2022年起全球進入升息循環，市場利率快速上升，台灣壽險業亦面臨解約給付增加與資金流動變化等經營挑戰。特別是在市場利率與保單宣告利率差距擴大之情況下，可能提高保戶調整資產配置與解約行為之意願，進而影響壽險公司之資產負債管理與現金流穩定性。此外，在國際財務報導準則第17號保險合約（International Financial Reporting Standard 17, IFRS 17）與台灣保險資本標準制度（Taiwan Insurance Capital Standard, TIS）接軌背景下，壽險公司對流動性管理與資本品質之要求亦逐漸提升。
本研究以台灣六大壽險公司為研究對象，觀察期間為2020年1月至2025年12月，共計432筆月資料樣本，探討升息環境下影響壽險業解約給付占總保費收入比率之因素。研究變數包括利差、銀行保險通路占比、利率變動型商品占比，以及美元兌台幣匯率變動率，並分別建立台幣實證模型與美元實證模型，採用 Pooled OLS 模型進行實證分析。
研究結果顯示，市場利率與保單宣告利率差距擴大時，保戶解約行為與資金流動現象亦較為明顯，其中美元商品對利率變動之敏感程度高於台幣商品。銀行保險通路與台幣商品之解約行為具有較高關聯性，而利率變動型商品占比較高時，保戶對市場利率變化之敏感程度亦可能提高。此外，匯率變動亦可能影響不同幣別商品之資金流向與解約行為，建議在升息環境與監理制度調整下，壽險公司除應持續強化資產負債管理與流動性風險控管外，亦應審慎調整宣告利率策略、商品結構與通路配置，以提升經營穩定性。研究結果可作為壽險業商品策略、流動性管理及監理政策之參考。

Since 2022, the global economy has entered a rising interest rate cycle, resulting in a rapid increase in market interest rates. Taiwan’s life insurance industry has consequently faced significant challenges, including rising policy surrender payments and changes in cash flow dynamics. In particular, the widening gap between market interest rates and policy declared interest rates may increase policyholders’ incentives to reallocate assets and surrender existing policies, thereby affecting life insurers’ asset-liability management and cash flow stability. Furthermore, under the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standard 17 (IFRS 17) and the Taiwan Insurance Capital Standard (TIS), life insurers are subject to increasingly stringent requirements regarding liquidity management and capital quality.
This study examines six major life insurance companies in Taiwan over the period from January 2020 to December 2025, comprising a total of 432 monthly observations. The study investigates the factors affecting the ratio of surrender benefits to total premium income under a rising interest rate environment. The explanatory variables include the interest rate spread, the proportion of bancassurance business, the proportion of interest-sensitive insurance products, and the exchange rate change of the U.S. dollar against the New Taiwan dollar. Separate empirical models are constructed for New Taiwan dollar (TWD) and U.S. dollar (USD) denominated products, and the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (Pooled OLS) method is employed for empirical analysis.
The empirical results indicate that a widening gap between market interest rates and policy declared interest rates is associated with more pronounced policy surrender behavior and fund outflows. Among the findings, USD-denominated products exhibit greater sensitivity to interest rate changes than TWD-denominated products. The bancassurance channel is more closely associated with surrender behavior in TWD-denominated products, while a higher proportion of interest-sensitive insurance products may increase policyholders’ responsiveness to market interest rate fluctuations. In addition, exchange rate movements may influence fund flows and surrender behavior across products denominated in different currencies. Therefore, under a rising interest rate environment and evolving regulatory requirements, life insurers should continue strengthening asset-liability management and liquidity risk control while prudently adjusting declared interest rate strategies, product structures, and distribution channel allocations to enhance operational stability. The findings of this study may serve as a useful reference for product strategy development, liquidity management, and regulatory policymaking within the life insurance industry.

一、外文文獻
•Kim, C. (2005). Modeling Surrender and Lapse Rates With Economic Variables. North American Actuarial Journal, 9(4), 56–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2005.10596225
•Kuo, W., Tsai, C. and Chen, W.-K. (2003), An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70: 489-508. https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6975.t01-1-00061
二、中文文獻（依作者姓氏筆畫由少至多排序）
•呂佳恆（2025）。以情緒指標預測美元利率變動型終身壽險解約—以T公司為例。天主教輔仁大學金融與國際企業學系金融碩士在職專班碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/hx69u5
•林冠勳（2016）。影響壽險解約行為因素之實證分析。國立政治大學金融學系研究所碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/6jz9b2
•郎天祺（2025）。論人壽保險契約保單價值準備金與解約金作為強制執行客體爭議之研究。國立高雄大學法律學系研究所碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/97tjw3
•粘雅惠（2022）。影響壽險公司解約率之因素。逢甲大學風險管理與保險學系碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/wkz8kj
•張嘉恆（2021）。利率敏感解約模型於利變壽險之評價。東吳大學財務工程與精算數學系碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/c74kvk
•陳素蓉（2016）。投資型保單解約行為分析。東吳大學財務工程與精算數學系碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/zv668a
•陳雅玲（2008）。影響投資型保險商品解約之研究。朝陽科技大學保險金融管理系碩士論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/x366z6
•謝惠珍（2010）。影響壽險保單解約之地區性差異因素分析。國立中正大學經濟學系國際經濟學碩士在職專班論文。https://hdl.handle.net/11296/32kbkc