當企業的經營面臨不確定的情況時，使用穩健原則固然是可靠的，但是公司如果過度的使用穩健原則來操縱財務報表，將使資產和盈餘嚴重低估和扭曲，因此反而會降低財務報表的可靠性以及攸關性。公司的財務報表是財務分析師預測的來源之一，故當公司的盈餘由於受到管理當局對會計保守程度之操縱而有較大波動幅度時，若分析師相信公司當期盈餘是對未來盈餘的無偏誤預測指標，則財務分析師將會被誤導。因此，公司的會計保守程度對分析師盈餘預測的誤差和不同分析師間對盈餘預測意見不一致之程度應該有重大的影響。
　　本文以民國90年至94年之上市公司為研究對象，經由迴歸模型來分析公司會計保守性與分析師盈餘預測誤差與盈餘預測分歧程度間之關係，以檢視財務分析師是否能察覺保守性會計對公司盈餘的影響而反映於其盈餘預測中。結果發現會計保守性對分析師盈餘預測屬性均有正向影響，表示財務分析師在預測公司未來盈餘時會對管理當局所選擇的會計保守程度加以評估，並考量管理當局利用會計保守性進行盈餘管理的情形，進而影響其對公司未來盈餘的預測。

Management may overuse accounting conservatism to manage the financial statements and undervalue assets and earnings and reduce the reliability and relevance of financial statements though conservatism is an increasing trend in accounting practice. The conservative information may lead analysts to biased forecast when a company’s earning has high volatility. Consequently, the extent of accounting conservatism should have significant effect on the analysts’ earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion.
This study examines the relationship of accounting conservatism and analysts’ annual earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion by using a sample of listed firms in Taiwan. The results show that accounting conservatism has a positive relationship with the analyst earnings forecast errors and forecast dispersion. It implies that financial analysts may evaluate the extent of accounting conservatism and make adjustment in earnings forecast.

中文部分：
1. 后祥雯，2004，證券分析師在財務預測資訊中所應扮演的積極角色與功能發揮，證券櫃檯月刊，第97期(7月)：34-47。
2. 汪健全，1993，臺灣地區影響財務分析師盈餘預估準確性因素之實證研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文。
3. 吳建輝，2001，券商分析師盈餘預測之績效評估，國立台北大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
4. 施岑佩，1996，盈餘可預測性與財務分析師之預測偏差性研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
5. 范玥琪，1998，財務預測誤差決定性因素之研究，國立彰化師範大學商業教育學研究所未出版碩士論文。
6. 馬鳳禧，2003，會計保守性對盈餘品質之影響及與股票報酬之關聯性，國立台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
7. 許秀賓，1991，財務分析師盈餘預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
8. 陳隆麒，2004，當代財務管理，第二版，華泰文化出版。
9. 張窈菱，2004，年報揭露程度與分析師盈餘預測關係之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
10. 曾祥琳，1989，每季盈餘公告對股票成交量影響之研究，國立成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
11. 劉尹玉，2004，企業自願性非盈餘資訊揭露對分析師預測行為之影響，淡江大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
12. 劉正田，2001，研發支出資本化之會計基礎股票評價，會計評論，第33期(7月)：1-26。
13. 劉正田，2002，無形資產、成長機會與股票報酬關係之研究，會計評論，第35期(7月)：1-29。
14. 鄭偉銘，2001，管理當局與財務分析師盈餘預測能力之實證研究，國立東華大學企業管理學研究所未出版碩士論文。
15. 鄭慧文，1999，季盈餘宣告對股價之影響，中原大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文。
16. 薛敏正、林嬋娟、洪櫻芬，2002，盈餘管理偵測模式比較研究-以國內財務困難公司為例，未出版手稿。

