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研究生： 葛卓強
Graham,Joshua
論文名稱： 政府政策對於風力發電的影響：台灣與中國之比較
指導教授： 于卓民
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA)
論文出版年： 2007
畢業學年度： 95
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 114
中文關鍵詞： 風力發電
相關次數： 點閱：169  下載：103 
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    • Although wind energy is still unable to compete with traditional forms of power production on the free market, it is the world’s fastest-growing energy source with an average annual growth rate of 29 percent. This growth is mainly due to favorable policies set by the government. The reasons for these policies include the reduction of: pollution, fossil fuel dependency, and/or carbon emissions. Countries have utilized a number of wind energy incentive programs which have produced varying results.
    In the past, researchers have found that the “fixed tariff” incentive policy stimulates growth in the wind energy market, but produces a high price. In contrast, the “tendering tariff” has been found to stimulate much less growth with a low price.
    The cases of Taiwan and China have been analyzed in this thesis, and it was found that, contrary to expectations, the fixed tariff system in Taiwan has a lower price and has produced less growth than the tendering tariff system in China. The reasons for this purported in this thesis is that the model for understanding the dynamics of the policy was wrong. The price under the fixed tariff system determines the amount of development and the amount of land offered in the auctions determines the amount development in the tendering tariff system. The price in the tendering tariff system depends on the amount of competition in the bidding process. Taiwan has been frugal in their pricing of wind generated electricity and the Chinese government has shown determination to offer enough land for development in federal and local auctions to triple its goals.
    Other policies have also been analyzed including those favoring local companies. China’s large market has given it a bargaining tool for the use of such policies to stimulate joint ventures and local manufacturing, but Taiwan is too small for companies to take interest in similar policies.
    In Taiwan, companies have played a key role in establishing infrastructure because there was originally a general lack of policy despite political goals. This gave rise to the concept of the “global wind energy company” presented in this thesis. This type of company analyzes the markets of numerous countries before making the decision to enter. To find truly uncontested markets, a company may have to help create infrastructure in markets where it is lacking. Models of the country selection process are given along with strategy models for companies within the different policy systems.

    Abstract i
    Acknowledgements iv
    Table of Contents vi
    List of Figures ix
    List of Tables x
    Preface xi
    Chapter 1 12
    INTRODUCTION 12
    1.1 The History of Wind Energy and Policy 12
    1.2 The Reasons for Incentive Policy 3
    1.2.1 Potential Energy Shortages 3
    1.2.2 Global Warming 6
    1.2.3 Pollution 8
    1.3 The Benefits of Wind Energy 8
    1.3.1 Wind Energy is Renewable 8
    1.3.2 Wind Energy is Widely Distributed 9
    1.3.3 Wind Energy is Clean and has Few Carbon Emissions 9
    1.4 Wind Energy’s Price Competitiveness 10
    1.5 The Goals of Policy 13
    1.6 Strategic Framework 14
    1.6 .1 Theory of Constraints 15
    1.6.2 “Global” vs. “Local” Strategy 16
    1.6.3 Emergent Core Competencies 16
    1.7 Incentive Policies and Strategy 17
    1.7.1 The Fixed Tariff System (Taiwan and Germany) 19
    1.7.2 The Tendering Tariff System (China) 20
    1.7.3 The Fixed Quota System (USA, UK, and China) 21
    1.7.4 Summary 21
    1.8 Hypotheses Derived from Previous Research 22
    1.9 The True Determinants of Development and Price within the Fixed Tariff and Tendering Tariff Systems 23
    1.10 Other Evidence of Strategic Focus 24
    Chapter 2 24
    RELATED WORK & BACKGROUND 24
    2.1 Research on Wind Energy Policy 24
    2.1.1 Incentive Policy Comparison 25
    2.1.2 The Reasons for the Differences in the Findings of Menanteau et al. and this Thesis 28
    2.1.3 Stimulation of Industry 29
    2.2 Background of Wind Energy Policy in Taiwan 31
    2.2.1 Wind Potential in Taiwan 34
    2.2.2 InfraVest 34
    2.2.3 TaiPower 36
    2.3 Background of Wind Energy in China 37
    2.3.1 The History of Wind Energy Policy in China 38
    2.3.1.1 The “Initial Phase” 38
    2.3.1.2 The “Incremental Phase” 39
    2.3.1.3 The “Coordinated Phase” 40
    2.3.2 China’s Wind Energy Policy Controversy 44
    Chapter 3 47
    METHODOLOGY 47
    3.1 Research Done in Taiwan 47
    3.2 Research Conducted for China 48
    Chapter 4 49
    POLICY AND WIND DEVELOPMENT COMPANY STRATEGY IN TAIWAN 49
    4.1 Overview 49
    4.2 “Global strategy” 49
    4.2.1 Establishing the Incentive Structure 50
    4.2.2 Permitting Approval 52
    4.2.3 Further Lobbying Efforts 52
    4.3 “Local Strategy” 53
    4.3.1 Land Rights Acquisition vs. Market Share 53
    4.3.2 Land Rights Acquisition vs. Efficiency 54
    4.3.3 Evidence of Fierce Competition in Taiwan 55
    4.2.4 Other Ways to Achieve Efficiency 56
    4.2.5 Finance 57
    4.3 Policy to Stimulate Local Industry 58
    4.4 Emergent Core Competencies 59
    4.4.1 Land Rights Acquisition 60
    4.4.2 Permits 60
    4.4.3 Other Emergent Competencies 61
    4.5 Summary for Taiwan 62
    Chapter 5 63
    POLICY AND WIND DEVELOPMENT COMPANY STRATEGY IN CHINA 63
    5.1 Strategy for the Tendering Tariff 64
    5.2 The Influence of the Fixed Quota on Federal Auctions 66
    5.3 Local Markets 69
    5.5 Local Manufacture Policy 71
    5.6 Anticipation of a change in policy 72
    5.7 Emergent Core Competencies 73
    5.8 Summary 75
    Chapter 6 77
    ANALYSIS 77
    6.1 Explanation of Findings 77
    6.1.1 The Established Price of the Fixed Tariff Determines the Amount of Development 77
    6.1.2 To Promote Rapid Development in the Fixed Tariff System, Price Should be Set High and then Lowered 79
    6.1.3 The Number of Sites Which a Government Auctions in the Tendering Tariff System Determines the Amount of Development 81
    6.2 Strategy within the Policy Frameworks 81
    6.2.1 Fixed Tariff 81
    6.2.2 Tendering Tariff 83
    6.3 Company Vision 85
    6.3.1 Resource Based View of Mature vs. New Markets 87
    6.3.2 A Model for Estimating Market Share 90
    6.4 Policy Goals 92
    6.4.1 The Idea of a Hybrid System 93
    6.4.2 The Goal of Establishing a Local Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry 94
    6.4.3 The Goal of Promoting Local Windfarm Development Companies 95
    6.5 Summary 95
    6.6 Suggestions for future research 97
    Appendices 98
    Bibliography 114


