| 研究生: |
黃奕銘 Huang, Yi-Ming |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
IFRS 17 下折現率內生化對合約服務邊際(CSM)與資產負債管理之影響 The Effects of Endogenous Discount Rates on Contractual Service Margin and Asset-Liability Management under IFRS 17 |
| 指導教授: |
張士傑
曾毓英 |
| 口試委員: |
張士傑
洪明欽 曾毓英 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系 Department of Risk Management and Insurance |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 72 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | IFRS17 、CSM 、折現率 、資產負債管理 、會計平滑 、監理資本 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | IFRS 17, CSM, Discount Rate, Asset-Liability Management, Accounting Smoothing, Solvency Regulation |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:15 下載:0 |
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本研究探討 IFRS 17 架構下合約服務邊際(CSM)折現率之經濟意涵與建構問題。相較於既有文獻多將折現率視為外生參數,本文主張折現率應內生於資產負債管理與風險評價框架中,並影響保險負債衡量與利潤釋放動態。本文建構市場一致性(market-consistent)折現率模型,參考加拿大精算學會(CIA)之 Hybrid Approach 作法,由參考投資組合之市場利差出發,扣除預期信用損失(ECL)與非預期信用損失(UCL)等與保險負債無關之風險成分,以推估非流動性貼水(IP),並透過 Smith-Wilson 方法進行利率期限結構之擬合與外推。本文並將最佳估計負債(BEL)與風險調整(RA)納入履約現金流量衡量架構,進一步分析折現率變動對 CSM、BEL、RA 與盈餘認列之影響。
數值結果顯示,折現率建構不僅影響負債評價水準,亦改變 CSM 釋放路徑與盈餘波動結構,呈現會計穩定性與經濟風險揭露間之權衡關係。特別是在信用風險與非流動性貼水不同組合下,CSM 對市場利率變動呈現非線性反應。本文進一步探討 IFRS 17 與風險資本制度之錯配問題,研究結果對保險公司資產配置、財務報導品質與監理政策設計具有實務意涵。
This study examines the construction and economic implications of discount rates for the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) under IFRS 17. Unlike prior studies that often treat discount rates as exogenous inputs, this paper endogenizes discount rates within an Asset-Liability Management and risk valuation framework. Based on the Hybrid Approach proposed by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), this study develops a market-consistent discount rate model by deriving the Illiquidity Premium (IP) from a reference portfolio after deducting Expected Credit Loss (ECL) and Unexpected Credit Loss (UCL). The resulting term structure is fitted and extrapolated using the Smith-Wilson method. Best Estimate Liability (BEL) and the Risk Adjustment (RA) are further incorporated into the fulfilment cash flow framework to analyze the effects of discount rate changes on CSM, liability valuation, and earnings recognition.
The numerical results show that discount rate construction affects liability measurement, CSM release patterns, and earnings volatility, revealing a trade-off between accounting stability and economic risk transparency. Under different credit risk adjustments and illiquidity premiums, CSM exhibits nonlinear responses to interest rate changes. The findings also highlight potential mismatches between IFRS 17 and risk-based capital frameworks, providing implications for insurers' asset allocation, financial reporting, and regulatory policy.
致謝 ii
中文摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景:IFRS 17 下折現率與 CSM 衡量之重要性 1
第二節 研究動機:折現率的核心議題 3
第三節 研究問題 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 IFRS 17 折現率建構之方法論基礎與爭議 7
第二節 CSM 之後續衡量與盈餘認列機制 11
第三節 折現率外生化假設之研究缺口與本研究貢獻 13
第三章 研究模型 15
第一節 前言與研究架構概述 15
第二節 參考投資組合之選擇與建構 17
第三節 信用風險剝離之方法論 20
第四節 利率期限結構的擬合:Smith-Wilson 模型 26
第五節 監理視角下的折現率建構:ICS 三桶法與 IFRS 17 之比較 29
第四章 數值分析 35
第一節 參考投資組合建構 35
第二節 信用風險參數驗證 37
第三節 實證數值分析:IFRS 17 折現率建構(以 Apple 為例) 39
第四節 PD 的插值與年化計算 39
第五節 信用成本扣除計算 40
第六節 投資組合平均 IP 之建構 41
第七節 折現率變動下 CSM 與保險財務損益之敏感度分析 43
第五章 結論 64
第一節 研究結論 64
第二節 研究貢獻與實務意涵 65
第三節 研究限制與後續研究建議 66
附錄 A 臺灣主要壽險公司 IFRS 17 接軌財務數據剖析 67
A.1 接軌影響數與淨值統整 67
A.2 個別公司數據剖析 68
參考文獻 70
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全文公開日期 2031/07/19