| 研究生: |
莊承勳 Chuang, Cheng-Hsun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
卷積神經網路結合投資組合理論之交易策略實證研究: 以台灣股市為例 The Empirical Research of Trading Strategies for Convolutional Neural Network and Portfolio Theory on Taiwan Stock Market |
| 指導教授: |
廖四郎
Liao, Szu-Lang |
| 口試委員: |
廖四郎
Liao, Szu-Lang 林建秀 Lin, Chien-Hsiu 王昭文 Wang, Chou-Wen 黃星華 Huang, Hsing-Hua |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 107 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 39 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 量化交易 、卷積神經網路 、投資組合 、平均-變異數分析 、動能交易 |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900301 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:147 下載:10 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本研究從台灣前60大市值比上市公司中,挑出49家公司為樣本,蒐集2006-2018間的資料,採用技術指標作為變數,以卷積神經網路預測為選股策略,選取投資組合成分股, 再利用「平均-變異數」分析配置權重,並根據不同風險趨避程度,建構不同投組。結果卷積神經網路的投資策略,在訓練樣本期間(2010~2016年)內的績效表現相當好,但應用在樣本外期間(2008~2009年,2017~2018年)則表現不佳。若使用此種交易策略與簡單動能策略比較,則動能策略建構的投資組合能在訓練樣本外期間表現的較佳。
This Research selects 49 companies from the top 60 companies in Taiwan as a sample, collects stock data from 2006 to 2018. Choose technical indicators as variables, and use convolutional neural network prediction as a stock selection strategy to form a portfolio. In the selected stocks, the “Mean-Variance Analysis” is used to allocate the asset weights, and different investment groups are constructed according to different risk aversion levels. The result of this study shows that: the investment strategy of the convolutional neural network is quite good during the training period (2010~2016) of data. However, the strategy make negative return during the out-of-sample period (2008-2009, 2017~2018). With this performance, compare to a simple momentum strategy, the momentum portfolio can perform better during the out-of-sample period.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 神經網路應用於股市預測 4
第二節 動能交易策略與投資組合理論 5
第三節 總結 5
第三章 研究方法 6
第一節 研究對象 6
第二節 股市交易技術指標 6
第三節 卷積神經網路 9
第四節 馬可維茲 平均-變異數分析 18
第四章 實證研究 22
第一節 實驗架構 22
第二節 實驗結果 25
第五章 結論與建議 37
第一節 結論 37
第二節 未來展望 37
參考文獻 38
[1] 王春峰、屠新曙、厉斌(2002),效用函数意义下投资组合有效选择问题的研究,中国管理科学,第10卷第2期,4月,頁15-19。
[2] 李顯儀、吳幸姬(2009),技術分析資訊對共同基金從眾行為的影響,臺大管理論叢,第20卷第1期,12月,頁227-260。
[3] 陳嘉惠、高郁惠、劉玉珍(2002),投資人偏好與資產配置。臺灣管理學刊,第1卷第2期,2月,頁213-232。
[4] 詹錦宏、吳莉禎(2011),動能投資策略於台灣股票市場之應用—含金融海嘯之影響,會計學報,第3卷第2期,5月,頁1-22。
[5] Allen, F. & R. Karjalainen (1999). ‘‘Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules,’’ Journal of Financial Economics, 51, 245-271.
[6] Bai, S., J. Kolter & V. Koltun (2018). ‘‘An empirical evaluation of generic convolutional and recurrent networks for sequence modeling,’’ Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.01271.
[7] Bodie, Z., A. Kane & A. Marcus (1999). Investments, 4th ed. McGraw-Hill Companies, 178-193.
[8] Cesarone, F., A. Scozzari & F. Tardella (2010). ‘‘Portfolio selection problems in practice: a comparison between linear and quadratic optimization models,’’ Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.3594
[9] De Bondt, W. & R. Thaler (1985). ‘‘Does the Stock Market Overreact?,’’ Journal of Finance, 40, 793-805.
[10] Jegadeesh, N. & S. Titman (1993). ‘‘Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Market Efficiency,’’ Journal of Finance, 48, 65-91.
[11] LeCun, Y., L. Bottou, Y. Bengio & P. Haffner (1998). ‘‘Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition,’’ Proc. IEEE, 86, 2278-2324.
[12] Lo, A. W. and A. C. MacKinlay (1990). ‘‘When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market-Overreaction,’’ Review of Financial Studies, 3, 175-208.
[13] Markowitz, H. (1952). ‘‘Portfolio Selection,’’ Journal of Finance 7, 77-91.
[14] Thawornwong, S., D.Enke & C. Dagli (2003). ‘‘Neural Networks as a Decision Maker for Stock Trading: A Technical Analysis Approach,’’ International Journal of Smart Engineering System Design, 5(4), 313-325.
[15] Vejendla, A. & D. Enke (2013). ‘‘Evaluation of GARCH, RNN and FNN Models for Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets,’’ Journal of Financial Risk Management, 10(1), 41-49.
[16] White, H. (1988). ‘‘Economic prediction using neural networks: the case of IBM daily stock returns,’’ Proc. IEEE int. conf. on neural networks, 2, 451-458.
[17] Wood, D. & B. Dasgupta (1996). ‘‘Classifying trend movements in the MSCI U.S.A. capital market index-A comparison of regression, arima and neural network methods,’’ Computers & Operations Research, 23 , 611-622.