本研究以「選擇性信用管制政策對於房價、供給及貸款質量之影響」為主題，探討中央銀行各波信用管制政策對房價變動、房屋供給以及貸款質量之影響效果。研究變數主要以信義及國泰房價指數、建照核發數以及新增受管制貸款占新增房貸比率為主，並納入利率、M2貨供等宏觀經濟變數進行迴歸分析，以檢視不同波次政策之影響效果。實證結果顯示，在房價方面，政策對房價因區域性差異，僅有部分波次及部分區域有顯著效果，而對建照供給之影響則未達顯著水準，顯示短期內政策對抑制整體不動產價格及供給調整之效果有限。在貸款質量方面，第三波、第四波與第七波政策對受管制貸款比率具有顯著正向影響，其中又以第七波效果最為明顯，整體而言，本研究認為選擇性信用管制政策對穩定房市具有一定效果，但對房價抑制之影響仍存在限制，顯示單純依靠信用管制政策不足以全面抑制市場投資需求。未來政府除持續推動信用管制外，亦應搭配住宅供給政策與其他總體審慎措施，以提升穩定房市與降低金融風險之效果。

This study, themed "The Impact of Selective Credit Control Policies on Housing Prices, Supply, and Loan Quality," investigates the empirical effects of the Central Bank's regulatory waves on housing price fluctuations, housing supply, and loan quality. The primary research variables include the Sinyi and Cathay housing price indices, the number of building permits issued, and the ratio of new regulated loans to total new mortgage loans. Additionally, macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and M2 money supply are incorporated into the regression analysis to examine the specific impacts of different policy stages.
The empirical results indicate that, regarding housing prices, the policy effects exhibit regional heterogeneity; statistically significant impacts are confined to certain policy waves and specific geographic regions. Furthermore, the impact on building permit supply does not reach statistical significance, suggesting that the short-term efficacy of these policies in curbing overall real estate prices and adjusting market supply remains limited. In terms of loan quality, the third, fourth, and seventh waves of policies exert a significant positive impact on the ratio of regulated loans, with the seventh wave exhibiting the most pronounced effect.
In conclusion, this study argues that while selective credit control policies demonstrate a certain degree of efficacy in stabilizing the real estate market, their impact on suppressing housing prices remains constrained, underscoring that relying solely on credit controls is insufficient to fully curb market investment demand. Looking forward, the government should not only sustain credit control measures but also coordinate them with housing supply policies and other macroprudential measures to enhance the overall effectiveness of market stabilization and financial risk reduction.

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