湄公河流域（Mekong River Basin, MRB）的水力發電開發近年來迅速擴張。寮國人民民主共和國（以下簡稱寮國）為推動其成為「東南亞蓄電池」（Battery of Southeast Asia）的國家發展策略，積極推展水力發電計畫，藉以吸引外國直接投資，並透過電力貿易創造出口收益。泰國已成為這些計畫最主要的投資者與購電方之一。

本研究探討泰寮兩國之間的跨境投資動態如何形塑水壩興建的結果，研究對象為位於寮國境內湄公河流域、以外國直接投資融資、並依購電協議（Power Purchase Agreements, PPAs）向泰國輸出電力的十五項水力發電計畫。儘管這些計畫在地理條件、開發商模式與法規程序上大致相當，其發展結果卻出現顯著分歧。

本文延伸「水壩政治經濟學」（Political Economy of Dams）分析架構。該架構將菁英利益、國家能力與融資管道等決定因素定位於築壩國內部；然而，由於寮國約有百分之九十至九十五的水力發電係供出口之用，本研究將上述決定因素重新定位至購電國，並指出跨境購電協議正是傳遞這些因素的關鍵機制。既有文獻多將投資者的投入承諾視為計畫得以完工的驅動力，本研究則進一步明確指出製造該承諾的政治機制。

本論文以巴萊（Pak Lay）與沙那坎（Sanakham）兩座水壩進行比較個案研究，二者分別代表泰國利害關係人參與程度的不同層次。研究發現，巴萊水壩透過合資結構形成泰方的深度參與，已簽署購電協議，並在面臨顯著反對聲浪的情況下仍持續推進；相對地，沙那坎水壩是唯一沒有泰國股權參與的計畫，目前仍處於停擺狀態——外界雖曾以地理與程序理由對其提出異議，但並無任何同等性質的異議曾使泰資計畫延宕。

其研究結論指出，泰國利害關係人的深度參與強化了政治經濟網絡，並藉由提升國家支持、融資管道與投資確定性而促進計畫的推進。上述發現顯示，跨境政治與經濟關係對於形塑寮國水力發電開發結果具有重要影響。

Hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) has expanded rapidly. As part of its strategy to become the “Battery of Southeast Asia,” the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos) has promoted hydropower projects to attract foreign direct investment and generate export revenues through electricity trade. Thailand has emerged as one of the largest investors in and purchasers of electricity from these projects. This study investigates how cross-border investment dynamics between Thailand and Laos shape hydropower dam construction outcomes, focusing on fifteen projects located in the Laos section of the MRB that are intended to export electricity to Thailand under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and financed through foreign direct investment. Although these projects share comparable geography, developer models and regulatory pathways, their outcomes divergent sharply. The study extends the Political Economy of Dams framework, which locates elites interests, state capacity and financial access within the dam-building state. Because roughtly 90 to 95 percent of Lao hydropower is generated for export, this study relocates those determinants to the purchasing state and identifies the cross-border PPA as the mechanism that transmits them. Where existing literature treats investor commitment as the driver of project completion, this study specifies the political mechanism that manufactures that commitment. The argument is illustrated through a comparative case study of the Pak Lay and Sanakham dams, which represent different levels of Thai stakeholder involvement. The findings show that Pak Lay Dam, characterized by intensive Thai participation through a joint-venture structure, secured a signed PPA and proceeded despite significant oppositions. In contrast, Sanakham Dam, the only project without Thai equity participation, remains suspended; geographic and procedural objections were raised against it, but no comparable objection has delayed a Thai-invested project. The study concludes that intensive involvement by Thai stakeholders strengthens political-economic networks that facilitate project advancement by enhancing state support, financial access, and investment certainty. These findings demonstrate the importance of cross-border political and economic relationships in shaping hydropower development outcomes in Laos.

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