本研究探討 1995 年至 2022 年間，匯率變動對台灣製造業出口的影響。延續跨國文獻之全球價值鏈框架，本研究採用總出口附加價值分解法，將台灣總出口拆解為十六項項附加價值成分，並探討台灣產業特性。
實證結果顯示，復進口國內附加價值與雙邊匯率變動的交互項顯著為正，與跨國文獻結果方向相反，顯示台灣的復進口國內附加價值放大而非抑制匯率彈性。此一結果可能源自台灣特殊的全球價值鏈結構——台灣製造業的外國附加價值在產業與目的國間之變異相對有限，且外國附加價值與雙邊匯率的交互項在納入固定效果後未呈現顯著結果，顯示跨國研究所強調的進口投入成本抵銷力量在台灣相對薄弱。在此情況下，復進口國內附加價值對匯率彈性的正向調節效果較不易受到遮蔽，因而在本文樣本中更為明顯。本文之發現補充了現有全球價值鏈文獻在單一國家視角下的不足，並為政策制定者在評估匯率波動對台灣出口的衝擊時，提供更精確的產業異質性參考。

This study examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Taiwan’s manufacturing exports from 1995 to 2022. Building on the global value chain (GVC) framework adopted in the cross-country literature, this study applies a value-added decomposition of gross exports, decomposing Taiwan’s gross exports into 16 value-added components to investigate the characteristics of
Taiwan’s industries.
The empirical results show that the interaction term between returned domestic value added (RDV) and changes in the bilateral exchange rate (∆exr)
is significantly positive. This finding is opposite in direction to those reported in the cross-country literature, indicating that RDV amplifies, rather than dampens, exchange rate elasticity in Taiwan. This result may arise from Taiwan’s distinctive GVC structure. The variation in foreign value added (FV) across industries and destination countries is relatively limited in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector. Moreover, the interaction between FV and the bilateral exchange rate is not statistically significant after fixed effects are included, suggesting that the offsetting effect of imported input costs emphasized in cross-country studies is relatively weak in Taiwan. Under these circumstances, the positive moderating effect of RDV on exchange rate elasticity is less likely to be obscured and is therefore more pronounced in the sample examined in this study. These findings complement the existing GVC literature by providing evidence from a single-country perspective and offer policymakers a more precise understanding of industry heterogeneity when assessing the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Taiwan’s exports.

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