碳交易具成本有效性，已成為全球重要的減碳工具，然而，台灣受到國際政治現實無法參與《巴黎協定》第6條，將限制台灣減碳力與影響力。本研究建立台灣參與國際碳交易的理論模型，模擬不同國際碳價、減碳目標、抵換率與技術進步率等情境設定下，評估台灣參與國際碳交易的最適碳權抵換率，以及成本節省率。本研究透過三種不同減碳成本模型 (DICE Nordhaus模型、McKinsey & Company模型、及本研究的混合模型)，進行最適碳權抵換率與成本節省率的敏感度分析，確認評估結果的穩健性。評估結果顯示，台灣參與國際碳交易，具有顯著的成本有效性，然而，成本節省率則隨著不同的減碳成本模型，呈現差異性；最適國際碳權抵換率，則應隨著國際碳價提高及減碳目標趨嚴而提高，最適抵換率介於26%-53%。如果考慮技術進步率，則最適抵換比率將由53%下降至16% (2050)；據此，本研究進一步參考日本與新加坡經驗，提出台灣參與國際碳交易的「台灣減量機制」(Taiwan Crediting Mechanism, TCM)政策建議。

Carbon trading, with its demonstrated cost-effectiveness, has emerged as a pivotal global instrument for carbon reduction. However, Taiwan's inability to participate in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement due to international political realities constrains Taiwan's carbon reduction capacity and global influence. This study establishes theoretical models for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading, simulating various scenarios involving different international carbon prices, reduction targets, offset ratios, and technological progress rates to evaluate Taiwan's optimal carbon credit offset ratio and cost savings rate.
Through three distinct carbon reduction cost models—the DICE Nordhaus model, the McKinsey & Company model, and this study's hybrid model—sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of the assessment results. The evaluation findings demonstrate that Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading exhibits significant cost-effectiveness, though cost savings rates vary across different models. The optimal international carbon credit offset ratio should increase with rising international carbon prices and increasingly stringent reduction targets, ranging between 26% and 53%. When incorporating technological progress rates, the optimal offset ratio decreases from 53% to 16% by 2050.
Based on these findings, this study further examines the experiences of Japan and Singapore to propose the "Taiwan Crediting Mechanism (TCM)" as a policy recommendation for Taiwan's participation in international carbon trading.

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