近年來，軌道運輸建設已成為都市發展與交通政策的重要工具，其對周邊不動產價格之影響亦受到學術界與實務界關注。然而，既有研究多聚焦於通車營運後之房價變化，較少探討不同政策階段所產生之價格效果。因此，本研究以新北捷運系統之安坑輕軌為研究案例，探討路線核定公告、主體工程開工及正式通車營運等不同政策階段對沿線住宅價格之影響。
本研究依據安坑輕軌計畫推動歷程，分別依路線核定公告、主體工程開工及正式通車營運三個關鍵階段，並透過地理資訊系統整合住宅結構屬性與周邊環境特性，並結合熵平衡法、特徵價格模型與差異中之差異法，在控制住宅結構屬性、周邊環境特性及時間差異後，以降低樣本選擇性偏誤，進行政策效果之實證分析。
實證結果顯示，安坑輕軌於路線核定公告及主體工程開工階段，對沿線住宅價格均產生顯著正向影響，其中以工程開工階段之效果最為明顯；相較之下，於正式通車營運後，其對住宅價格之影響則未達顯著，顯示住宅市場對軌道運輸建設具有提前反應特性，建設計畫所帶來之交通改善與區域發展預期，已於政策公告及工程施工階段提前反映於住宅價格之中。
綜上，軌道運輸建設之價格效果，不僅來自通車後所產生之實際使用效益，更體現市場對政策資訊與未來發展之預期心理，本文之研究結果希冀能提供政府於軌道運輸建設規劃與大眾運輸導向發展政策之參考，並作為不動產市場參與者進行投資決策與居住區位選擇之依據。

In recent years, rail transit infrastructure has become a vital tool in urban policy, drawing substantial attention regarding its impact on surrounding property values. However, existing literature largely focuses on post-operational price dynamics, leaving the impacts across distinct policy stages less explored. Taking the Ankeng Light Rail Transit (LRT) in New Taipei City as a case study, this research examines the housing price effects across three critical policy milestones: route approval announcement, main construction commencement, and official operation.
Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to integrate structural and neighborhood attributes, this study employs Entropy Balancing, the Hedonic Price Model, and the Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach to control for structural, spatial, and temporal variations, thereby mitigating sample selection bias.
The empirical findings reveal that the Ankeng LRT generated significant positive price effects during both the route approval and construction stages, with the construction phase exhibiting the strongest capitalization effect. Conversely, the price impact post-operation was statistically insignificant. These results demonstrate a clear market anticipation effect, where prospective accessibility improvements and regional growth are priced into residential properties long before official operations begin.
In conclusion, the capitalization of rail transit stems not only from post-operational utility, but also heavily from market expectations driven by policy signals. These findings provide valuable insights for government planning in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and serve as a practical reference for real estate investment and location decisions.

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