    List of Figures

    Figure 1 Global Electricity Production by Source in 2004 4
    Figure 2 Non-hydro Renewable Energies in Electricity Production in 2004 (“Other” in Figure 1) 6
    Figure 3 Observed Changes in Physical and Biological Systems vs. Surface Temperature between 1970 and 2004 7
    Figure 4 The Cost of Generating Electricity (Pence per kWh) 12
    Figure 5 The Policy Formation Process 14
    Figure 6 Classifications of Incentive Policy Instruments 18
    Figure 7 Home Market Size vs. Installed Global Capacity for WT Manufacturers 31
    Figure 9 Policies Under Administration by the NDRC 42
    Figure 10 Comparison of Goals and Federal Auctions 68
    Figure 11 80
    Figure 12 The Shift of Strategic Focus Due to Constraints 83
    Figure 13 The Search for Advantage in Auctions 84
    Figure 15 Decision Tree for Multinational Wind Energy Developers 87
    Figure 16 Final market share if Company 3 acquires land twice as fast 91
    Figure 17 Final market share if Company 3 acquires land twice as fast and there has been land leases 92
    Figure 18 Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery 99
    Figure 19 EIA World Conventional Oil Production Scenarios 100
    Figure 20 Distribution of Proved Reserves 101
    Figure 21 Peak Discovery vs. Demand 101
    Figure 22 Worldwide Possible Coal Production 102
    Figure 23 World Production vs. Requirement 1947-2003 103
    Figure 24 Key Impacts as a Function of Increasing Global Average Temperature Change 106
    Figure 25 Cost of Energy - Large Windfarm vs. Small 111


    List of Tables

    Table 1 Comparitive Cost of Wind and Other Energy Sources 11
    Table 2 Comparison of Policy and Focus of Competition in Taiwan and China 21
    Table 3 Hypotheses and Results 22
    Table 4 Comparison of Average Price Paid for Energy from Windfarms 25
    Table 5 Comparison of Installed Capacity 25
    Table 6 Chinese Concession Model 2006 42
    Table 7 Chinese Wind Farm Bidding Rates 44
    Table 8 Profit with Various Wind Availabilities 54
    Table 9 Relative Costs of Windfarm Construction 64
    Table 10 Wind Turbine Exports and Imports 73
    Table 11 Global Vision vs. Local Vision 85
    Table 12 Mature Markets with Fixed Tariff System 88
    Table 13 Newly Developed Markets with Fixed Tariff System 88
    Table 14 Newly Developed Markets with Tendering Tariff System 88

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