| 研究生: |
郭俊宏 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
NDF利差交易策略實證 FX Carry Trades Strategy:the Case of NDF currencies |
| 指導教授: | 張元晨 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 財務管理學系 Department of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2014 |
| 畢業學年度: | 102 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 40 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | NDF 、無本金交割遠期外匯 、受拋補利差 、利差交易 、交易策略 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:204 下載:28 |
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在本篇文章中我們希望能建構一個以NDF貨幣為主的利差交易最適交易策略,並將以往使UIP無法成立的各種因素利用羅吉斯迴歸模型及線性迴歸模型融合成一個平倉指標,用以適時地結清部位甚至反向操作,並審視各種變數進入平倉指標對於報酬的預測能力,以期此交易策略能夠達到更高的報酬表現。
而實證結果顯示反映資本控制程度的受拋補利差(Covered Interest Differential)與市場流動性風險指標之一的泰德價差(TED Spread)能有效捕捉重大虧損的發生,投資組合利差(Carry)對於報酬也有顯著影響但程度不如受拋補利差。此外也發現使用多頭策略(Long-Netural)相對於多空策略(Long-Short)能到更高的夏普值,而利用所選變數在每周針對逐一貨幣篩選也會比單純判斷每周是否進行利差交易得到更好的夏普值。
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究架構 2
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第三章 研究方法 9
第一節 變數說明 12
第一項 被解釋變數-利差交易投資組合報酬 12
第二項 解釋變數 13
第二節 資料來源 16
第四章 實證結果 18
第一節 羅吉斯迴歸模型 18
第一項 樣本內測試 23
第二節 線性迴歸模型 25
第一項 樣本內測試 26
第二項 樣本外測試 26
第二節 穩健性測試 29
第三節 分幣別篩選與敘述統計結果 30
第五章 結論及後續研究建議 33
第一節 研究結論 33
第二節 研究限制 34
第三節 後續研究建議 34
附件 35
參考文獻 37
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