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研究生: 阮功松
Nguyen Cong Tung
論文名稱: 民之所欲常在我心?民意對越南對美與對中政策之影響
The Influence of Public Opinion on Vietnam’s Policy towards the United States and China
指導教授: 黃瓊萩
Huang, Chiung-Chiu
口試委員: 石之瑜
Shih, Chih-yu
冷則剛
Leng, Tse-Kang
左正東
Tso, Chen-Dong
吳崇涵
Wu, Chong-Han
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 東亞研究所
Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 346
中文關鍵詞: 越南美國中國民意議題顯著性國內政治競爭
外文關鍵詞: Vietnam, the United States, China, Public opinion, Issue salience, Domestic political contestation
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101762
相關次數: 點閱:130下載:0
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  • 美國和中國被定位為越南重中之重的夥伴,在政治、安全、經貿等領域皆與越南維持著密切的聯繫。在過去十年間,處理涉及美、中兩國關係逐漸成為越南對外政策的重點工作,不斷考驗越南領袖的智慧。當下越南外交決策者所面臨的挑戰在於:美、中兩強的戰略競爭所帶來的選邊站壓力日增,以及越南民間社會對外交事務日益暢所欲言。鑒於此,本研究的主要目的,即在探討越南民意在越南官方制定對美、中兩國的政策上是否以及如何產生影響。在深入回答此問題前,本研究先簡述越南民意在越南對外政策制定之角色,並歸納出越南民眾透過制度設計和非制度設計這兩種方式與途徑以表達其對外交政策議題的意見。接著,本研究藉由探討「2019年越中萬安灘對峙事件」、「美國航空母艦2018年和2020年靠港訪問越南」這兩個國土安全議題案例,以及中國「一帶一路」倡議和美國「印太戰略」這兩個區域大國政治議題案例,進而釐清越南官方與民間在這四個案例上對美、中的政策偏好及立場,並以此評估越南民意所透過的兩種制度和非制度設計的方式與途徑對官方外交決策過程所產生的影響。本研究發現,越南民意可以有條件地影響越南官方對美、中兩國的決策過程。進一步言,當越南民眾對某項涉及美、中兩國的議題之關注較大,且越南官方與民間對該等議題的政策偏好與立場出現很大的分歧之時,那麼越南民意較有機會影響官方的政策制定和產出。本研究的發現對於進一步解釋民意與包括越南在內的威權主義國家的外交決策之關係上做出重要的實證和理論貢獻,即倘某項外交事件的議題顯著性高,且能夠引起該國較激烈的國內政治競爭,那麼民意影響官方的外交決策之機會也會有所提升。


    The United States (U.S.) and China are both positioned as Vietnam’s critical partners in terms of political, security and economic dimensions. During the last ten years, dealing with the U.S. and China has become a focus of Vietnam’s foreign policy, representing a tough test for Vietnamese leaders. The challenges facing Vietnamese foreign policy makers nowadays include: mounting side-taking pressure resulted from U.S.-China strategic rivalry and Vietnamese public’s growing concerns about foreign affairs. This research is thus designed to investigate whether and how public opinion can affect Vietnam’s foreign policies towards the U.S. and China. This dissertation first briefs on the role of Vietnamese public opinion in the making of Vietnam’s foreign policy, then maps out two dominant channels that the public utilize to express their perspectives on foreign affairs, i.e. institutionally-designed and non-institutionally-designed. Afterwards, this study investigates four specific cases to clarify Vietnamese authorities’ and public’s policy preferences and stances towards the U.S. and China, and evaluates how the public have resorted to the above institutionally-designed and non-institutionally-designed channels to exert influences on the foreign policy making process. The former two cases are related to sovereign security issue, including: Vietnam-China standoff at Vanguard Bank in 2019, and the U.S. aircraft carrier port calls to Vietnam in 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, the latter two cases deal with regional power politics issue, particularly: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. This study explores that Vietnamese public opinion can conditionally affect Vietnam’s policy toward the U.S. and China. More specifically, when the public pay greater attention to a particular U.S.