| 研究生: |
温晉祥 Wen, Chin-Hsiang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
跳躍風險相關之匯率選擇權: 傅立葉轉換評價法、Martingale法與蒙地卡羅法之比較 |
| 指導教授: |
林士貴
Lin, Shih-Kuei |
| 口試委員: |
廖四郎
黃台心 江彌修 王昭文 吳庭斌 |
| 學位類別: |
博士
Doctor |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度: | 108 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 56 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | Amin and Jarrow model 、外匯選擇權 、相關跳躍風險 、匯率 、利率 、跳躍風險 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Amin and Jarrow model, currency option, correlated jump risks, exchange rate, interest rate, jump risks |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000074 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:130 下載:5 |
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本論文觀察最近十多年來國際上幾個主要國家利率與匯率的走勢以及同一個期間內的跳躍情況,發現走勢有相關性存在,並且經常同時發生跳躍。為了此特殊性質,本研究建立一個考慮走勢與跳躍相關的模型來捕捉此特性,稱作考慮相關跳躍模型 (Amin and Jarrow model with correlated jump risks, AJ-CJ)。實證結果發現AJ-CJ比起幾何布朗運動 (Geometric Brownian motion, GBM)、Amin and Jarrow 模型 (Amin and Jarrow model, AJ)、考慮獨立跳躍模型 (Amin and Jarrow model with independent jump risks, AJ-IJ) 可以更加捕捉利率及匯率的特性。利用martingale法與傅立葉轉評價法推導出AJ-CJ下的匯率選擇權評價公式並且比較兩種方法與蒙地卡羅法之計算速度與準確度,發現三種方法的評價結果很接近,且傅立葉轉評價法計算速度比另外兩種方法快許多。實證發現,大多數的例子中,AJ-CJ改善了樣本內及樣本外定價誤差,也代表可以更精準地評價匯率選擇權。研究結果支持利率與匯率存在相關性及跳躍間也存在相關。
In this paper, we investigate the trends of interest rates and exchange rates in several major international countries in the past ten years and find that the trends are correlated and often jump at the same time. Given the characteristics of correlated jump risks in interest rates and exchange rates, we construct a new model called Amin and Jarrow model with correlated jump risks (AJ-CJ) to capture the movements. The empirical results in exchange rates and interest rates data with the log-likelihood value show that AJ-CJ can capture the interest rates and the exchange rates better than Geometric Brownian model (GBM), Amin and Jarrow model (AJ), and Amin and Jarrow model with independent jump risks (AJ-IJ). After finding the martingale condition, we derive the pricing formula for currency options under AJ-CJ with the traditional martingale method and generalized Fourier transform method. This study adds the Monte Carlo method to verify the evaluation results and compare calculating time. We found that the evaluation result of traditional martingale method and Fourier evaluation method is very close to the Monte Carlo method. The calculating time of Fourier evaluation method is much faster than traditional martingale method and the Monte Carlo method. In addition, the empirical performance of the option data finds that AJ-CJ improves the in-sample and out-of-sample pricing error performances in most cases. Therefore, we conclude that correlated jump risks between interest rates and exchange rates.
第一章 緒論 6
第一節 研究背景 6
第二節 研究動機 6
第二章 文獻回顧與研究架構 9
第一節 文獻回顧 9
第二節 研究架構 11
第三章 研究方法與模型假設 11
第一節 考慮相關跳躍之動態過程 11
第二節 EM演算法 13
第三節 概似比檢定 14
第四節 測度轉換 14
第五節 匯率選擇權評價公式-Martingale法 16
第六節 匯率選擇權評價公式-傅立葉轉換法 17
第四章 政府債券與匯率市場實證分析 17
第一節 LIBORs 18
第二節 匯率 19
第三節 相關性 19
第四節 參數估計 19
第五節 模型選擇 21
第五章 匯率選擇權實證分析 22
第一節 匯率選擇權市場價格 22
第二節 樣本內定價誤差 22
第三節 樣本外定價誤差 23
第四節 模型計算時間比較 24
第六章 結論 24
參考文獻 25
附錄A: 測度轉換 27
附錄B:平賭條件 31
附錄C:Martingale法及匯率選擇權評價公式 32
附錄D:傅立葉轉換法及匯率選擇權評價公式 34
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