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研究生: 莊承勳
Chuang, Cheng-Hsun
論文名稱: 卷積神經網路結合投資組合理論之交易策略實證研究: 以台灣股市為例
The Empirical Research of Trading Strategies for Convolutional Neural Network and Portfolio Theory on Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 廖四郎
Liao, Szu-Lang
口試委員: 廖四郎
Liao, Szu-Lang
林建秀
Lin, Chien-Hsiu
王昭文
Wang, Chou-Wen
黃星華
Huang, Hsing-Hua
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 39
中文關鍵詞: 量化交易卷積神經網路投資組合平均-變異數分析動能交易
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900301
相關次數: 點閱:147下載:10
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  • 本研究從台灣前60大市值比上市公司中,挑出49家公司為樣本,蒐集2006-2018間的資料,採用技術指標作為變數,以卷積神經網路預測為選股策略,選取投資組合成分股, 再利用「平均-變異數」分析配置權重,並根據不同風險趨避程度,建構不同投組。結果卷積神經網路的投資策略,在訓練樣本期間(2010~2016年)內的績效表現相當好,但應用在樣本外期間(2008~2009年,2017~2018年)則表現不佳。若使用此種交易策略與簡單動能策略比較,則動能策略建構的投資組合能在訓練樣本外期間表現的較佳。


    This Research selects 49 companies from the top 60 companies in Taiwan as a sample, collects stock data from 2006 to 2018. Choose technical indicators as variables, and use convolutional neural network prediction as a stock selection strategy to form a portfolio. In the selected stocks, the “Mean-Variance Analysis” is used to allocate the asset weights, and different investment groups are constructed according to different risk aversion levels. The result of this study shows that: the investment strategy of the convolutional neural network is quite good during the training period (2010~2016) of data. However, the strategy make negative return during the out-of-sample period (2008-2009, 2017~2018). With this performance, compare to a simple momentum strategy, the momentum portfolio can perform better during the out-of-sample period.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機與背景 1
    第二節 研究目的 2
    第三節 研究架構 3
    第二章 文獻回顧 4
    第一節 神經網路應用於股市預測 4
    第二節 動能交易策略與投資組合理論 5
    第三節 總結 5
    第三章 研究方法 6
    第一節 研究對象 6
    第二節 股市交易技術指標 6
    第三節 卷積神經網路 9
    第四節 馬可維茲 平均-變異數分析 18
    第四章 實證研究 22
    第一節 實驗架構 22
    第二節 實驗結果 25
    第五章 結論與建議 37
    第一節 結論 37
    第二節 未來展望 37
    參考文獻 38

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