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研究生: 林金源
Akrawat Siripattanachok
論文名稱: 政變對經濟表現的影響:1958年泰國政變和1966年印尼政變的合成控制證據
The effect of coup d’etat on economic performances: Synthetic control evidence from the 1958 Thai coup and the 1966 Indonesian coup
指導教授: 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
International Master's Program of Applied Economics and Social Development(IMES)
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 60
外文關鍵詞: coup d’etat, Indonesian politics
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202000777
相關次數: 點閱:118下載:43
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  • This thesis aims to assess economic performance after Sarit’s coup in 1958 and Suharto’s coup in 1966 by using the synthetic control method. The synthetic control extrapolates the trajectory of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s synthetic post-coup log GDP per capita with a weighted combination selected from the donor pool. The donor pool includes countries designated as ‘developing’ in the World Economic Survey 1963. Those developing countries must not have experienced a coup at least five years before and after Sarit’s and Suharto’s coups. The result found that the GDP per capita post-Sarit’s and post-Suharto coups increased significantly compared to the synthetic figures. In addition, this thesis also provides a theoretical explanation of the developmental state, explaining the driving forces of high economic growth in East Asia. Interestingly, Thailand and Indonesia also followed this pattern to thrive for higher economic growth. From the economic perspective, both governments have established departments to take care of the economy on the macro level, and to draft economic strategies. The post-coup government also initiated the Board of Investment in an effort to promote a friendly environment for foreign investors. In contrast, however, political suppression was widespread due to the governments’ control of labor unions that called for welfare and improved standards of living. This situation benefited capitalists, making it even easier for them to accumulate capital.

    1 Introduction 1
    2 Literature Review 4
    2.1 Regression analysis: The pervasive and familiar method 4
    2.2 The synthetic control: The frontier of comparative studies 7
    2.3 The Developmental State 8
    2.3.1 Property Rights Enforcement 8
    2.3.2 Political Institution 9
    2.3.3 The Business-Government Nexus 9
    2.3.4 The Labor Controls 9
    3 Historical Background 10
    4 The Political Situation 12
    4.1 Indonesia 12
    4.2 Thailand 13
    4.2.1 Thailand before the 1958 coup 13
    4.2.2 Why the 1958 Sarit coup is significant and unique 15
    5 Method 17
    5.1 Placebo study 18
    5.2 Inference 18
    5.3 Data Collection 19
    5.3.1 Dependent variable and Independent variables 20
    6 Result 21
    6.1 The 1958 Thai coup 21
    6.2 The 1965 Indonesian coup 22
    7 The economic outlook before the coup d’état 23
    8 Post-Coup Institutional Change 26
    8.1 Thrive for More Liberal Economy 26
    8.1.1 The triumph of technocracy 26
    8.1.2 The nexus of the elites’ network 28
    8.1.3 The promotion of investment 30
    8.1.4 Controlled politics 32
    9 Conclusion 33
    10 Appendices 36
    11 Timeline 57
    12 References 58

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