本研究探討官方發展援助（Official Development Assistance, ODA）如何影響撒哈拉以南非洲之經濟成長，除關注援助規模，也進一步納入援助配置集中度與援助波動性之影響。本文使用2016年至2023年間33個撒哈拉以南非洲國家的平衡追蹤資料，並以納入年份效果與國家層級叢聚標準誤之最小平方法與固定效果模型作為主要估計模型，並使用隨機效果模型作為穩健性檢驗。其中援助配置集中度係以赫芬達爾—赫希曼指數（Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, HHI）衡量，非預期援助波動性則以ODA絕對衝擊衡量，該指標係由實際援助流量偏離預期援助流量之程度所推導。
研究結果顯示，在主要模型設定中，ODA規模與人均GDP成長之間並未呈現統計上穩健的直接關聯。在合併最小平方法模型中，援助配置集中度與經濟成長呈負向關聯，表示援助配置結構可能影響經濟表現。然而，此一關係在固定效果模型中轉弱，顯示該效果可能部分反映國家之間的差異，而非各國內部短期變動所造成。另一方面，以ODA絕對衝擊衡量之非預期援助波動性，在合併最小平方法、固定效果與隨機效果模型中皆與經濟成長呈現顯著負向關係。此結果說明，援助可預測性可能是影響援助成效的重要條件。
整體而言，本研究支持以結構性觀點理解援助與經濟成長之關係。研究結果指出，在撒哈拉以南非洲，援助成效並非僅取決於援助金額的多寡，而更取決於援助如何配置以及其是否具備可預測性。本文透過同時考量援助規模、配置集中度與非預期波動性，補充了援助成效相關文獻對ODA與經濟成長關係之討論。

This study examines whether official development assistance (ODA) matters for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing not only on aid volume but also on aid allocation concentration and aid volatility. Using a balanced panel of 33 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2016 to 2023, the study estimates pooled OLS and fixed-effects models with year effects and country-clustered standard errors. Random-effects models are also used as robustness checks. Aid allocation concentration is measured using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), constructed from selected development-relevant aid sectors. Unexpected aid volatility is measured through absolute ODA shocks, derived from deviations in aid flows.
The findings show that aggregate ODA volume does not have a statistically robust direct association with GDP per capita growth across the main specifications. In the pooled OLS models, aid allocation concentration is negatively associated with growth, indicating that the structure of aid distribution may impact economic performance. However, this relationship becomes weaker in the fixed-effects models, indicating that the effect may partly reflect differences across countries rather than short-run changes within countries. Unexpected aid volatility, as measured by absolute ODA shocks, is negatively and significantly associated with growth across pooled OLS, fixed-effects, and random-effects specifications. This suggests that aid stability may be an important condition for aid effectiveness.
Overall, the study supports a structural interpretation of the aid-growth relationship. The results suggest that aid effectiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa depends less on the amount of aid alone and more on how aid is allocated and how predictable it is. These findings contribute to the aid-effectiveness literature by showing that aid volume, allocation concentration, and unexpected volatility should be considered together when evaluating the relationship between ODA and economic growth.

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