| 研究生: |
卡詩詠 Kamke, Leonard |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
移民與退休金制度:日本與德國的比較研究 Immigration and the Pension System: A Comparative Study of Japan and Germany |
| 指導教授: |
吳文傑
Wen-Chieh, Wu |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) International Master's Program of Applied Economics and Social Development(IMES) |
| 論文出版年: | 2025 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 132 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 移民 、外籍勞動力 、隨收隨付制年金 、年金可攜性 、年金流失 、日本 、德國 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | immigration, foreign labour, pay-as-you-go pensions, pension portability, pension leakage, Japan, Germany |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:187 下載:0 |
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戰後的日本與德國皆以隨收隨付制(PAYG)為基礎重建大型公共年金制度,並將老年經濟安全與在擴張中的勞動市場中長期繳費的歷程相連結。兩國如今皆面臨快速人口老化,但在外籍勞動力的規模與結構上出現明顯分歧:德國逐步發展為高移民國家;日本則在戰後大多數時期維持相對小規模且高度管制的外國居民人口,直到近年才擴大勞動移民管道。本論文的研究問題為:在戰後日本與德國的比較中,外籍勞動力如何影響兩國的隨收隨付制公共年金制度,並從兩個相互連動的面向加以檢視:永續性(在人口老化下,PAYG 年金制度維持長期融資能力的財務能力)與公平性(對外籍勞工退休保障之分配結果)。
在方法上,本研究採比較歷史制度分析設計,時間範圍涵蓋 1945 至 2025 年。研究結合長期描述性資料序列(外國居民存量與年金制度總體指標)與制度分析,追蹤外籍勞工如何進入受年金覆蓋之就業、累積繳費年資、取得(或未能取得)給付資格,以及退出制度。本文特別聚焦兩項機制:(1)日本形式上屬於「暫時性」方案中的定居動態,即重複入境、政策階梯與家庭錨定如何延長居留;(2)與返國移動及退費規則相關的年金流失(pension leakage),並比較日本的一次性退還金管道,與德國較為嚴格的退費邏輯,以及透過歐盟協調與雙邊安排所形成之相對較強的可攜性。
綜合兩國個案,本文分析指出,移民對年金制度的影響,與其說取決於人數規模本身,不如說更取決於制度設計,尤其是涵蓋規則、典型受保職涯長度、可攜性,以及退出選項所形成的誘因。這些制度特徵可能產生一種權衡:制度在短期內獲得繳費收入,但部分移民累積到的年金權益較弱。本文最後釐清外籍勞動力在何種條件下,較可能在不損及分配公平性的前提下,支持隨收隨付制公共年金制度的財務永續性。
Post-war Japan and Germany rebuilt large public pension systems around pay-as-you-go (PAYG) finance, linking old-age security to long contribution histories in expanding labour markets. Both now face rapid population ageing, yet they diverged sharply in the scale and structure of foreign labour: Germany evolved into a high-immigration country, while Japan maintained a relatively small and tightly regulated foreign-resident population for most of the post-war era and expanded labour-migration channels only recently. This thesis asks: in a comparison of post-WWII Japan and Germany, how have PAYG public pension systems been influenced by foreign labour, along two linked dimensions; sustainability (the PAYG pension system’s fiscal capacity to maintain financing over time under population ageing) and fairness (distributional consequences for foreign workers’ retirement security).
Methodologically, the study uses a comparative historical-institutional design covering 1945-2025. It combines long-run descriptive series (foreign-resident stocks and pension-system aggregates) with institutional analysis tracing how foreign workers enter covered employment, accumulate contribution histories, qualify (or fail to qualify) for benefits, and exit. Two mechanisms receive focused attention: (1) settlement dynamics within formally “temporary” programmes in Japan, where repeated entry, policy ladders, and household anchors can extend residence, and (2) pension leakage, associated with return migration and refund rules, contrasted between Japan’s lump-sum withdrawal channel and Germany’s more restrictive refund logic alongside comparatively stronger portability through EU coordination and bilateral arrangements.
Across the two cases, the analysis suggests that immigration’s pension relevance depends less on headcounts alone than on institutional design, especially coverage rules, the typical length of insured careers, portability, and the incentives created by exit options. These features can generate trade-offs in which systems receive short-run contributions while some migrants accrue weaker pension entitlements. The thesis concludes by clarifying the conditions under which foreign labour is more likely to support PAYG pension-system fiscal sustainability without undermining distributional fairness.
