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研究生: 包瑞德
Reed Anderson Bauer
論文名稱: 中國橫向和縱向核武擴散戰略研究
A Holistic Overview of China’s Vertical and Horizontal Nuclear Proliferation Strategy
指導教授: 何漢理
Harry Harding
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 國際事務學院 - 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
International Master's Program in International Studies(IMPIS)
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 168
中文關鍵詞: 核武戰略不擴散核武器條約飛彈及其技術控制制度大國競爭話語權
外文關鍵詞: Nuclear Strategy, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Missile Technology Control Regime, Great Power Competition, Discourse Power
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  • 最適合閲讀本論文的方法是將其分成三篇有關的文章,本文的每一章聚焦於中華人民共和國的核武擴散戰略不同的面向。在第二章,本文主張美國的接觸政策對中國的核武擴散戰略的影響甚微,反而是中國的地緣政治大局對後者的影響較大,例如,蘇聯垮臺以及國際制度的正當性帶動中國的核武擴散行爲。本章也發現,中國目前的戰略使用話語權為改變《不擴散核武器條約》的原則,首先是從放棄武器原則轉型到「大國先放棄」。第三章主張中國沒有加入《飛彈及其技術控制制度》是因爲中國決策者一般而言是反對國際軟法。第四章分析中國的縱向核武擴散戰略,使用Vipin Narang的類型學研究方法,並主張中國的核武戰略仍在轉型中。從區域核武國家到核武大國,以中國的核三位一體擴展以及追求更先進的核武功能(包括Launch Under Attack (LuA) and Launch on Warning LoW)為證據。


    This thesis is best read as three distinct, interrelated papers, with each chapter focusing on a different aspect of Chinese nuclear proliferation. In Chapter 2, this paper argues that the U.S. Engagement Policy had a negligible impact on China’s nuclear proliferation strategy, and that these changes were instead driven by China’s larger strategic environment, namely the collapse of the Soviet Union and the larger legitimating power of international institutionalism. This chapter also finds that China is attempting to dialectically re-shape the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime away from disarmament, instead focusing on great power competition. Chapter 3 argues that China has failed to accede to the Missile Technology Control Regime due to China’s opposition to the regime’s soft-law framework, while joining the Nuclear Supplier’s Group as it did not require any internal reforms. Finally, Chapter 4 examines China’s vertical proliferation strategy, and using a typology developed by Vipin Narang, empirically argues that China is transitioning from a regional nuclear power status to a nuclear superpower, based upon the expansion of China’s nuclear triad abilities as well its pursual of additional capabilities such as Launch Under Attack (LuA) and Launch on Warning (LoW).

    Table of Contents
    Acknowledgements 2
    Abstract 3
    Chapter 1: Introduction, Historical Background, and Literature Review 7
    Section 1.1: Introduction 7
    1.1.1 Overview 7
    1.1.2 Research Question 9
    1.1.3 Importance 12
    1.1.4 Definitions 13
    Section 1.2: Historical Background 17
    1.2.1 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime 17
    1.2.2 The Missile Technology and Control Regime 18
    1.2.3 Early U.S.-China Nuclear Negotiations 20
    1.2.4 Changing Dynamics in Nuclear Negotiations 22
    1.2.5 Path to Compliance 23
    1.2.6 Recent Trends 26
    Section 1.3:Literature Review 28
    1.3.1 China’s Nuclear and Proliferation Policy 28
    1.3.2 China’s Grand Strategy 32
    1.3.3 China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy 36
    1.3.4 U.S. Grand Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era 40
    Section 1.4 Research Design and Material 47
    Section 1.5: Research Methodology 49
    1.5.1: Liberal Institutionalism, China, and the NPT 49
    1.5.2: Hard vs Soft Law and the MTCR, NPR 51
    1.5.3: China’s Regional Nuclear Power Goals 52
    Chapter 2: Judging Engagement: What role did the U.S. Engagement Policy Play in Shaping China’s Nuclear Proliferation Policy? 56
    Section 2.1: Introduction 56
    Section 2.2: The Scholarly Debate 59
    Section 2.3: Liberal Institutionalism and the NPT 63
    Section 2.4: Operationalizing Policy Effectiveness 68
    Section 2.5: The Impact of Engagement on China’s Nuclear Proliferation Strategy 70
    2.5.1 The Engagement Policy 71
    2.5.2 The Legitimating Power of the NPT 75
    2.5.3 PRC Strategic Thinking 77
    2.5.4 China’s Nuclear Interests 83
    Section 2.6: Conclusion 86
    Chapter 3: Discrepancies in Compliance: China’s Differing Attitudes Between the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime 89
    Section 3.1: Introduction 89
    Section 3.2: Chinese Scholarly Perception of Weapons Proliferation 92
    Section 3.3 Understanding the Incentives of the MTCR vs the NPR 97
    Section 3.4 Comparing the NSG and the MTCR: Efficacy and Legitimation 102
    Section 3.5 Conclusion 106
    Chapter 4: China’s Shifting Nuclear Strategy in an Era of Resurgent Great Power Competition 107
    Section 4.1: Introduction 107
    Section 4.2: Regional Nuclear Powers versus Nuclear Superpowers 110
    Section 4.3: The Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy as a Regional Power 112
    Section 4.4: Nuclear Reforms under Xi Jinping 118
    4.4.1 Expansion and Advancement 119
    4.4.2 Structural Changes 122
    Section 4.5: Comparative Analysis of China and Russian Nuclear Posture 127
    4.5.1 Capabilities 128
    4.5.2 Employment Modes 135
    4.5.3 Command-and-Control Procedures 138
    Section 4.6 Conclusion 142
    Chapter 5: Conclusion 144
    Section 5.1 Discussion 144
    Section 5.2: Future Research 149
    References 151
    English Citations 151
    Chinese Citations 167


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