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研究生: 賴欣沅
Lai, Hsin Yuan
論文名稱: 以技術指標建構市場指標投資台灣股票市場
The Optimal Asset Allocation in Taiwan Stock Market: Using Technical Analysis as Market Indicator
指導教授: 黃泓智
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系
Department of Risk Management and Insurance
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 40
中文關鍵詞: 技術指標綜合信號指標資產配置Regular Vine Copula
外文關鍵詞: Technical Indicator, Combined Signal Approach, Asset Allocation, Regular Vine Copula
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  • 許多新興風險隨著金融市場的變化而產生,以致於發生許多大型金融災害造成許多金融產業蒙受鉅額損失。而於金融市場尋求利潤已是金融產業重要的一環,有鑑於此,本論文提出ㄧ套完整的資產配置流程,利用技術指標建構綜合信號指標作為市場指標再選擇投資資產並估計、模擬、最適化投資權重並投資,以達到規避大型金融事件風險並獲取超額利潤。本論文亦嘗試不同股票評分指標、股票資產模型、結構模型、投資組合大小等組合,以找出最適合台灣股票支股票評分指標、資產模型以及投資組合大小。
    本論文發現綜合信號指標作為市場指標可有效判讀金融事件的發生與結束時間,經由此指標判斷可獲得相當的超額利潤。本論文亦發現當投資組合為5支股票、資產模型為GJR GARCH(1,1)模型、相關結構型態為多元高斯Copula時可獲得超額利潤。


    第一章 、緒論 1
    第二章 、文獻回顧 3
    第一節 、技術指標文獻 3
    第二節 、財務報表及股票評分文獻 4
    第三節 、資產模型文獻 5
    第三章 、研究方法 8
    第一節 、前言 8
    第二節 、技術指標簡介及使用方法 8
    第三節 、資產選擇 13
    第四節 、資產模型 17
    第五節 、蒙地卡羅模擬與最適化目標函數 19
    第四章 、實驗結果 21
    第一節 、前言 21
    第二節 、不同門檻值基金淨值 21
    第三節 、不同股票評量指標基金淨值 29
    第四節 、不同資產模型基金淨值 30
    第五節 、不同投資組合大小基金淨值 31
    第六節 、不同相關結構基金淨值 32
    第五章 、結論及未來建議 34
    參考資料 35
    附錄一、圖形型態判斷方法 38
    附錄二、綜合信號最適化權重 40

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