1. Introduction 7
2. Conceptual and measurement framework for the fiscal impact of immigration 11
2.1 Empirical evidence on the fiscal impact of immigration 14
2.2 Immigration and PAYG pension systems 16
2.3 Synthesis and research gap 19
3. Research design 21
3.1 Data and sources 21
3.2 Measures and definitions 22
3.3 Model 24
3.4 Scenarios, assumptions, and sensitivity analysis 25
3.5 Validation, robustness, and limitations 26
3.6 Ethical and interpretive cautions 26
4. Historical Overview and Periodization: Migration and PAYG Pension Development in Japan and Germany, 1945-2025 27
5. Settlement of Temporary Workers in Japan 31
6. Pension leakage through foreign workers leaving Japan and Germany 36
6.1. Japan 36
6.2. Germany 37
7. Japan’s and Germany’s Pension systems in comparison 38
7.1. The Japanese Pension System 38
7.1.1. Structure and Coverage 39
7.1.2. Financing and Reserve Fund 40
7.1.3. Corporate and Private Pensions 42
7.1.4. Role in Society and Economy 42
7.1.5. Challenges and Reforms (Japan) 43
7.2. The German Pension System 43
7.2.1. Challenges and Reforms (Germany) 45
7.3. Japan and Germany: Comparative Pension Strategies 45
7.4. Migration models in comparison 51
8. Analyses 54
8.1. 1945-1960: Foundations and Rebuild: Pensions, labour, and Migration 55
8.1.1. Migration regime and reality: legal design, who arrived (or didn’t), settlement markers 56
8.1.2. 1945-1960:Pension levers: parameters and how 1950s migration fed them 58
8.1.3. How migration fed German levers in the 1950s. 58
8.1.4. Japan’s employee-first rebuild and the 1961 boundary. 59
8.1.5. How migration fed Japanese levers in the 1950s. 59
8.1.6. Synthesis and implications 59
8.2. 1961-1973 61
8.2.1. Context: high growth until oil shock 61
8.2.2. Migration regime and effects 62
8.2.3. Pension levers: contribution rates, indexation, retirement age, and migration 64
8.2.4. Descriptive outcomes: Germany vs. Japan 65
8.2.5. Pension read-out 67
8.3. 1974-1989: Growth, sector mix, and mounting aging pressure 68
8.3.1. West Germany after the 1973 recruitment stop: legal design and who arrived 68
8.3.2. Japan through the 1980s: sustained low-immigration design and late-decade strain 70
8.3.3. Pension levers and how the decade’s migration fed them 71
8.3.4. Descriptive outcomes: long-run migrant stock and net migration anchors, Germany vs. Japan (1974-1989) 73
8.3.5. Pension read-out 75
8.4. 1990-2003: Growth mix and ageing pressure 76
8.4.1. Migration regime & reality: legal design, who arrived, settlement markers 77
8.4.2. Pension levers and how 1990s migration fed them 79
8.4.3. Pension read-out 82
8.4.4. Net direction for the pension balance 83
8.5. 2004-2010: An era of reforms 83
8.5.1. Growth/sector mix and ageing pressure 84
8.5.2. Migration regime & reality: legal design, who arrived, settlement markers 85
8.5.3. Pension levers: contribution rate, indexation, retirement age, and how migration fed them 86
8.5.4. Descriptive outcomes 88
8.5.5. Pension read-out 89
8.6. 2011-2017 90
8.6.1. Context: growth mix and ageing pressure 90
8.6.2. Migration regime and reality: legal design, who arrived, settlement markers 90
8.6.3. Pension levers: contribution rates, indexation, retirement age, and how migration fed them 93
8.6.4. Descriptive outcomes 95
8.6.5. Pension read-out 96
8.7. 2018-2025: Turning Points in Migration 97
8.7.1. Context: growth mix and aging pressure 97
8.7.2. Recruiting Immigrant Workers 97
8.7.3. Migration regime & reality: who arrived, what changed, where settlement shows 98
8.7.4. Pension levers and the migration-pension channels 100
8.7.5. Descriptive outcomes 101
8.7.6. Pension read-out 102
9. Conclusion 103
9.1 Comparative findings 104
9.2 Implications 105
9.3 Limitations and future research 107
10. References 109
11. Appendix 125
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