隨著大國地緣政治角力日趨激烈、全球供應鏈加速碎片化，地緣政治不確定性如何影響企業創新已成為學術界與實務界亟待釐清的核心議題。現有研究多採用國家層次的總體地緣政治風險（GPR）指標，所得實證結果分歧，使得政治風險傳遞至個別企業的確切路徑仍懸而未決。本研究提出供應鏈傳遞視角：依據各企業主要銷售目的地，將Caldara與Iacoviello（2022）建構之GPR指數對應至個別企業，形成企業特定的客戶誘發地緣政治風險曝露指標，從而捕捉總體地緣政治衝擊傳遞至企業層次創新決策的管道。本研究以臺灣科技產業廠商的追蹤資料進行實證分析，並以制度理論與資源依賴理論為基礎，發展並檢驗五項研究假說。
實證結果有五項主要發現。第一，客戶誘發的地緣政治風險對企業創新產出具有顯著正向影響：維繫全球供應鏈成員資格的生存壓力所產生的制度性強制力，足以壓過原本支持延遲研發投入的財務約束效應，促使企業加速構建自主技術能力。第二，上述正向效應集中於製造業廠商，服務業廠商則呈現負向效果，反映出因製造業深度嵌入實體供應鏈的結構特性，使其所承受的制度生存壓力遠高於內銷為主的服務企業。第三，政府持股對地緣政治風險與創新的正向關係具有強化作用：一方面，國家資源緩衝機制舒緩了廠商所面臨的融資約束；另一方面，政府股東強化了在地緣政治壓力升高時持續投入技術研發的國家戰略，雙重機制共同放大了創新回應強度。第四，外資機構持股則減弱此一正向關係：外資股東所具備的跨國治理監督能力，使管理層得以主動預判並管理地緣政治風險，而非被動回應衝擊，從而降低了被動式創新加速的急迫性。第五，執行長的海外經歷同樣減弱上述關係：具備國際背景的高階主管對地緣政治風險擁有更強的預判與管理能力，能在曝險轉化為實際營運危機之前預先因應，進而降低企業創新決策對地緣政治風險波動的敏感度。
本研究從理論上整合制度理論與資源依賴理論，解析地緣政治風險在供應鏈傳導情境下如何重構廠商創新決策，並實證確認治理架構的調節機制，為地緣政治風險與企業創新的跨理論整合研究提供新的實證依據與方法論基礎。

As geopolitical rivalries intensify and global supply chains grow increasingly fragmented, understanding how political uncertainty shapes corporate innovation has become a critical question for both researchers and managers. Existing studies predominantly adopt aggregate country-level geopolitical risk (GPR) measures and yield conflicting findings, leaving the precise mechanism through which political uncertainty reaches individual firms unresolved. This study advances a supply-chain transmission perspective: using a firm-specific, customer-induced GPR measure constructed by mapping the Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) GPR Index to each firm's primary sales destinations, it captures the direct channel through which macro-level geopolitical shocks are transmitted to firm-level innovation decisions. The empirical analysis employs panel data from Taiwanese technology firms and draws on Institutional Theory and Resource Dependence Theory to develop and test five hypotheses.
The results yield five principal findings. First, customer-induced GPR exerts a positive and significant effect on firm innovation output: the institutional coercive pressure to build technological capabilities—driven by the survival imperative of maintaining global supply chain membership—dominates the financial constraint effects that would otherwise argue for R&D deferral. Second, this positive effect is significantly stronger in manufacturing technology firms than in service-oriented counterparts, reflecting the deeper physical supply chain dependence that makes institutional survival pressure most acute in capital-intensive production sectors. Third, government ownership amplifies the GPR–innovation relationship by simultaneously providing state resource buffers that relieve financing constraints and reinforcing the national strategic mandate for continued technological investment under geopolitical stress. Fourth, foreign institutional ownership attenuates the relationship, as the cross-country monitoring capabilities of foreign investors enable management teams to approach geopolitical risk proactively rather than reactively, reducing the urgency that drives innovation acceleration. Fifth, CEO overseas experience similarly attenuates the relationship, because internationally experienced executives develop superior cognitive capacity to anticipate and pre-manage geopolitical exposure before it crystallizes into operational crises.
This study contributes to the literature by resolving the theoretical ambiguity in the GPR–innovation relationship through a supply chain channel perspective, integrating Institutional Theory and Resource Dependence Theory to explain both the direction and the governance-conditioned heterogeneity of the effect, and establishing firm-specific customer-induced GPR measurement as a methodologically superior approach to studying how geopolitical pressure shapes corporate strategic behavior.

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