跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 黃信凱
Huang, Hsin Kai
論文名稱: 穩健型最適避險比率估計-以台灣市場為例
Robust estimation of the optimal hedge ratio
指導教授: 郭維裕
Kuo, Wei Yu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 28
中文關鍵詞: 最適避險比率指數加權移動平均滾視窗法
外文關鍵詞: optimal hedge ratio, EWMA, Rolling Window Method
相關次數: 點閱:211下載:78
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • Because on the method of Harris and Shen (2003), we implement the robust estimator of optimal hedge ratio in Taiwan stock market. By using the Taiwan Stock Index and Taiwan Stock Index Futures, we used the robust estimation of optimal hedge ratio. We use two estimators, the rolling window model and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), to estimate the robust optimal hedge ratio. We also compare the hedging effectiveness of the robust hedge ratios and the traditional least- squared hedge ratios. We find that the volatility of the hedged portfolio using robust optimal hedge ratio is substantially lower than that of the portfolio using the traditional hedge ratios. With the less excessive volatility, the transaction cost decrease substantially, and the cost of rebalancing portfolio is lower as well.


    Because on the method of Harris and Shen (2003), we implement the robust estimator of optimal hedge ratio in Taiwan stock market. By using the Taiwan Stock Index and Taiwan Stock Index Futures, we used the robust estimation of optimal hedge ratio. We use two estimators, the rolling window model and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), to estimate the robust optimal hedge ratio. We also compare the hedging effectiveness of the robust hedge ratios and the traditional least- squared hedge ratios. We find that the volatility of the hedged portfolio using robust optimal hedge ratio is substantially lower than that of the portfolio using the traditional hedge ratios. With the less excessive volatility, the transaction cost decrease substantially, and the cost of rebalancing portfolio is lower as well.

    1. INTRODUCTION 1
    2. METHODOLOGY 4
    2.1 Standard estimation of the OHR 6
    2.2 Robust estimation of the OHR 9
    3. DATA 11
    4. EMPRICAL RESULTS 15
    5. CONCLUSION 19
    REFERENCE 20
    Appendix 22

    Bollerslev, T. (1986): “Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.” Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
    Bollerslev, T., & Chou, R. Y., & Kroner, K. F. (1992): “ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence.” Journal of Econometrics, 52: 5-59.
    Cecchetti, S. G., Cumby, R. E., & Figlewski, S. “Estimation of optimal futures hedge”. Review of Econometrics and Statistics, 70, 623-630.
    Donald Lien, (2005): “A note on the superiority of the OLS hedge ratio.” Journal of Futures Markets Volume25, Issue11, Date: November 2005, Pages: 1121-1126
    Donald Lien, (2008): “A further note on the optimality of the OLS hedge strategy.” Journal of Futures Markets Volume28, Issue3, Date: March 2008, Pages: 308-311
    Donald Lien, (2008): “Optimal futures heading: Quadratic versus exponential utility functions.” Journal of Futures Markets Volume28, Issue2, Date: February 2008, Pages: 208-211
    Ederington, Louis H., (1979): "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets." Journal of Finance, 157-170.
    Engle, Robert F., (1982): "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation." Econometrica 50 (July 1982), 987-1008.
    Guermat, C., & Harris, R. D. F. (2002): “Robust conditional variance estimation and value at risk.” Journal of Risk, 4, 25-41.
    Harvey J Witt, Ted C Schroeder and Marvin L Hayenga (1987): “Comparison of Analytical Approaches for Estimating Hedge Ratios for Agricultural commodities.” The Journal of Futures Markets (1986-1998), Apr 1987, 7, 2, ABI/INFORM Global pg. 135
    22
    H. Working. (1953): “Futures Trading and Hedging.” The American Economic Review, Vol. 43, No. 3 (Jun., 1953), pp. 314-343
    John C. Hull “Options, Futures and Other Derivatives.” 5th edition Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458
    Johnson, L. L. (1960): “The theory of hedging and speculation in commodity futures.” Rev. Econ. Stud. 27 (1960): 139-51
    Myers, R. J., & Thompson, S. R. (1989): “Generalized optimal hedge ratio estimation.” American Journal of Agriculture Economics, 71, 858-868.
    Myers, R. J., (1991): “Estimating Time-Varying Optimal Hedge Ratios on Futures Markets.” The Journal of Futures Markets, Feb 1991;
    Phil Holmes. “Stock index futures hedging: hedge ratio estimation, duration effects, expiration effects and hedge ratio stability.” Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Volume 23 Issue 1, Pages 63 - 77
    Richard D. F. Harris & Jian Shen. (2003): ”Robust estimation of the optimal hedge ratio.” The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol.23, No. 8, 799-816
    Wilson H. S. Tong (1996): “An examination of dynamic hedging.” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 15, No.1, pp. 19-35

    QR CODE
    :::