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研究生: 官欣
Kuan, Hsin
論文名稱: 台灣期貨市場價量之因果關係
Causality between returns and traded volumes in Taiwan futures market
指導教授: 郭維裕
Kuo, Wei yu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 35
中文關鍵詞: 價量因果關係日內交易資料馬可夫鍊Granger因果關係測試
外文關鍵詞: causality, high frequency intraday data, Markov Chain, Granger causality test
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  • This paper follows Ghysels, Gourieroux, and Jasiak (1998), examines the causal relation between price and volume in Taiwan Futures Market. I use high frequency intraday data of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index in Taiwan Futures Exchange; and analyze the causality between returns and volume series, which are transformed into Markov chain, with Granger’s causal tests. I analyze the data with two different time category, trading time and calendar time. In our research we find out that Taiwan futures market has a bi-directional causality between price and volume in trading time analysis, as to the calendar time analysis, only price to volume unidirectional causality exists. Unlike the unidirectional causal relation that Ghysels, Gourieroux, and Jasiak (1998) observed in French security market.

    1. Introduction 4
    2. Methodology 8
    3. Data 12
    4. Empirical Results 14
    4.1 Analysis in Trading Time 14
    4.1.1 Univariate analysis for fixed price and volume thresholds 14
    4.1.2 Correlation analysis and state selection for return series 15
    4.1.3 Causality analysis and state selection for volume series 16
    4.2 Analysis in Calendar Time 18
    4.2.1 Univariate analysis for fixed price and volume thresholds 18
    4.2.2 Correlation analysis and state selection for return series 19
    4.2.3 Causality analysis and state selection for volume series 20
    5. Conclusion 22
    Reference 23
    Appendix 25

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