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研究生: 劉育嘉
Liu, Yu-Chia
論文名稱: 臺灣股票報酬離散度與基金績效之研究
Return Dispersion and Active Fund Performance in Taiwan
指導教授: 鍾令德
口試委員: 潘振宇
傅浚映
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系
Department of International Business
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 42
中文關鍵詞: 共同基金報酬離散度主動型投資管理基金績效基金經理人
外文關鍵詞: Mutual Fund, Return Dispersion, Active Fund, Fund Performance, Fund Manager
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  • 本研究探討臺灣股票市場之橫斷面報酬離散度與主動型股票共同基金之超額報酬是否存在正向關係。研究資料取自臺灣經濟新報共同基金資料庫,樣本期間為 2005 年 9 月至 2025 年 9 月。本文以報酬離散度與基金主動程度進行雙重排序,並搭配投組層級迴歸與基金層級迴歸,檢驗較為主動管理的基金能否在個股表現分歧加劇時表現更佳。實證結果顯示,臺灣市場中的高報酬離散度月份之主動型基金績效相對較弱,雙重排序搭配投組層級與基金層級迴歸分析結果皆為一致,有別於過往在海外市場的研究發現。此一發現意味著,報酬離散度的經濟意涵會隨市場結構而改變。在臺灣,高報酬離散度與主動選股機會的關聯較低,反而比較能代表市場壓力、產業輪動與主動部位風險被放大的狀態。此一結果或與臺灣市場散戶交易占比較高、電子產業權重集中、基金持股相近,以及共同基金轉換成本較高等特徵有關。


    This study examines whether cross-sectional return dispersion is positively associated with the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) of actively managed equity mutual funds in Taiwan. Using monthly Taiwan Economic Journal mutual fund data from September 2005 to September 2025, this study combines double sorts on return dispersion and fund activeness with portfolio-level and fund-level regressions to test whether active funds' alphas are state-contingent. Empirical results show that months with higher return dispersion are associated with lower average alpha among more active funds, contrary to the stronger risk-adjusted performance documented in the foreign fund markets. Double sorts, portfolio-level regressions, and fund-level regressions all point to the same conclusion: less active funds in Taiwan performed relatively better when return dispersion was high. The evidence suggests that elevated return dispersion does not necessarily imply more room for active management in Taiwan. Instead, this measure reflects more about market stress, sector rotation, and amplified active-position risk. Such discrepancy may arise from Taiwan's high retail investor participation, concentrated industry weights, relatively homogeneous mutual fund holdings, and market frictions in fund turnover.

    中文摘要 i
    英文摘要 ii

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究背景與動機 1
    第二節 研究目的與貢獻 2

    第二章 文獻回顧與資料說明 5
    第一節 報酬離散度之文獻與建構 5
    第二節 基金主動程度之衡量 11
    第三節 條件式基金報酬之識別 12
    第四節 研究資料與基金樣本 14

    第三章 研究方法 19
    第一節 研究架構與實證策略 19
    第二節 投組排序方法 19
    第三節 迴歸分析設定 20
    第四節 主動/被動切換策略 20
    第五節 穩健性設計 21

    第四章 實證結果與分析 22
    第一節 雙重排序:市場相對超額報酬與 FFC 超額報酬 22
    第二節 投組波動補充 26
    第三節 指標迴歸與基金層級迴歸 26
    第四節 穩健性檢驗 28
    第五節 主動/被動切換策略 30
    第六節 綜合討論 31

    第五章 結論與建議 32
    第一節 研究結論 32
    第二節 研究意涵、限制與後續研究建議 33

    參考文獻 35

    附錄 38
    附錄 A:切換策略敏感性分析 38
    附錄 B:最主動基金之橫斷面輪廓 41

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