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| 研究生： |
詹曜瑛 Chan, Yao-Ying |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
外匯市場流動性及共性分析 Foreign exchange liquidity and commonality analysis |
| 指導教授： |
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu |
| 口試委員: |
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu 廖四郎 Liao, Ssu-Lang 程智男 Cheng, Chih-Nan |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年： | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度： | 108 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 31 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 外匯流動性 、流動性指標 、共性 、共性指標 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Foreign exchange liquidity, Liquidity measure, Commonality, Commonality indicator |
| DOI URL： | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000577 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：106 下載：5 |
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在過去學者的研究中，關於流動性的主題大多還是集中於股票及債券市場上，因此本論文主要針對外匯市場流動性做探討，研究外匯流動性與需求面、供給面、市場面因素之關係，以及外匯流動性共性與國家特性之關係。
首先利用36個國家在1997年1月到2018年12月期間內外匯市場的匯率報價，計算出外匯流動性指標，根據縱橫資料迴歸的結果顯示，在需求面因素中，外匯流動性隨著美國總資本流動及VIX指數上升而下降；在供給面因素中，外匯流動性隨著TED利差、美國商業票據利差及美國銀行存款上升而下降；在市場面因素中，波動性變數對外匯流動性的解釋能力最好，外匯流動性隨著股票波動率及債券波動率上升而下降。
接著進一步利用外匯流動性指標，建構出外匯流動性共性指標，與代表國家特性的變數進行簡單迴歸及複迴歸，根據迴歸結果顯示，外匯存底越低、外匯報酬波動率越高、貨幣市場利率越高以及央行透明度越高的國家，外匯流動性共性越高，此外，已開發國家共性又比新興國家高。
In the past studies of scholars, most of the topics on liquidity are still concentrated on the stock and bond markets, so this paper mainly discusses the liquidity of the foreign exchange market, studying the relationship between foreign exchange liquidity and the demand-side, supply-side, market-side factors, and the relationship between the commonality of foreign exchange liquidity and country characteristics.
First, we use the exchange rate quotes of the foreign exchange market in the period from January 1997 to December 2018 in 36 countries to calculate the foreign exchange liquidity measure. According to the results of panel regressions : among demand-side factors, foreign exchange liquidity declines when U.S. capital flows and the VIX index rise; among supply-side factors, foreign exchange liquidity declines when TED spread, U.S. commercial paper spread, and U.S. bank deposits rise; among market-side factors, volatility variables have the best ability to explain foreign exchange liquidity, and foreign exchange liquidity declines when stock volatility and bond volatility increase.
Then, we further use the foreign exchange liquidity measure to construct an indicator of commonality in foreign exchange liquidity, and perform simple regression and multiple regression with variables representing the characteristics of the country. According to the results of regressions, countries with lower foreign reserve, higher volatility of foreign exchange rate returns, higher local money market interest rate and higher central bank transparency are positively related with commonality. In addition, developed countries have higher commonality than emerging countries.
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景及動機 1
第二節、研究目的 3
第三節、論文架構及章節介紹 3
第二章、文獻回顧 4
第一節、外匯流動性指標文獻探討 4
第二節、影響外匯流動性因素文獻探討 5
第三節、外匯流動性共性文獻探討 6
第三章、資料樣本選擇與研究方法 7
第一節、樣本選擇 7
第二節、外匯流動性 7
第三節、外匯流動性之共性 (Commonality) 17
第四章、實證結果分析 21
第一節、外匯流動性與影響因素之關係探討 21
第二節、外匯流動性共性指標之建構結果 23
第三節、外匯流動性共性與國家特性之關係探討 25
第五章、結論與建議 28
第一節、結論 28
第二節、未來建議 29
參考文獻 30
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