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研究生: 陳靖倫
Chen, Ching-Lun
論文名稱: 學術研究對於股票報酬可預測性之影響:以台灣股票市場為例
The Impact of Academic Research on the Predictability of Stock Returns in Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 鍾令德
口試委員: 徐政義
黃德源
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 40
中文關鍵詞: 因子投資發表效果統計偏誤
外文關鍵詞: Factor investing, Publication effect, Statistical biases
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  • 因子投資法讓投資人有系統地選擇投資組合,其建設方式既直接且透明度高,故日漸受到實務界及學界的青睞。然而過去的投資績效並不保證未來的收益,隨著數以百計的因子的出現,亦有諸多學者質疑因子在不同市場及時間的預測能力。本研究彙整36個台灣股票市場證實有效預測橫斷面報酬之財務特徵,透過回測以檢視特徵排序所建立之多空因子投資策略,並參考McLean and Pontiff(2016)的研究方法評估各因子在學術研究發表前、後的表現。在我們所檢視的36個因子中,僅在4個因子發現負的發表效果,可證因子之學術研究發表效果於台股、美股市場不盡相同。


    Factor investing gives investors a systematic approach to selecting investment portfolios, and its construction is intuitive and transparent. As a result, it becomes increasingly popular among practitioners and academics. However, past investment performance does not guarantee future returns. With the emergence of hundreds of factors, researchers are growingly concerned about the validity of factors across different markets and time periods. In this study, we re-examine 36 stock characteristics that are effective in predicting cross-sectional returns in the Taiwan stock market. Following McLean and Pontiff(2016), we first sort stocks by their characteristics to form longshort strategies, we then measure their performance before and after their academic research publications. It turns out that only 4 out of 36 factors exhibit negative publication effects, suggesting that the academic publications on factor investing impact the Taiwan and U.S. stock markets differently.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與動機 1
    第二節 研究目的 2
    第三節 研究架構 3
    第二章 文獻回顧 4
    第一節 因子投資之發展脈絡 4
    第二節 關於因子投資有效性的學術辯論 4
    第三節 投資因子之預測效力 6
    第四節 學術研究對於因子效力之影響 6
    第五節 台灣股票市場之因子投資相關研究 7
    第三章 研究資料與方法 8
    第一節 資料來源 8
    第二節 財務特徵說明 8
    第三節 投資組合建構及報酬計算方式 15
    第四節 研究發表對因子影響之評估方法 16
    第四章 研究結果與分析 18
    第一節 投資組合報酬率之變化 18
    第二節 因子研究發表之效果 23
    第五章 結論與建議 31
    第一節 結論 31
    第二節 限制與建議 32
    參考文獻 33
    附錄 39

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