| 研究生: |
馮冠群 Feng, Kuan-Chun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
可贖回CMS區間計息型商品之評價與實證分析: LIBOR與GARCH市場模型之比較 Pricing and Empirical Analysis of Callable Range Accrual Linked to CMS: Comparison of LIBOR and GARCH Market Models |
| 指導教授: |
薛慧敏
Hsueh, Hui-Min 林士貴 Lin, Shih-Kuei |
| 口試委員: |
陳亭甫
黃怡婷 林惠文 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年: | 2018 |
| 畢業學年度: | 106 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 48 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 固定期限交換利率 、對數常態遠期利率市場模型 、GARCH 波動度模型 、區間計息 、最小平方蒙地卡羅法 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | CMS, LFM, GARCH model, Range accrual, Least squares monte carlo method |
| DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6814/THE.NCCU.STAT.010.2018.B03 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:360 下載:15 |
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透過最小平方蒙地卡羅法以對數常態遠期利率(Lognormal Forward LIBOR Model, LFM)市場模型,及廣義自我回歸條件異質變異(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, GARCH) 波動度市場模型來評價可贖回區間計息(Range Accrual)固定期限交換利率(Constant Maturity Swap, CMS)的衍生性商品。在本研究中,由於在區間計息下無法推導出封閉解,以LFM 下的動態過程為基礎,模擬未來的市場LIBOR 利率及CMS 利率,以最小平方蒙地卡羅法評價商品。波動度估計採兩種方式,第一種以歷史資料估計,第二種將LFM 的遠期利率瞬間波動度的假設形式改以GARCH 波動度模型表示,將兩者CMS 模擬結果與真實市場價格做比較。實證結果顯示將LFM 的遠期利率瞬間波動度的假設形式改以GARCH 模型之CMS 模擬更貼近市場真實價格。
Through the least squares Monte Carlo method, Using the Lognormal Forward LIBOR Model (LFM) and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) market models to price the derivatives of the CMS (Constant Maturity Swap) Range Accrual. In this paper, since the closed form of solution can’t be derived under the range accrual, firstly we based on the dynamic process under LFM, the forward LIBOR interest rate and CMS interest rate are simulated, and the derivatives is evaluated by the least square Monte Carlo method. There are two ways to estimate the volatility. The first one is estimated by historical data. The second is to change the hypothetical form of LFM's forward rate instantaneous volatility to the
GARCH volatility model, and the two CMS simulation results are compared with the real market price. The empirical results show that the hypothetical form of LFM's forward interest rate instantaneous volatility which changed to the GARCH model, it’s CMS simulation is closer to the real market price.
第一章 續論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 1
第二章 相關文獻回顧 3
第一節 利率模型 3
第二節 LFM 模型 5
第三節 固定期限交換利率 6
第四節 GARCH 波動度模型7
第五節 LFM 結合GARCH 波動度模型 8
第三章 可贖回區間計息CMS衍生性商品評價9
第一節 遠期 LIBOR 9
第二節 交換利率13
第三節 固定期限交換利率 15
第四節 最小平方蒙地卡羅評價法18
第四章 模型參數估計 21
第一節 利率波動度結構21
第二節 相關係數估計 24
第三節 違約強度 25
第五章 實證分析27
第一節 區間計息 27
第二節 個案商品28
第六章 結論與建議 40
第一節 研究結論 40
第二節 研究建議 40
參考文獻 42
附錄 45
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