-related or China-related issue, plus significant discrepancies in policy preferences and stances are found between Vietnamese authorities and the public, public opinion can have greater chance to influence the authorities’ foreign policy making. The findings of this research make crucial empirical and theoretical contributions to explaining the nexus between public opinion and foreign policy making in authoritarian states. That said, if the issue salience of a particular foreign policy incident is high and can trigger intense domestic political contestation, the chances for public opinion to wield influences over the authorities’ foreign policy making will subsequently increase.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與研究問題 1
    一、研究背景 1
    二、研究問題 4
    第二節 文獻回顧 8
    一、外部結構面向 8
    二、民眾意見面向 19
    三、小結 23
    第三節 研究設計 26
    一、研究架構 26
    二、研究途徑 31
    第四節 研究方法 38
    一、文獻分析 38
    二、詮釋法 39
    三、案例研究 39
    第五節 章節安排 43
    第二章 越南對外政策之演進、制定及民意的展現方式 45
    第一節 越南自革新以來之對外政策 45
    一、越南對外政策演進及路線 45
    二、越南對外政策本質及主要框架 56
    三、越南對美、中政策之概況 60
    第二節 是誰在制定越南對外政策? 66
    一、越南共產黨的對外決策制度設計 67
    二、越南政府的對外決策制度設計 71
    三、越南國會對外政策制度設計 74
    第三節 民意在越南對外政策制定之角色 78
    一、何謂民意? 78
    二、越南民意展現的方式與途徑 83
    第四節 小結 96
    第三章 國土安全議題與越南對美、中政策 99
    第一節 越南國土安全議題之簡析 99
    一、南海爭端與越南 100
    二、越南對與其他國家在其國土上進行合作之政策 112
    第二節 越南官方對國土安全議題之相關回應與政策 126
    一、越中兩國在萬安灘之對峙事件 126
    二、美國航空母艦兩度訪問越南事件 133
    第三節 民間社會的觀點與影響力評估 141
    一、萬安灘對峙事件 141
    二、美國航空母艦之訪問事件 153
    第四節 小結 161
    第四章 區域大國政治議題與越南對美、中政策 165
    第一節 區域大國政治議題之案例簡介 165
    一、中國「一帶一路」倡議與越南角色 166
    二、美國自由與開放的「印太戰略」與越南的角色 176
    第二節 越南官方對區域大國政治議題之回應與政策 186
    一、中國「一帶一路」倡議在越南的施展及越南的回應 186
    二、美國「印太戰略」在越南的施展與越南的回應 196
    第三節 民間社會的觀點與影響力評估 205
    一、越南民眾對中國「一帶一路」倡議之態度、行動及官方的回應 205
    二、越南民眾對美國「印太戰略」之態度、行動及官方的回應 215
    第四節 小結 222
    第五章 民之所欲常在我心?民意對越南對美與對中政策之影響 225
    第一節 越南在國土安全與區域大國政治議題上對美、中的政策之比較 225
    一、議題導向的越南對美與對中政策之比較 226
    二、雙邊關係框架主導下的越南對美與對中政策之比較 228
    第二節 民眾的意見與政策偏好及其對外交決策之影響 239
    一、民調結果中的美國和中國形象及其構成原因 239
    二、越南民意的政策偏好及其對外交政策制定之影響評估 253
    第三節 民之所欲常在我心:國內競爭對越南對美、中政策之影響 262
    一、議題顯著性與決策者的政治生存邏輯 263
    二、角色理論中的國內角色競爭 265
    三、評估民意對於外交政策制定之影響:超越既有理論框架的可能性 272
    第六章 結論 281
    第一節 研究發現及主要貢獻 281
    一、各章之研究發現及結果 282
    二、研究貢獻 287
    第二節 研究限制及未來研究展望 289
    一、研究限制 289
    二、未來研究方向 290
    參考文獻 293
    中文部分 293
    英文部分 298
    越文部分 320
    附錄 346

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    新華網,2017年5月10日,「專訪:『一帶一路』國際合作高峰論壇有助於地區與世界和平、穩定、繁榮——訪越南國家主席陳大光」,http://www.xinhuanet.com//2017-05/10/c_1120951846.htm,檢索日期:2020年12月20日。
    新華網,2018a年1月23日,「『一帶一路』開闢中拉合作新境界」,http://www.xinhuanet.com/silkroad/2018-01/23/c_1122303910.htm,檢索日期:2020年10月30日。
    新華網,2018b年8月26日,「道致遠,海納百川——習近平主席提出『一帶一路』倡議5週年記」,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-08/26/c_1123330829.htm,檢索日期:2020年12月1日。
    經濟日報,2019年5月26日,「貨幣操縱國名單,越南將除名」,https://money.udn.com/money/story/5599/3834490,檢索日期:2020年12月1日。
    劉鋒, 2020年3月13日,「劉鋒:美軍艦闖西沙意欲何為?」,《新浪軍事》,https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2020-03-13/doc-iimxyqwa0041657.shtml,檢索日期:2021年3月25日。 
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    越文部分
    書籍
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    Huy Duc. 2012. Bên thắng cuộc II: Quyền bính. Boston, MA: Osinbook.
