本研究主要利用都市與區域經濟學中相當重要的經濟基礎分析與移轉份額分析這兩個理論來探討台北都會區的就業問題。前者是用以判斷基礎產業，後者在於瞭解就業的成長來源。本研究可分為兩大方向，一為使用動態方式來實證評估這兩種理論，一為援引國際貿易理論，來重新修正這兩種理論。

在實證部分，本研究利用共整合分析來估計台北都會區的基礎就業乘數，結果發現，就台北都會區而言，經濟基礎分析是一長期均衡模型，總基礎就業乘數為18.69，個別產業的基礎就業乘數以金融保險業為最大，高達40.06；在動態移轉份額分析方面，其不但可以反映出經濟結構的變化，還能觀察相關成長效果的時間趨勢。結果我們發現台北都會區的總就業人數成長較全國平均為高，但都會區內有許多就業成長性較低產業存在。利用迴歸分析也發現，國際貿易效果對於台北都會區製造業的就業成長，一直扮演重要角色。

在理論方面，由於都市與區域經濟學多假設沒有國際貿易，這對於小型開放經濟體系的我國而言是極不合理的。因此，本研究首先利用比較利益法則來檢驗傳統的區位商數，結果發現無論由區域間貿易或是國際貿易的角度來看，區位商數都需要作進一步的修正，才可以增加區位商數的合理性與實用性。此外，國際貿易對於就業成長具有相當重要的影響力，因此移轉份額分析方程式除了必須考量全國成長、產業組合、以及區域競爭效果以外，也應加入國際貿易效果。以台北都會區的就業資料驗證顯示，修正後的區位商數的基礎就業人數明顯高於傳統區位商數所計算的，國際貿易效果對於台北都會區的就業成長也一直具有重要的影響力。

This study focuses on economic base analysis and shift-share analysis to analyze the employment in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area. The former is to judge whether the certain industry is basic industry. The latter decomposes the employment change into different kinds of growth effects. The study includes two aspects of empirical and theoretical parts.

First, we apply cointegration analysis to estimate the basic employment multiplier. The results show that economic base analysis is a long-run equilibrium theory for Taipei metropolitan area and total basic multiplier is 18.69. Moreover, finance and insurance is the most important basic industry and its multiplier is up to 40.06. Second, the dynamic shift-share analysis is used to compute the employment growth sources in Taipei metropolitan area, then the regression analysis shows that international trade effect plays a critical roles for the employment growth of manufacturing in the Taipei metropolitan area.

The traditional urban and regional economics assumes that there is no international trade, this is unreasonable, especially for a small open economy, such as Taiwan. By the law of comparative advantage, we suggest that traditional location quotient should be revised through interregional trade and international trade. In addition, international trade has its contribution to the employment growth, thus we amend shift-share equation to add an international trade effect. From the employment data of Taipei metropolitan area, we obtain that revised location quotient is apparently different from the traditional one and international trade effect is always one of the main factors of employment growth.