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研究生: 陳柔妤
Chen, Rou-Yu
論文名稱: 資訊框架效應對投資風險承擔決策之影響—以過度自信為調節變數
The Effect of Information Framing on Investment Risk-Taking Decisions: Overconfidence as a Moderating Variable
指導教授: 顏錫銘
陳鴻毅
口試委員: 顏錫銘
邱健嘉
白佩玉
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程)
Master of Business Administration Program(MBA)
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 資訊框架效應過度自信投資風險承擔展望理論行為財務學
外文關鍵詞: framing effect, prospect theory, investment risk-taking, overconfidence, behavioral finance
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  • 本研究旨在探討資訊框架效應對投資風險承擔決策之影響,並檢驗過度自信是否調節資訊框架與風險承擔決策之間的關係。依據展望理論與行為財務學觀點,投資者面對正框架與負框架資訊時,可能因心理參考點不同而展現不同風險偏好;同時,過度自信亦可能使投資者高估自身判斷能力,進而提高風險承擔傾向。
    本研究採用問卷情境實驗法,以 20 至 40 歲之台灣投資者為研究對象,共取得 248 份有效樣本。研究採受試者間設計,將受試者隨機分派至正框架組與負框架組,並以迫選題與方案偏好程度量表作為雙重依變數衡量投資風險承擔決策。資料分析採用卡方檢定、二元邏輯斯迴歸、階層迴歸、PROCESS Macro
    Model 1 與 Johnson-Neyman 分析進行檢驗。
    研究結果顯示,資訊框架對投資風險承擔決策之主效果未達統計顯著,亦即負框架組並未較正框架組展現更高之風險承擔傾向,假說一未獲支持。其次,過度自信對投資風險承擔決策具有顯著正向影響;無論以迫選題或方案偏好程度量表衡量,過度自信程度較高者皆展現較高之風險承擔傾向,假說二獲得支持。最後,資訊框架與過度自信之交互作用項未達統計顯著,假說三未獲支持;惟 Johnson-Neyman 補充分析顯示,高過度自信區間中資訊框架對方案偏好程度呈現顯著負向條件效果,故本研究將其視為探索性發現。
    整體而言,本研究發現,在金額與機率資訊明確呈現的投資情境下,資訊框架效應對風險承擔決策之影響可能受到限制;相較之下,投資者自身之過度自信程度對風險承擔傾向具有較穩定的解釋力。實務上,本研究建議投資者教育與理財顧問服務應重視過度自信偏誤之辨識與矯正,並透過平衡式資訊揭露與風險提醒機制,協助投資者作出更審慎之投資決策。


    This study examines the effect of information framing on investment risk-taking decisions and investigates whether overconfidence moderates this relationship. Based on prospect theory and behavioral finance literature, this study proposes that individuals exposed to a negative frame will show a higher tendency to take risks than those exposed to a positive frame.
    A between-subjects experiment was conducted, and 248 valid responses were collected. Participants were randomly assigned to either a positive framing condition, in which investment outcomes were described as gains, or a negative framing condition, in which the same objective outcomes were described as opportunity losses relative to the highest possible outcome. Investment risk-taking was measured by both a forced-choice question and a continuous preference scale. Overconfidence was measured as overplacement, with demographic variables, investment experience, and financial knowledge included as control variables.
    The results show that information framing does not have a significant main effect on investment risk-taking decisions. However, overconfidence has a significant positive effect, indicating that individuals with higher overconfidence are more likely to prefer risky investment options. The moderating effect of overconfidence is not supported. Supplementary analyses further indicate that subjective loss feeling is negatively associated with risk-taking, suggesting that the opportunity-loss frame may not fully correspond to the typical loss domain proposed by prospect theory. This study highlights the boundary conditions of framing effects in investment contexts and confirms overconfidence as an important factor influencing investment risk taking.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與動機 1
    第二節 研究目的與問題 2
    第三節 研究範圍與限制 3
    第四節 論文架構 3
    第二章 文獻探討 4
    第一節 展望理論與風險決策 4
    第二節 資訊框架效應 5
    第三節 過度自信 7
    第四節 框架效應與過度自信的交互作用 10
    第五節 研究假說 11
    第三章 研究方法 15
    第一節 研究架構與研究流程 15
    第二節 研究設計 18
    第三節 研究樣本 19
    第四節 研究變數與操作性定義 19
    第五節 分析方法 24
    第四章 實驗結果與分析 27
    第一節 資料清理與有效樣本 27
    第二節 樣本敘述統計 27
    第三節 兩組樣本同質性檢定 29
    第四節 信度分析 30
    第五節 操弄確認 31
    第六節 假說實驗結果 32
    第五章 結論與建議 45
    第一節 研究結論 45
    第二節 實驗結果之投資與經濟意涵 46
    第三節 實務建議 47
    第四節 研究限制與未來研究方向 49
    參考文獻 53
    附錄 研究問卷 56

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