    Nguyen, Ngoc Truong (NT). 2019. Thế giới 30 Năm: Nhận diện và Xu thế. Hà Nội, HN: NXB Lao động – Xã hội.
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    Vietnam MOFA. 2015. Bộ Ngoại giao: 70 năm xây dựng và phát triển (1945–2015). Hanoi: National Political Publishing House.
    官方資料
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    Vietnam MOFA. June 21, 2012. “Việc thông qua Luật Biển Việt Nam là một hoạt động lập pháp bình thường nhằm hoàn thiện khuôn khổ pháp lý của Việt Nam.” Tap chi Cong san. http://xaydungdang.org.vn/Home/PrintStory.aspx?distribution=5201&print=true, accessed on March 1, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. March 1, 2018b. “Người phát ngôn lên tiếng về việc tàu sân bay Mỹ thăm Việt Nam.” VietnamNet. https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su/nguoi-phat-ngon-noi-ve-viec-tau-san-bay-my-tham-viet-nam-20180301154519329.htm, accessed on March 24, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. July 16, 2019a. “Việt Nam đang đấu tranh bảo vệ lợi ích hợp pháp của mình ở Biển Đông.” Thanh Nien. https://thanhnien.vn/thoi-su/viet-nam-dang-dau-tranh-bao-ve-loi-ich-hop-phap-cua-minh-o-bien-dong-1104071.html, accessed on March 27, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. July 19, 2019b, “Việt Nam yêu cầu Trung Quốc rút toàn bộ tàu khỏi vùng đặc quyền kinh tế,” VnExpress. https://vnexpress.net/the-gioi/viet-nam-yeu-cau-trung-quoc-rut-toan-bo-tau-khoi-vung-dac-quyen-kinh-te-3955182.html, accessed on March 27, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. July 25, 2019c. “Bộ Ngoại giao: 'Việt Nam kiên quyết bảo vệ chủ quyền ở Biển Đông'.” Tuoi Tre. https://tuoitre.vn/bo-ngoai-giao-viet-nam-kien-quyet-bao-ve-chu-quyen-o-bien-dong-20190725143908948.htm, accessed on March 27, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. October 3, 2019d. “Họp báo thường kỳ Bộ Ngoại giao.” An Ninh TV. http://www.antv.gov.vn/tin-tuc/chinh-tri/hop-bao-thuong-ky-bo-ngoai-giao-298740.html, accessed on March 21, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. March 5, 2020a. “Bộ Ngoại giao: Tàu sân bay Mỹ thăm Việt Nam nhằm thúc đẩy quan hệ song phương.” Bao Quoc te. https://baoquocte.vn/bo-ngoai-giao-tau-san-bay-my-tham-viet-nam-nham-thuc-day-quan-he-song-phuong-110911.html, accessed on March 24, 2021.
    Vietnam MOFA. October 30, 2020b. “Cơ cấu tổ chức Bộ Ngoại giao.” Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs. http://www.mofa.gov.vn/vi/bng_vietnam/nr070622153725/, accessed on June 2, 2021.
    Vietnam MOHA. 2014. “Luật Tổ chức Quốc hội.” Vietnam Ministry of Home Affairs. https://moha.gov.vn/DATA/DOCUMENT/2016/04/Luat%20To%20chuc%20QH2014.pdf, accessed on June 22, 2020.
    Vietnam MOJ. 2014. “Nghị quyết số 85/2014/QH13 của Quốc hội: Về việc lấy phiếu tín nhiệm, bỏ phiếu tín nhiệm đối với người giữ chức vụ do Quốc hội, Hội đồng nhân dân bầu hoặc phê chuẩn.” Vietnam Ministry of Justice. https://moj.gov.vn/vbpq/lists/vn%20bn%20php%20lut/view_detail.aspx?itemid=30242#:~:text=phi%E1%BA%BFu%20t%C3%ADn%20nhi%E1%BB%87m-,Qu%E1%BB%91c%20h%E1%BB%99i%2C%20H%E1%BB%99i%20%C4%91%E1%BB%93ng%20nh%C3%A2n%20d%C3%A2n%20t%E1%BB%95%20ch%E1%BB%A9c%20l%E1%BA%A5y%20phi%E1%BA%BFu,th%E1%BB%A9%20ba%20c%E1%BB%A7a%20nhi%E1%BB%87m%20k%E1%BB%B3, accessed on July 26, 2020.
