在估計股票市場事前交易機率(Probability of Informed trading)時， Duarte 和 Young（2009）使用了三個雙變量卜瓦松混合模型，由於參數數量，股票買賣量巨大等問題，導致參數估計的結果不如預期。我們想到在樣本資料符合混合雙變數卜瓦松分配且參數很大時，若使用混合雙變數常態分配模型進行參數估計得到的估計結果，相較於使用混合雙變量卜瓦松分配來估計時，是否也能得到表現良好的結果？本篇論文通過模擬的方式對此問題進行進一步的探討。經過對模擬結果進行分析，我們發現隨著在卜瓦松分配參數增大，常態分配模型與卜瓦松分配模型的參數估計結果越來越接近。

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