/fallacy-3-ukraine-should-adopt-neutrality (accessed March 15, 2026).
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    三、 俄文部分:
    Зарубин, Павел. «Владимир Путин приступил к исполнению обязанностей президента». 4 января 2026 г. https://smotrim.ru/article/1889524 (accessed January 4, 2026).
    Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации. «Договор между Российской Федерацией и государствами — членами Организации Североатлантического договора о гарантиях безопасности». 17 декабря 2021 г. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790803/ (accessed January 18, 2026).
    Министерство финансов Российской Федерации. Краткая ежеквартальная информация об исполнении федерального бюджета (млрд руб., накоплено с начала года). https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/document?id_4=80039-kratkaya_ezhekvartalnaya_informatsiya_ob_ispolnenii_federalnogo_byudzheta_mlrd_rub._nakopleno_s_nachala_goda(accessed July 11, 2026).
    Путин, Владимир. «Россия на рубеже тысячелетий». Независимая газета. 30 декабря 1999 г. https://www.ng.ru/politics/1999-12-30/4_millenium.html (accessed June 26, 2026).
    Путин, Владимир. «Подписание договоров о принятии в Российскую Федерацию Донецкой Народной Республики, Луганской Народной Республики, Запорожской области и Херсонской области». Президент России. 30 сентября 2022 г. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465 (accessed July 11, 2026).

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