    Vietnam MOJ. 2015. “Luật Mặt trận Tổ quốc Việt Nam.” Vietnam Ministry of Justice. https://moj.gov.vn/vbpq/lists/vn%20bn%20php%20lut/view_detail.aspx?itemid=30511, accessed on July 30, 2020.
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    Vietnam WTO Center. August 1, 2021. “Tổng hợp các FTA của Việt Nam.” http://www.trungtamwto.vn/thong-ke/12065-tong-hop-cac-fta-cua-viet-nam-tinh-den-thang-112018, accessed on August 19 2021.

    政策報告、工作報告
    Dinh, Xuan Hung. October 9, 2019. “Âm mưu, thủ đoạn “diễn biến hòa bình” của các thế lực thù địch với văn hóa, văn nghệ chỉ là sự cường điệu, “báo động giả” hay thực sự đáng báo động?.” Tap chi Cong san. http://tapchicongsan.org.vn/web/guest/dau-tranh-phan-bac-cac-luan-dieu-sai-trai-thu-dich/chi-tiet/-/asset_publisher/YqSB2JpnYto9/content/am-muu-thu-oan-dien-bien-hoa-binh-cua-cac-the-luc-thu-ich-voi-van-hoa-van-nghe-chi-la-su-cuong-ieu-bao-ong-gia-hay-thuc-su-ang-bao-ong-, accessed on April 3, 2020.
    Le, Hong Hiep. April 23, 2018b. “Sáng kiến Vành đai và Con đường tại Việt Nam: Thách thức và Triển vọng.” Nghien cuu Quoc te. http://nghiencuuquocte.org/2018/04/23/sang-kien-vanh-dai-va-con-duong-tai-viet-nam-thach-thuc-va-trien-vong/, accessed December 6, 2020.
    Mai, Xuan Ba. January 31, 2015. “Vấn đề đối tác - đối tượng trong chiến lược bảo vệ Tổ quốc.” Tap chi Cong san. http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/quan-triet-va-thuc-hien-nghi-quyet-ai-hoi-xi-cua-ang/-/2018/31759/van-de-doi-tac---doi-tuong-trong-chien-luoc-bao-ve-to-quoc.aspx, accessed on April 21, 2020.
    Nguyen, Dy Nien (DN). 2005. “Bộ trưởng Ngoại giao Nguyễn Dy Niên: Chính sách và hoạt động đối ngoại trong thời kỳ đổi mới.” Ho Chi Minh Department for Foreign Affairs. http://www.mofahcm.gov.vn/vi/mofa/cs_doingoai/pbld/ns050923160500, accessed on July 12, 2020.
    Nguyen, Ngoc Truong (NT). September 10, 2015. “70 năm ngoại giao Việt Nam.” Center for Strategic Studies and International Development. http://cssd.vn/hoat-dong/70-nam-ngoai-giao-viet-nam.htm, accessed on December 1, 2020.
    Nguyen, Thanh Binh (TB). December 29, 2016. “Vai trò của Mặt trận Tổ quốc Việt Nam trong bầu cử đại biểu Quốc hội và Hội đồng nhân dân.” Tạp chí Lý luận chính trị. http://lyluanchinhtri.vn/home/index.php/thuc-tien/item/1789-vai-tro-cua-mat-tran-to-quoc-viet-nam-trong-bau-cu-dai-bieu-quoc-hoi-va-hoi-dong-nhan-dan.html, accessed on July 30, 2020.
    Pham, Binh Minh (BM). October 2, 2020. “Chủ tịch Hồ Chí Minh và phương châm ngoại giao coi trọng hòa hiếu.” Thai Nguyen Department for Foreign Affairs. http://sngv.thainguyen.gov.vn/tin-doi-ngoai-viet-nam/-/asset_publisher/r9PVC4I8cvh7/content/chu-tich-ho-chi-minh-va-phuong-cham-ngoai-giao-coi-trong-hoa-hieu, accessed on June 2, 2021.
    Tao, Thi Quyen. December 2006. “So sánh quy trình lập pháp giữa Thụy Điện và Việt Nam.” Tạp chí Nghiên cứu lập pháp. https://thongtinphapluatdansu.edu.vn/2007/09/17/12345/, accessed on June 22, 2020.
    Tran, Thai Duong. February 1, 2010. “Vai trò, trách nhiệm của Đảng và Nhà nước trong cơ chế thể chế hóa ở Việt Nam hiện nay.” Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Lập pháp số 3+4, (164+165). http://lapphap.vn/Pages/tintuc/tinchitiet.aspx?tintucid=206949, accessed on June 30, 2020.
    網際網路
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