英文部份：
1. Abarbanell, J. 1991. Do analysts’ earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes? Journal of Accounting and Economics 14 (June): 147-165.
2. _____ , and V. Bernard. 1992. Test of analysts’ overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. Journal of Finance 47 (July): 1181-1207.
3. Ahmed, A. S., B. K. Billings, R. M. Morton and M. S. Harris. 2002. The role of accounting conservatism in mitigating bondholder -shareholder conflicts over dividend policy and in reducing debt costs. Accounting Review 77 (October): 867-890.
4. Barron, O. E., C. O. Kile, and T. B. O’Keefe. 1999. MD&A quality as measured by the SEC and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (Spring): 75-109.
5. Basi, B. A., K. J. Carey, and R. D. Twark. 1976. A comparison of the accuracy of corporate and security analysts’ forecasts of earnings. The Accounting Review 51 (April): 244-54.
6. Basu, S. 1997. The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economic 24 (December): 3-37.
7. Beaver, W. H. 1998. Financial Reporting: an Accounting Revolution. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
8. ______, and S. G. Ryan. 2000. Biases and lags in book value and their effects on the ability of the book-to-market ratio to predict book return on equity. Journal of Accounting Research 38 (Spring): 127 -148.
9. Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting & Economics 11 (September): 255-274.
10. Bliss, D. 1924. Management Through Accounts. New York, NY: The Ronald Press Co.
11. Bradshaw, M. T., S. A. Richardson, and R. G. Sloan. 2001. Do analysts and auditors use information in accruals? Journal of Accounting Research 39 (June): 45-74.
12. Brown, L., P. Griffin, R. Hagerman, and M. Zmijewski. 1987. Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 9 (April): 61-87.
13. Chang, J. J., T. Khanna, and K. G. Palepu. 2000. Analyst activity around the world. Working paper, Harvard University.
14. Das S., C. Levine and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73 (April): 277-294.
15. DeFond, M.L., and J. Jiambalvo. 1994. Debt covenant violation and　manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics 17 (January): 145-176.
16. Demski, J. 1993. Endogenous systematic bias in accounting valuation. American Accounting Association Meetings. San Francisco.
17. Duru, A., and D. M. Reeb. 2002. International diversification and analysts' forecast accuracy and bias. The Accounting Review 77 (April): 415-433.
18. Easterwood, J. C., and S. R. Nutt. 1999. Inefficiency in analysts’ earnings forecasts: systematic misreaction or systematic optimism? The Journal of Finance 5 (October): 1777-1797.
19. Elgers, P. T., and M. H. Lo. 1994. Reduction in analyst’ annual earnings forecast errors using information in prior earnings and security returns. Journal of Accounting Research 32 (Autumn):290-303.
20. Feltham, G. A., and J. A. Ohlson. 1995. Valuation and clean surplus accounting for operating and financial activities. Contemporary Accounting Research 11 (Spring): 689-731.
21. Foster, G., C. Olsen, and T. Shevlin. 1984. Earnings releases, anomalies, and the behavior of security returns. The Accounting Review 59 (October): 574-603.
22. Frankel, R. and C. Lee. 1998. Accounting valuation, market expectation and cross-sectional stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25 (June): 283-319.
23. Fried D., and D. Givoly. 1982. Financial analysts’ forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 4 (October): 85-107.
24. Givoly, D. and C. Hayn. 2000. The changing time-series properties of earnings, cash flows and accruals: Has financial reporting become more conservative？Journal of Accounting & Economics 29 (June): 287-320.
25. Gujarati, D. N. 2005. Basic Econometrics. New Youk, NY: McGraw-Hill.
26. Healy, P., and K. Palepu. 2001. Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (September): 405-440.
27. Higgins, H. N. 2002. The Impact of Business Cycles on Analyst Earnings Forecasts. Working paper, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Mass.
28. Hope, Ole-Kristian. 2003a. Accounting policy disclosures and analysts’ forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 20 (Summer): 295-321.
29. ______. 2003b. Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analysts’ forecast accuracy: An international study. Journal of Accounting Research 41(May): 235-272.
30. Huberts L., and R. Fuller. 1995. Predictability bias in the U.S. equity market. Financial Analysts Journal 51 (March-April): 12-28.
31. Keane, M., D. Runkle. 1998. Are financial analysts’ forecasts of corporate profits rational? Journal of Political Economy 106 (August): 768-805.
32. Kothari, S. P., T. Lys, C. Smith, and R. L. Watts. 1989. Auditor liability and information disclosure. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 4 (Fall): 307-339.
33. ______. 2001. Capital market research in accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (September): 105-231.
34. Kross B. R., and D. Schroeder. 1990. Earnings expectation: The analysts’ information advantage. The Accounting Review 65 (April): 461-476.
35. Lang, M. and R. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71 (October):467-492.
36. Leftwich, R. 1995. The agenda of the financial accounting standards board. Working paper, University of Chicago (November).
37. Lim, T. 2001. Rationality and analysts’ forecast bias. The Journal of Finance 56 (February): 369-385.
38. Lys, T., and L. Soo. 1995. Analysts’ forecast precision as a response to competition. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance 10 (Fall): 751-765.
39. O’Brien, P. 1988. Analysts’ forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10 (January): 53-83.
40. Parkash, M., D. S. Dhaliwal, and W. K. Salatka. 1995. How certain firm-specific characteristics affect the accuracy and dispersion of analysts’ forecasts a latent variables approach. Journal of Business Research 34 (November): 161-169.
41. Penman, S. H., and X. J. Zhang. 2002. Accounting conservatism, the quality of earnings, and stock returns. The Accounting Review 77 (April): 237-264.
42. Schipper, K. 1991. Analysts’ forecasts. Accounting Horizons 5 (December): 105-121.
43. Shackelford, D.A. 2001. Empirical tax research in accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (September): 321-387.
44. Das, S., C. B. Levine, and K. Sivaramakrishnan. 1998. Earnings predictability and bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review 73 (April): 277-294.
45. Staubus, G. 1985. An induced theory of accounting measurement. The Accounting Review 55 (January): 53-75.
46. Stober, T. 1992. Summary finacial statement measures and analysis’ forecasts of Earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics 15 (June): 347-372.
47. Teoh, S., and T. Wong. 2002. Why new issues and high-accrual firms underperform: The role of analysts’ credulity. The Review of Financial Studies 15 (Summer): 869-900.
48. Watts, R. L., and J. Zimmerman. 1986. Positive Accounting Theory. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall.
49. ______, and R.W. Holthausen. 2001. The relevance of the value relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (September): 3-75.
50. ______. 2003a. Conservatism in accounting part I: Explanations and Implications. Accounting Horizons 17 (September): 207-221.
51. ______. 2003b. Conservatism in accounting part II: Evidence and research opportunities. Accounting Horizons 17 (December): 287-301.
52. Wiedman, C. 1996. The relevance of characteristics of information environment in the selection of a proxy for the market’s expectations for earnings: An extension of Brown, Richardson, and Schwager (1987). Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Autumn): 313-324.
53. Yaw, M. M., X. Song and S. M. Ho. 2004. The effect of conservatism on analysts’ annual earnings forecast accuracy and dispersion. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 19 (Spring): 159-183.
54. Zhang, X., 2000. Conservative accounting and equity valuatuion. Journal of Accounting and Economics 29 (February): 125-149.