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| 研究生： |
林季陽 Lin,Chi-Yang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
Strategic Trade Policy and Exchange Rate Subsidies: A Study of American Auto Markets |
| 指導教授： |
張元晨
Chang,Yuanchen 溫偉任 Wen,Wei-Jen |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 財務管理學系 Department of Finance |
| 論文出版年： | 2005 |
| 畢業學年度： | 94 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 56 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 外匯干預 、汽車業 、匯率預期 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | peso problem |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：211 下載：33 |
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Can intervention by the Bank of Japan on the yen/dollar rates be used as a strategic policy to promote Japanese exports to the U.S. markets？ We develop theoretical models based on strategic trade policy literature to explain possible impacts on U.S. automobiles. During the last decade, the changes of yen/dollar rates have coincided with dramatic market-share gains by Japanese automakers in the U.S. market. In the meantime, intervention by the Bank of Japan on the yen/dollar market has reached a record high. Our models assume interventions have two channels to influence U.S./Japan trade. First, we hypothesize that official currency manipulation by the Bank of Japan was implemented as a means to subsidize Japanese. The second channel resulted from the relationship between the expectation of an unavoidable foreign exchange rate appreciation and automobile purchase behavior of U.S. consumers. We assembles the famous “peso problem” in international finance. By preventing the prompt appreciation of JPY using intervention strategy, we argue that intervention by the Bank of Japan create a notion of unavoidable appreciation of JPY rate. This prompts U.S. consumers to purchase cars earlier.
We explore the effects of intervention of Bank of Japan on the changes of sale volume and market shares of U.S. and Japan automakers and the results show that the sale volume and market share of American automakers decrease while these of Japanese automakers increase. Empirical results also indicate that U.S. consumers tend to purchase more Japanese automobiles when the Yen’s appreciation is withheld temporary level they have expected. After comparisons, we conclude that interventions by the Bank of Japan affect American automakers through cost disadvantage and Japanese automakers through another channel. Results also imply that the effects of intervention on Japan/U.S. trade lie more through the channel of cost subsidy.
Abstract Ⅴ
List of Figures Ⅵ
List of Tables Ⅶ
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1. Motivations of the study 1
1.2. Objectives of the study 3
1.3. Chapter outlines 4
Chapter 2. Literature Review 5
2.1. International trade relationship and history between Japan and the America. 5
2.1.1. The history about trade history between Japan and the United Stated. 5
2.1.2. Industry Structure in the United States and Japan 6
2.2. Exchange rate pass-through 7
2.3. Strategic trade policy 9
2.3.1. Definition and content of strategic trade policy 9
2.3.2. Strategic trade policy and Japan 10
2.3.3. Exchange Rate Intervention as a strategic trade policy tool 11
2.4. Automobile consumption behavior 13
2.5. Peso problem hypothesis 13
2.5.1. Definition of the “peso problem” 13
2.5.2. Major applications of the “peso problem” 14
2.6. Exchange rate expectation 15
Chapter 3 Research Methodology and Data Description 16
3.1. Methodology for the impact of official exchange rate intervention on U.S. auto sales 17
3.1.1. Model framework 17
3.1.2. Cournot-Nash equilibrium and comparative statics 20
3.2. Methodology for the impact of expectation of exchange rate 22
3.2.1. Model framework 22
3.2.2. Cournot-Nash equilibrium and comparative statics 23
3.3. Hypotheses 25
3.4. Data Description 25
3.4.1. Data of Automobile sales in the U.S. market 27
3.4.2. Data of Macroeconomic variables 28
Chapter 4 Empirical Results of impacts of official intervention on the auto sales 30
4.1. The Inverse Demand Function and Substitution Relationship 30
4.2. Impact of Official Intervention on the sales of Automakers 32
4.3. Impact of Official Intervention on the market shares of Automakers 35
Chapter 5 Empirical Results of impacts of exchange rate expectation on auto sales 37
5.1. The Adjusted Inverse Demand Function 37
5.2. Impact of Exchage Rate Expectation to the Sales 39
5.3. Comparison of the Two Channels of impacts of Intervention on Sales 42
Chapter 6 Summary and Conclusions 45
6.1. Summary of This Study 45
6.2. Suggestions for Future Research 46
Appendices 47
Appendix A. Descriptive statistics and figures of data 47
Appendix B. Unit root test 48
Appendix C. Proof in Section 3.3 and 3.3 49
Appendix C.1 The value of determinant D 49
Appendix C.2 The proof of equation (6), (6’) and (6’’) 49
Appendix C.3 The proof of equation (11), (11’) and (11’’) 50
Appendix D. Proof in Section 3.3 and 3.3 51
Bibliography 53
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