本研究旨在探討地方社會福利政策差異是否影響臺灣人口遷移行為，並同時採用個體與總體模型。研究資料取自財政部財政資訊中心之行政資料，個體模型採兩階段估計方法。第一階段以二元邏輯斯迴歸模型分析戶長年齡、家庭規模、住宅擁有狀況與所得等家戶特性對遷移與跨縣市遷移決策之影響；第二階段將各鄉鎮市區的預測遷移機率納入雙因子固定效果模型，檢驗地區特性對遷移傾向之作用。總體模型使用2015年至2021年間臺灣本島349個鄉鎮市區的追蹤資料，分析所得水準、產業結構、教育與醫療資源、房屋稅稅負及人均社會福利支出等因素對遷移率的影響。結果顯示，家戶特徵顯著影響遷移行為；社會福利支出雖未形成典型的福利遷徙，但依然有助於穩定地方人口，而地區的經濟環境與教育資源亦為影響人口流動的重要因素。研究成果補足臺灣相關議題的實證缺口，並可作為地方政府制定福利與人口政策之參考。

This study examines whether regional differences in social welfare policies influence migration behavior in Taiwan, employing both individual- and aggregate-level analyses. The data are obtained from the administrative records of the Fiscal Information Agency, Ministry of Finance, and analyzed through a two-stage estimation approach. In the first stage, binary logistic regression models are used to explore how household characteristics—including the age of the household head, family size, homeownership status, and income—affect decisions to migrate and to move across counties. In the second stage, the predicted migration probabilities for each township or district are incorporated into a two-way fixed-effects model to assess the influence of local characteristics on migration tendencies. At the aggregate level, panel data covering 349 townships and districts on Taiwan’s main island from 2015 to 2021 are used to examine how income levels, industrial structure, education and healthcare resources, property tax burdens, and per capita social welfare expenditures affect migration rates. The results show that household characteristics significantly influence migration behavior. Although social welfare spending does not exhibit a typical “welfare magnet” effect, it helps stabilize local populations. Furthermore, regional economic conditions and educational resources are key determinants of population movement. This study fills an empirical gap in Taiwan’s migration research and provides valuable implications for local welfare and population policy design.

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