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研究生: 張耀洲
Chang, Yao-Chou
論文名稱: 擔保債權憑證之評價-BET、Copula與Factor Copula方法之比較與分析
指導教授: 廖四郎
江彌修
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
外文關鍵詞: BET
相關次數: 點閱:263下載:121
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  • 資產證券化源自1970年代,第一筆擔保債權憑證交易自1988年出現在美國,然後在歐美迅速發展,目前已成為重要的之債券市場。台灣金融產業發展正值轉型期,銀行除面對低利率帶來經營壓力之外,同時亦需規避評等較差之企業貸款的信用風險,而保險業者在低利率時代來臨卻無良好報酬之投資標的可供投資。因此,此環境乃為推動證券化之良好契機。自1997年發生東南亞金融危機,乃至1998年韓國的亞洲金融危機,造成許多跨國企業紛紛裁員、關廠、甚至倒閉,造成一連串的金融危機連鎖效應。因此,公司間或產業間之榮枯是相互關聯的,且均會受總體經濟因素所影響。是以,近年來除信用風險亦成為近年來財務領域上重要議題。理論或實證上,當多個標的資產之信用衍生性商品被加以開發,並用來管理信用風險的時候,需考慮多個標的資產間的違約相關性,方能準確地衡量信用風險。故在信用風險管理與信用衍生性商品的評價中,違約相關性的估計與考量顯得格外重要。結構式或縮減式模型在發展違約相關性的多變數模型中是困難的,因為其衍生性商品價值的理論推導繁複或其數值計算是相當費時。本文在多標的資產之信用風險評價模型中,透過適當個別資產之邊際違約機率與Copula函數之選擇,及其相關參數之估算,即可快速求算具違約相關性之多變數聯合機率函數,以利擔保債權憑證(CDO)之評價。因此,本文針對BET、Copula、Factor Copulas等三種方法與分析架構做一剖析,再以國內153家上市公司所發行無擔保債券作為連結標的之擔保債權憑證為例,進行模擬實證並分析結果。


    第一節 研究動機
    第二節 研究目的
    第三節 研究架構

    第二章 文獻回顧
    第一節 信用風險評價模式
    第二節 CDO評價模型之介紹
    第三節 擔保債權憑證(CDO)商品之介紹

    第三章 研究方法與模型設定
    第一節 BET方法
    第二節 Factor Copula方法
    第三節 Copula方法

    第四章 實證方法與結果分析
    第一節 資料選取與研究對象
    第二節 收益比較分析
    第三節 敏感度分析

    第一節 結論
    第二節 建議

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