確定給付制的退休金計畫，退休金成本提存的適當與否，關係到基金長期的財務健全及未來員工權益的保障，而我國公務人員退撫基金關係到廣大公務人員的權益，也影響到政府的財政支出，所以對公務人員退撫基金更有精算的必要，以確保提撥率之適當而不至於對政府財政增加額外負擔。

本論文從人口面的角度出發，以我國公務人員退休撫卹基金為實證分析之研究對象，探討人口面的假設對於公務人員退撫基金提撥率，未來各項給付支出的影響，包括從經驗資料中取樣，探討大小不同的樣本建立之服職表，於計算提撥率的差異，並利用混成模型建立新進成員假設，以開放團體模擬基金成員結構，在某些固定假設之下，模擬未來五十年的基金資產與現金流量情況。

根據本研究結果指出，利用不同取樣所建構的服職表，計算出之提撥率差異甚大，顯示小型的退休金計畫並不適宜以自身的經驗資料作為精算評價的基礎。另外，以常態分佈的混成模型建立公務人員新進假設，在人數設限成員群體的假設下作開放團體模擬的結果，顯示公務人員年齡結構在未來有逐漸老化的趨勢，在本文所採的假設下，基金資產將先增後減而於民國121年破產。在現行的公務人員退休撫卹制度下，要避免基金破產之情況發生，唯有提高提撥率、提高基金資產報酬率、或壓低薪資成長率。

第一章 緒論

第一節 研究動機與目的

第二節 研究範圍與限制

第三節 研究架構與內容

第二章 退休金精算考慮之因素

第一節 退休基金精算系統的概念及文獻回顧

第二節 精算假設

第三節 精算成本法

第三章 基金成員結構分析的理論基礎

第一節 服職表的編製

壹、 模型建立

貳、 修勻方法

參、 程式演算過程

第二節 混成參數模型的建構

第三節 基金成員新進參數模型的建立

第四節 基金成員新進、脫退隨機過程

第四章 公務人員退撫基金精算模擬

第一節 公務人員退撫基金給付規定

第二節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價系統簡介

第三節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價之實證

壹、 取樣差異對於提撥率的影響

貳、 開放團體模擬基金成員結構和財務預估

第五章 結論與建議

第一節 結論

第二節 對後續研究的建議

附錄A：估計粗脫率之程式

附錄B：修勻程式(Whittaker法)

附錄C：估計常態混成模型參數之程式

附錄D：公務人員新進成員年齡、職等分佈模擬之程式

附錄E-1：服職表1

附錄E-2：服職表2

附錄E-3：服職表3

附錄E-4：服職表4

附錄E-5：服職表5

附錄E-6：服職表6

附錄E-7：服職表7

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The adequacy of the plan contribution for a defined benefit pension scheme is directly related to its financial soundness and the plan member’s benefits. Due to uncertainty of the plan’s turnover, the service table plays an important role in actuarial valuation and cash flow projection. In this study, Taiwan public employees retirement system is studied to monitor the solvency issue due to bias in selecting the service tables. Tai-PERS is designed to provide retirement and ancillary benefits to 271,215 government employees. Its financial soundness is especially vital to the government annual balance.

The plan contribution and projected cash flows of Tai-PERS are investigated using various sampling results. The distribution of the new entrants is assumed to follow the mixture model to describe the recruiting results. Then dynamic simulations under the open group assumption are performed to predict the future fund assets and cash flows.

The results show significant differences in employing various service tables. Hence selecting proper demographic assumptions is particular important in pension valuation. Under our approach, the workforce of Tai-PERS is aging given the current plan population. Based on the given scenario, the projected plan assets increase and then decrease to be insolvent in 2032. Some interesting results are also discussed.

中文部份
1. 中華民國考試院統計提要，考試院編印，民國八十六年七月。
2. 公務人員退休撫卹基金監理法規輯要，公務人員退休撫卹基金監理委員會編印，民國八十六年四月。
3. 余清祥，修勻－統計在保險的應用，雙葉書廊，民國八十六年九月。
4. 洪信達，公務人員退撫基金收支簡化模型之探討－以考試院為例，成功大學統計學研究所碩士論文，民國八十六年六月。
5. 康弘毅，企業退休金成本模擬分析，逢甲大學保險研究所碩士論文，民國八十四年六月。
6. 張士傑，台灣公務人員退撫系統動態精算模型之建立，公務人員退撫基金專題研討會，民國八十七年五月。
7. 張士傑，台灣壽險業第三回經驗生命表混成參數模型分析，保險專刊，第42輯，民國八十四年十二月。
8. 張士傑，退撫基金精算模式之建立，公務人員退撫基金專題研討會，民國八十六年五月。
9. 張士傑、鄭欣怡，固定給付退休基金隨機動態評價系統建構的剖析，退撫基金管理論壇學術研討會，民國八十七年五月。
10. 符寶玲，退休基金制度與管理，華泰書局，民國八十六年元月。
11. 黃幼芳，退休金成本模擬分析－開放型團體之研究，政治大學保險研究所論文，民國八十一年六月。
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