本研究以天心坊湯包加盟總部為個案，探討餐飲連鎖在加盟展店持續成長下，冷鏈倉儲與配送系統之承載能力、瓶頸定位與升級決策。隨著加盟店數快速增加，冷鏈倉配由原本之支援性功能，逐漸轉變為影響展店速度與營運穩定的重要基礎；當配送延遲、退冰或供應中斷發生時，將直接影響門店銷售與品牌信任。

本研究採個案研究法，並依循「治理模式選擇—預期需求推估—解決方案評估」之分析架構，結合交易成本理論（TCE）、限制理論（TOC）與資本預算理論進行分析。首先，透過交易成本理論說明個案公司於不同區域與發展階段之配送治理模式選擇；其次，考量未來展店需求之結構性不確定性，運用期望值法將悲觀估計、最可能估計與樂觀估計三種未來需求情境以主觀機率加權，並於各情境下進一步拆分北倉與南倉之負責門店數，推估雙倉系統於 100 間店規模下之預期需求分布，再運用限制理論辨識預期需求下之主要承載瓶頸；最後，針對該瓶頸設計替代解決方案，透過資本預算工具進行純成本面 PV of Cost 比較，據以選定最適方案並推算投入時點。

研究結果顯示，於加盟規模成長至 100 間店之預期分布下，北倉預期負責約 47 間、南倉預期負責約 53 間，主要承載瓶頸落於北區配送，負荷率達 122.5%，為現行配置完全無法支撐之關鍵環節，亦為升級決策之首要對象。針對此一瓶頸，本研究比較「北倉直接升級」與「南倉北送（台中路線轉移）」兩項替代方案；純成本面 PV of Cost 比較顯示，北倉直接升級方案較具財務優勢，且於實務面之長途駕駛工時、跨區協調複雜度與後續擴充空間等考量上亦較為穩健，為解除北區瓶頸之最適升級方向。投入時點方面，依北區配送負荷率之逐年推估，宜於負荷率達 90% 即第 1 年末啟動升級準備、第 2 年初正式上線，方能於負荷率超過 100% 之前完成銜接。

本研究對個案公司提出三項管理建議：（1）採行北倉擴容方案並提前布局資金準備；（2）以負荷率作為升級觸發指標；（3）將展店地理分布納入定期監控以動態調整投資決策。本研究可補充既有餐飲加盟研究偏重前端展店之不足，從後端供應鏈角度提出系統性分析，並提供餐飲連鎖企業於擴張過程中之冷鏈倉配升級決策參考。

This study takes Tian Xin Fang Xiaolongbao as a case to examine the capacity, bottleneck identification, and upgrade decisions of cold-chain warehousing and distribution systems under continuous restaurant franchise expansion. As franchise stores increase rapidly, cold-chain logistics evolves from a supporting function into a critical infrastructure affecting expansion speed and operational stability.

This research adopts a case study approach and integrates Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), Theory of Constraints (TOC), and Capital Budgeting. TCE is applied to explain the governance evolution of logistics operations. The Expected Value Method is then applied to weight three demand scenarios—pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic—by subjective probabilities, with the Northern and Southern warehouse store counts further decomposed under each scenario to derive the expected demand distribution between the two warehouses at the 100-store scale. TOC identifies the primary bottleneck, and a cost-side present value of cost comparison evaluates alternative solutions.

The findings indicate that, under the expected distribution, the Northern warehouse will serve approximately 47 stores and the Southern warehouse 53 stores. The primary bottleneck lies in Northern last-mile distribution, with a utilization rate of 122.5%—the priority target for upgrade. Between the two alternatives—direct expansion of the Northern warehouse versus reallocation of the Taichung route to the Southern warehouse—the Northern expansion proves more favorable both financially and practically. The optimal launch timing is the beginning of Year 2, when Northern utilization is projected to exceed 100%.

This study offers three managerial recommendations: (1) adopt the Northern warehouse expansion with advance funding preparation; (2) use the utilization rate as the upgrade trigger; and (3) incorporate store distribution into periodic monitoring for dynamic adjustment. The study contributes to the literature by providing a systematic framework on backend supply chain capabilities in restaurant franchising.

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